This past weeks’ primaries have changed the political landscape a bit. The obvious difference being the Delaware results. Since Mike Castle’s defeat combined with Christine O’Donnell’s low popularity numbers and whacky political positions, there is a renewed hope for a Delaware Democratic win in November. Nate’s model is closer to 53 seats in the Senate with Charlie Crists’ chances lessening in Florida.
The House races have also tightened with Nate showing close to 212 Democratic seats as opposed to the 209 from last week. But, we are still six weeks out from the November elections.
In other news, Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert have finally announced that they will hold their own rallies in Washington D.C. on October 30th. This should be really fun and it will be interesting to see how many people show up. The plus side is that the rallies are just before election day so take that, Glenn Beckenstein. I wish I could make it.
It is beginning to look less like a ‘bloodbath of epicproportions’ (to quote one of our more infamous trolls) and more like a pyrrhic piranhic feeding frenzy. Besides, tea parties are for little girls with make believe friends. And the Republicans are going to need all the friends they can get, even if they have to make some up. I can hardly wait for November 3rd. I’ve never been more excited about a mid-term election than this one. Just think of the things that could be accomplished if Democrats retain control of both houses. I know, I know; if they have the cajones to do it. They better, because they’re not likely to be handed an opportunity like this again.
538 Refugees 
I LOVE the idea of the competing rallies! There’s nobody on earth who so richly deserves to be mocked as Glenn Beck. Jon Stewart, about his own rally: “We’re PASSIONATE! We’re COMMITTED! WE’RE FIRED UP!!! And we’ll be gone by six, because we have sitters.”
“I can hardly wait for November 3rd. I’ve never been more excited about a mid-term election than this one.”Me too! I expect some big surprises… and so do folks I know who are “in the know.” Bart and his ilk… (my, that’s a cute little ilk, what breed is it, does anybody know?)… are making a key mistake. They think Dems don’t care about this election because they’re not running around acting like Teapers who are all tricked out in knee pants and tricorne hats, carrying muskets and spilling their guts to pollsters and anyone else who’ll listen.Something is changing out there. GOTV Dems have been burrowing away busily for some time, and the hum is getting louder. Since I came home I can hear it all the way up here. Bring it on!
Can someone start a thread for predictions?We can also set up a pool or pools for the closest predictions.
@Bartwe Kimosabe ?!?Fili is so right when she say Bart is too cute! 😉 as he has been makin’ nothin’ but inane political predictions his whole life hopin’/prayin’ his beloved teabaggers er rank and file Reps always remain in the majority …Bart hyperventilating 24/7 re: Obama and the Dems DePalma.one trick ponies are jealous! ;)take care, blessings
I’m glad to see shiloh still has nothing intelligent to say.
Here are the new Freeper projections for the House vote:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2591809/postsKnowing them as well as I do, I’m beginning to sense a tiny pulse of anxiety under all the bravado and talk of tsunamis. Their main little nagging concern… “How come, when everything is trending our way, we aren’t starting to show a lot more pickups?”To which I would say (if I hadn’t been instantly banned from FR about five years ago..).. “THINK ABOUT IT, DUDES!!!”
Bart,I gave you the chance to bet on your predictions. Months ago. I even followed your rules. You proposed the bet. I accepted. By your rules. You weasled out. You didn’t have the balls to live up to your own bet. Too bad for you.
@shrinkersBart is all hat, no cattle …@GrogIs this the same intuitive Grog who asked me how could I still be an Ohio State football fan when Jim Tressel is a Republican?Rhetorical question.My reply: Grog, how can you function on a daily basis when you have to commingle w/liberals everywhere you look.OK, everywhere but WY, ID and OK. ;)btw, Tressel could be an Islamo/Fascist and it wouldn’t matter as long as he keeps beating Michigan …and Grog is still reading all my posts as I am truly humbled! :)take care, blessings
“take that, Glenn Beckenstein.”=============Geez, Monotreme, the man’s name is BECK. Glenn Beck. I find it fascinating that you decide to make somebody Jewish because you don’t like them. Are you just another anti-semitic left-winger? How does this advance your arguments? Last I checked, the guy was a Mormon. Perhaps he had Jewish ancestry. So did Jesus and the 12 disciples. Why is it so important to you?And you happily go on saying that the right is prejudiced…..
