Turn Left at the Next Election

 

by Mr. Universe

Greetings. I have returned from the wilderness. For thosenot in the know, I was completing a section hike of the Pacific Crest Trail.Knocked out about 700 miles. It is also why I have not spent a great deal oftime updating the blog. I’ve got a few more miles to do (barring any more firerelated trail closures) to be completely finished with the entire 2,670 miles.But I plan to be more involved with the blog now that I’m nearly done.

In case anyone missed it, Nate put out his House forecastthis past Friday and it does predict a Republican House takeover. I find theidea of Speaker John ‘Agent Orange’ Boehner a frightening enough prospect justin time for Halloween. I think I might see if I can find a Boehner mask ormaybe a Reagan mask and paint it orange and then hit the Halloween parties witha gavel in one hand and a gin and tonic in the other. Pretty scary.

But reviewing Nate’s methodology leaves me with theimpression that he is playing this prediction model fairly safe. If anything,it felt as though it was being overly generous to Republicans. But I alwaysdefer to the experts so I’m inclined to accept this result as accurate. Butwe’re still six weeks out and as the punditocracy is fond of pointing out,that’s an eternity in politics. Anything can happen (fortunately, no one didanything supremely stupid yesterday on 9/11). The general consensus in thepress is that the House will turn red.

Another axiom I keep hearing is that the Republicans wouldhave to ‘run the table’, or win all the lean Republican seats AND the toss-upsto surpass the 218 mark (Nate predicts 225 seats and a 2-in-3 chance of takingthe house). This seems a little unlikely if they truly are toss-ups.

Finally, one thing I am certain about is that the House willbe the Democrats to lose. The Republicans are frothing at the mouth (much of itfrom the media feeding frenzy over Tea Parties, anti-Islamic sentiment, andother fear mongering) to vote in November. Democratic voter turn out will be a critical issue inwhether the consensus comes to pass and complacency over the administration andthe economic climate could be the deciding factor.

I agree with the President in that we have got to keepmoving forward. It won’t be the end of the world to lose the House but it couldbe a potentially damaging lame duck 2nd half of what I think is aPresidency that has yet to hit its stride. Rock the vote.


About Mr. Universe

Mr. Universe is a musician/songwriter and an ex-patriot of the south. He currently lives and teaches at a University in the Pacific Northwest. He is a long distance hiker who has hiked the Appalachian Trail and the Pacific Crest Trail. He is also an author and woodworker. An outspoken political voice, he takes a decidedly liberal stance in politics.
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14 Responses to Turn Left at the Next Election

  1. Mainer says:

    Great that you are back in some sort of area that at least has internet cafes Universe man. I can’t imagine hiking with ones lap top so that is what I suspect you are doing. Though in all honesty as I live within only a few miles of an Apalachian trail crossing I have seen some pretty odd things being toted by folks. A pat on the back to you and monotreme for even getting this site up to where it is with every thing else you have going on. I too have been following Nates new site and his and others prognostications and find several things of interest.If the Republicans are so danged sure of their positions and the right poo pooing the president finally giving them a taste of their own medicine. But if the slap down missed the mark and Boehner’s counter offer on the Bush tax cuts so missed the mark why has he so quickly back tracked and moved into a position where he would support keeping them for the middle class if he had to but lamenting how it was still bad policy. Now it is obvious to any one brighter than a rock that that the tan man was retreating but still didn’t understand why. We can only hope that most of the rest of the right flock also either didn’t get the memo from Luntz (just guessing but it is job to put the right words into their mouths)that they needed to back off the yay for the rich for they are the true Americans and our future depends on them theme and they could still get hung on this one very major petard. I also think that the president speaking about this whole Muslim dust up may have hit a few nerves. I think the regressives may find they overplayed this as well, not with their base but with people that can actually think and that do see America in a different light.I still do not see Boehner getting Speaker even if the regressives do get the house. I can’t believe even they would be that ignorant as to put a flat out drunk hack into a position where he might actually be forcedd to run the country…….but then I think of the recent past and I get goosebumps all over. I think one of the young guns will get hte nod if it comes to pass and Boehner will get some kind of token position and a big jug to help him console with.Nate is as always Nate but I really think even the Nate’s of the world are having trouble getting the present political situation to fit known norms. If my gut feelings are as far off as they are predicting then I must now be seeing the results of too many bowls of my good home cooked chili and the ole gut is just not functioning as before. Will the Dems take some serious hits this fall? Only a fool would say otherwise. Are they about to be exterminated across this land? The gut still says no. Guess time will tell will it not? GOTV Dems and progressive Indies then let us see what the regressives do if their great wave doesn’t occure…..will we actually get to see some of those Second Ammendement solutions we hear of tried out?

  2. Mr Universe says:

    Okay, moderation has been disabled. Cry Havoc! And let loose the chaos.Sorry for leaving you hanging out there, Mainer

  3. Mainer says:

    It shall be interesting. Hey man I just wanted to see this up and running. Still think it way great that you have taken the time and effort to do it. Hey will there be any new music inspired from this trek? Remember now “Rocky Mountain High” has already been done. Oh wait wrong mountains….right?

