Over at the original 538 blog, Nate Silver has just posted up an article on the contenders for the seat now held by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ). Sen. Kyl announced his decision to not seek re-election today.
Read Nate’s article, then come here to comment on it.
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I don’t know Arizona politics that well, but it seems to me that Napolitano has the best standing right now, even if she’d have to do a little image rehabilitation after her time in Washington. She was very popular as the governor, so it shouldn’t take much to remind people why they liked her. Just getting her face back in front of them would probably be worth 5 points in her like/approval ratings.
As Nate points out, the current congress-critters are the next likely candidates for an open Senate seat, but there are issues with each of the three. Grijalva is too liberal for statewide, Ed Pastor is quite old, and Gabby’s still in the hospital after being shot in the head. Of the three, I’d give Ed Pastor (age 67) a reasonable shot, because Arizona’s other Senator proves that they don’t have a problem sending really old guys to Washington… Perhaps it’s because there are so many gray-hairs in AZ?
Is there a decent Lt. Gov or Secretary of State that folks might rally behind? Anyone? Buehler?