Bart,Yes. They’re called InTrade and Iowa Electronic Markets. I already have my “bet” (or prediction) to the tune of $200 in at IEM. You’re welcome to take the other side, that’s how free markets work.
I am not the author of the above parent post. My name shows up as author by default. This is a glitch in the blogging software. It was discussed in a prior thread.I don’t know who the author of the above post is. I’m sure that he or she will identify him- or herself soon enough.
Besides, tea parties are for little girls with make believe friends.What a great line- someone should make a bumper sticker of that one!
Hey, it’s Jungle Jim! Welcome to the party (I wish we had wv’s here… you’re such an awesome wv’er….)But it’s great to see you in the room. We can always use some more sharp-edged leftie wit 🙂
Hi Filistro, I’ve missed you so much! And I’m so glad you posted on the NYT comment thread, otherwise, I wouldn’t have found you!
” I find it fascinating that you decide to make somebody Jewish because you don’t like them. Are you just another anti-semitic left-winger? “Jeff,It’s me, Mr. Universe who is responsible for the post. I haven’t figured out how to remove Monotreme’s name from the posting. And I was making reference to Frankenstein and not slamming Jews. It didn’t even occur to me that adding ‘stein’ would be a Jewish insult. Sorry. No insult was intended. I still think Glenn Beck is a monster. How about Glenn Beckula?
What a bunch of wusses.Right now, using the academics charts, the generic polling translates into the GOP pulling 54% of the national vote which in turn translates into 238-244 seats (GOP +60 to 66 seats) depending whether you are using the Abromowitz or Gallup charts, respectively.http://www.pollster.com/blogs/alan_abramowitz_on_turning_hou.phphttp://www.gallup.com/poll/124010/generic-ballot-provides-clues-2010-vote.aspxThis assumes the normal GOP advantage among likely voters since 1946. Of course, we are seeing historic conservative and GOP enthusiasm advantages.I am waiting for the Gallup LV polling to come in October. Abromowitz has published a nice chart which translates the Gallup LV poll results to house seats.http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010091601/Gallup has been reporting historic GOP advantages in enthusiasm and following the election for weeks now, so the differential between the Gallup RV numbers (recently averaging around GOP+5) and their LV numbers should be equally historic. See Abromowitz’s discussion of this subject here:http://www.pollster.com/blogs/abramowitz_registered_vs_likel.php
As I explained above, I’m in for $200. You, Bart? I believe in free markets, you see.As far as House projections, it depends on who you listen to. Since you’re cherry-picking, this site says a minimum of 220 Democratic house seats, even if all ties go to the Republicans.
oooohhhh. We got a wager going on? I didn’t anticipate that. And I don’t know how to manage it either. All kinds of possibilities when you’re off the grid, I guess. How you fellas want to do this?
Mr. U:My wager is posted up at the Iowa Electronic Markets. I suggest Mr. DePalma do the same. Nut up or shut up.
Link to http://www.electoral-vote.com did not embed in my previous post. That analyst has a minimum of 220 House seats going to the Democrats, and some fairly pointed things to say about Mr. Silver.As I said earlier, my money’s posted up over at IEM at 2-to-1 odds. You see, I believe in free markets.
Bart,Once again. I think you’ve been called out. Money=mouth. shrinkers has never been fully satisfied in the last wager. Man up and do the gentlemanly thing. We’re all big boys here. You get bragging rights if you win.
Bart,5-to-1 odds against your claimed Senate tsunami..A true believer like you should jump on that.
Don’t know why my links aren’t embedding tonight.Free money, Bart. Go for it.http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Senate10.cfm
You realize Rassmussen is the basis for most of those polls, right?
Mono:The IEM has already factored in the near certainty that the GOP takes the House and I can’t make much money there. In contrast, if we set up a pool here, I have an excellent chance of being the closest predication and winning multiples of my wager because none of you will be honest enough to predict a realistic GOP gain of seats in the House.I am less sure where you folks will be in your Senate predictions, but I suspect that that wager is likely to be far closer because of the comparatively few seats at issue. GOP +8 or +9 seats in the Senate race would be a large wave election result and the most likely result. The GOP has to darn near sweep the table to take control of the Senate. However, I would like to see if the Johnson lead in WI is verified by additional polling and whether the GOP goes home a couple weeks after the DE primary. If so, the GOP could very well take the seats it needs in the Senate.
