by Mr. Universe
Greetings. I have returned from the wilderness. For thosenot in the know, I was completing a section hike of the Pacific Crest Trail.Knocked out about 700 miles. It is also why I have not spent a great deal oftime updating the blog. I’ve got a few more miles to do (barring any more firerelated trail closures) to be completely finished with the entire 2,670 miles.But I plan to be more involved with the blog now that I’m nearly done.
In case anyone missed it, Nate put out his House forecastthis past Friday and it does predict a Republican House takeover. I find theidea of Speaker John ‘Agent Orange’ Boehner a frightening enough prospect justin time for Halloween. I think I might see if I can find a Boehner mask ormaybe a Reagan mask and paint it orange and then hit the Halloween parties witha gavel in one hand and a gin and tonic in the other. Pretty scary.
But reviewing Nate’s methodology leaves me with theimpression that he is playing this prediction model fairly safe. If anything,it felt as though it was being overly generous to Republicans. But I alwaysdefer to the experts so I’m inclined to accept this result as accurate. Butwe’re still six weeks out and as the punditocracy is fond of pointing out,that’s an eternity in politics. Anything can happen (fortunately, no one didanything supremely stupid yesterday on 9/11). The general consensus in thepress is that the House will turn red.
Another axiom I keep hearing is that the Republicans wouldhave to ‘run the table’, or win all the lean Republican seats AND the toss-upsto surpass the 218 mark (Nate predicts 225 seats and a 2-in-3 chance of takingthe house). This seems a little unlikely if they truly are toss-ups.
Finally, one thing I am certain about is that the House willbe the Democrats to lose. The Republicans are frothing at the mouth (much of itfrom the media feeding frenzy over Tea Parties, anti-Islamic sentiment, andother fear mongering) to vote in November. Democratic voter turn out will be a critical issue inwhether the consensus comes to pass and complacency over the administration andthe economic climate could be the deciding factor.
I agree with the President in that we have got to keepmoving forward. It won’t be the end of the world to lose the House but it couldbe a potentially damaging lame duck 2nd half of what I think is aPresidency that has yet to hit its stride. Rock the vote.