  4. Mr Universe says:

    Funny you should ask. When I was approaching the Oregon state line I was thinking to myself how there aren’t any good songs about the state. So I started writing one (of course Rocky Mountain High kept creeping into my thoughts: those big skies seem to call out for that kind of anthem). I had to be careful picking my rhyming words as there’s always an impulse to mispronounce Oregon It’s Or-ee-gun for those who don’t know. Some say, Ar-ee-gun but never Or-reh-gon. FYI And yep, we have the Cascades Mountains. Maybe it’ll be the state song someday, who knows?

  5. Mainer says:

    I hate to keep taking up space on here but keep hoping to see some of the old crowdd at some point. I am going to troll for some later tonight on Nates site and see if I get posted. Better that I do it than one of you that is directly associated with the site. Think I will refer to is as a fan site though as I think that was apt and a good way to go. I still really like Nates work though I keep getting the feeling that he and the rest of the numbers crunching world are getting punked to the max this time around.Has any one been able to find out if there is going to be a strong Dem GOTV or has Kane completly dropped the ball. I am uncomfortable with his never seeming to be out there leading. I do not want a Steele and he isn’t a Dean but is he still breathing?I keep hearing prognostications of job suffles in the administration we should play the game. Who should get what. You know fantasy politics rather than fantasy football or the fantasy fishing I get wrapped up in.

  6. Mainer says:

    Wish I had known where you were treking. I would have tried to hook you up with a friend that owns a brew pub up that way. One gets thirsty treking right? Used to be an outdoors program up here that used the song “I love to go a wandering” as its theme and I always pictured hikers joining in chorus as they treked north and South up here…….probably not but it was an image.

  7. shiloh says:

    No moderation, praise the lord!Again Mr. U, thanx for your efforts re: this blog. :)>Profiles in NYT’s political censorship, Volume 1:@BartWhat Angle did not state or imply was that Reid should be shot if he was reelected.~~~~~~~~~~It is interesting you know what Angle is stating or implying when most in the media er rational folk believe she has no clue what she is trying to say her own self as she is bat sh*t crazy in her archaic beliefs or lack thereof.And again Bart, where were all these radical teabaggers, like yourself lol when cheney/bush were FUBAR’ing America every which way but loose from 2001 to 2009.Just wonderin’take care, blessings~~~~~~~~~~Not sure what didn’t pass muster lol bat shit crazy or maybe teabaggers ;)>One of my favorite NYT’s posts so far …mrnoahNew YorkAugust 26th, 201012:37 pmRe: NateWhy do waste your great intellectual and econometric talents on something as useless and pointless as politics?~~~~~~~~~~>hmm, state songs:“Tin soldiers and Nixon coming,We’re finally on our own.This summer I hear the drummingFour dead in Ohio.” >I went back to OhioBut my city was goneThere was no train stationThere was no downtownSouth Howard had disappearedAll my favorite placesMy city had been pulled downReduced to parking spacesAy! Oh! Where did you go, Ohio?>What a longgg strange trip it’s been …carry on

  8. Mainer says:

    A strange world we live in and my fear is that it is about to get much stranger and possibly more violent. I fear daily that certain elements in our soceity have been given free rein to do some pretty bad things and those that have loosed that rein will work very hard to disavow any connection to that which they have set in motion. You mention what happened to so many of our cities when urban renewal only went the first steps and then was subverted by the political process. Sadly I believe we will now see the same but to a much harder degree.

  9. Monotreme says:

    So, if I masturbate to Christine O’Donnell’s photograph, is that a BAD thing?

  10. filistro says:

    I just consulted the Teaper Book of Rules and Ethics (’tis a slender volume) and it’s apparently okay to masturbate to Christine’s photo if you also simultaneously read the Bible.However considering the unique anatomical endowments of monotremes, it’s possible you would not have a free hand to hold the Bible, and thus would be in deep trouble.I’m leafing ahead to “Censures and Punishments” and will get back to you.

  11. shiloh says:

    Yesterday made a post at The Times that used the word masturbate twice! 😉 and it was rejected.Mentioned O’Donnell wouldn’t get any DE Independent votes if she’s totally against, wait for it … masturbation!just sayin’Thrice as nice! 🙂

  12. filistro says:

    shiloh Yesterday made a post at The Times that used the word masturbate twice! and it was rejected.LOL… me too! I changed it to “self-abuse” and got it passed.Makes me wonder how much Muley would have to clean up his game in order to vent his emotions over there:”I will disembowel and eviscerate you like a water-dwelling vertebrate….”

  13. Mr Universe says:

    I..am…dying…from…laughter.

  14. honeymoon says:

    You can still see the unemployment levels are high even after a few years of the recession first hitting. I like the fact that they try to call it a double dip recession vs calling it a depression but if it goes down for travel a couple years, then goes up briefly should it “count” as wiping the slate clean…You can see the effects in the honeymoons industry as people did not have the disposable income to book cruises or other activities that cost a pretty heft entertainment fund. Same is true with global brands joining other brands such as flight center to recapture lost market share…whatever happens people need jobs or they will begin to riot…once the unemployment checks stop.

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