Bart: I didn’t say House. My bet is for Democrats in House to be at 218+. My bet is in. Go make $5 for every $1 you put in for Republican Senate control, or STFU about it.
I don’t actually gamble, Bart. But I’m going all in with Monotreme on this one. You lose the House and Senate. I got a good feeling on this one.Mr. Universe
“take that, Glenn Beckenstein.”=============Geez, Monotreme, the man’s name is BECK. Glenn Beck. I find it fascinating that you decide to make somebody Jewish because you don’t like them. Are you just another anti-semitic left-winger? How does this advance your arguments? Last I checked, the guy was a Mormon. Perhaps he had Jewish ancestry. So did Jesus and the 12 disciples. Why is it so important to you?And you happily go on saying that the right is prejudiced…..
Don’t mean to repeat myself….
@Monotremeor STFU about it.~~~~~~~~~~Again, Bartles is all hat and no cattle!Indeed, reputations will be made or crushed by the 2010 election as the 2008 election was child’s play ie bush’s job approval was 24% Oct. 2008 and the economy was going off a cliff.Only fools like Rudy, Charles, Bart, Jeff, Grog, PK, Walker, MPM etc. were counting on hoping/praying 😉 The Bradley Effect to kick in.Sorry 🙂 69.5 million votes later 538’s wingers were all in the fetal position in need of Bartle’s Obamacare lol>Indeed, Bartles really needs to thank Mr. U for giving him an outlet for all his teabaggin’ yahoo pent-up frustrations as the boy is as happy as a pig in shit to be able to share his nonsense once again at an even more liberal blog than Nate provided. ;)>Too funny how many winger troll lemmings have relocated to this progressive shadow blog run by die hard Dems unlike Nate’s old blog.Yea, Liberal Refugees.com is in operation and many of the hyperbolic 538 lemming trolls have come aboard.All is well! :)>Again Bart, your wife is quite the fortunate gal to be married to a one trick pony teabagger like you. How’d she get soooo damn lucky! 🙂 er what were the odds.btw, since you’re 100% convinced the Reps will regain control of the House, surely you’re giving 10 to 1 odds that they won’t, eh.As Monotreme said quite eloquently ~ Shut the fuck up! or put you’re money on the table dude …take care, blessings
@JeffDon’t mean to repeat myself….~~~~~~~~~~Then don’t … but you’re bogged down in irrelevant racial minutia like most yahoo conservatives, so you just can’t help yourself, eh.
Bart,Re-reading your post, I can see what the problem is: you want to make the rules, then alter the rules to suit your taste, and only then will you place a so-called “bet” that is under your control.See, free markets don’t work that way. The rules are set outside any one individual’s control, and then we all have to play within the rules as they are established — by others.Why do you hate free markets so?
Monotreme::::chuckle:::The art of making money at gambling is to set the terms of the wager in your favor, not to just dutifully accept what others set.This is also the epitome of free markets, where terms are set by an agreement between the parties involved. I use to make a good chunk of extra money in the Army having fans set their own homeboy spreads on how much their team would win by and then take their money on their terms.You folks appear to be smart enough not to waste your money on your wishful thinking about the election posed here.Ah well, it was worth a try.
Ah, Bart, we’re just smart to know that when YOU make the rules, you also leave yourself wiggle room for when you lose. As you did with the wager that YOU proposed and I accepted, and then you ran away from.Here’s my prediction: regardless of what happens, the Tea Baggers will declare it to be a TSUNAMI OF EPIC PROPORTIONS!Care to wager against that one, Bart?
@Monotreme,http://www.electoral-vote.com has updated their projections, and now give the Dems at least 222 seats, the R’s 181, and 32 tossups.
@Shrinkers,Thanks. That’s what he’s had up for a few days now; I just mis-typed.At any rate, I feel pretty good about buying “Democrats Hold House” at about $0.50. It’s down from that now, but I think it’s a pretty good 50-50 bet. I could’ve made more if I waited, but as I said, I’m all in now.I started with $100 but made some pretty good timing bets during the 2008 cycle, so I had money to play with. I made plenty on Obama (and on shorting Clinton) but lost some on Romney because I underestimated the crazy factor in the Republicans. I ended up with about $150. If this fails, I will put some back in for 2012 but if it succeeds, I’ll have $290 to roll into the 2012 contest.
Shrinkers:You did not offer a number of seats the Dems would gain, thus you did not accept my Dem suckers wager last Spring.If you are ready to stop playing games, I suggest two pools – one for the House and one for the Senate. Anyone who wishes can email in an anonymous prediction of the number of GOP seats in the House and Senate after the 2010 election to an agreed upon address so there is no gaming off of each other’s predictions. Whoever is closest to the actual results wins.Does this sound fair to you?
shrinkers… now that’s a fascinating link. I wonder if Bart will have any comment on it.Probably not… Bart seems to have an extremely opaque filter that screens out anything not in line with his pre-written narrative. I’m actually considering a Bartles bet since I think there’s money to be made from his self-delusion. I just don’t know how to collect without blowing my anonymity… and I don’t really need any of Bart’s hard-earned cash. Maybe if I’m right, he has to donate my winnings to Planned Parenthood? 🙂
@Bart”You did not offer a number of seats the Dems would gain,”Yes I did. I offered a negative number. You did not state the estimate had to be positive. YOUR rules did not disallow negative estimates. You’re a lawyer (or so you claim). I obeyed the rules as stated. YOU weasled out.
Mtreme… is “Dems hold house” at 50-50 now at IEM? (I’m moderately bright but I simply CAN’T figure out how to navigate that site, and I always wind up at a dead end, then get cranky and kick my desk, and that hurts my sore foot :-(But I digress….Intrade has Dem chances of holding around 30, but that reflects a recent fairly sharp rise. I don’t think Intrade is all that good for predictive purposes (especially further out) because it’s so sensitive to individual trades.Still, all the numbers there are trending downward for Reps in the last week. I guess maybe the entire national thumb is prickling.Except of course, for the Freepers, who are exulting this morning about Wisconsin where they see (and I quote) “a surging Johnson.”LOL..
“a surging Johnson.”Oh my gods, I hope he’s a Teabagger.
You guys wanna play on a rigged roulette wheel, be my guests.At the very least I would make Bart pay his losing bet to ACORN or SEIU. I think we all agree that the number of Democratic seats lost in the House will be between 30 and 50, with the mean and median very close to the “tipping point” of 218 (minus 39 seats from the levels in the 111th Congress).Only a few looney-tunes True Believers have ever tried to claim something outside of this range. For example, to get to 47 Democratic seats lost, the Republicans would have to “run the table” in all the Cook Political Report toss-ups. That might happen if the Republicans were playing their hand well, but the self-professed “blow up the RINOs” attitude will likely knock 10 or 20 seats off that list, I would predict.
I think the good thing is that the Republicans have built up expectations so high that anything less than them taking over the House will be viewed as a disappointment from their perspective.I know that at this point I will be happy with the Democrats holding onto the House & the Senate even if it’s by their fingernails… although I don’t want it to be so close that Lieberman has real power (we need at least 52 Dems in the Senate counting Lieberman) and there should be some cushion in the House in case of blue to red switcheroos. But I think the thing is… if the Dems can hold on and get some great things done in the next two years and things really begin to recover from the prospective of the average American that this could be it for the Republicans. Their final gasp so to speak.Here’s hoping.
As long as everybody else is fantasizing about the election outcome…. (What part of “more than six weeks to go” is unclear?)My basic premise is that financial panics generally take 7-10 years before there’s a recovery. My hope for the election is 216 R in the House, and 49 or 50 in the Senate (tie goes to Biden). Let Republicans take 30-32 governors, and make major gains in the state legislatures (re-apportionment is at hand). Let Pelosi, Schumer (or Durbin) and Obama be the public face of the ruling cabal for two more years, and continue to take the blame for a lousy economy. I don’t care about Delaware, but I’d love to see Reid and Boxer lose.I don’t see much in the way of economic improvement for the next few years, especially considering the wackadoodle economic policies so beloved by this regime. But with an effective congressional veto, at least the most foolish ideas can be derailed. Then, in 2012, Bart’s deluge, followed by repeal of ObamaCare. You all should be careful of what you wish for…..
@Jonny V **I think the good thing is that the Republicans have built up expectations so high that anything less than them taking over the House will be viewed as a disappointment from their perspective.***That’s exactly what I’ve been thinking about lately. Imagine for a moment if the tsunami falls short… if it’s not even a wave, just a wimpy little slap around the ankles. Consider the aftermath.All those people running around in knee pants and tricorne hats are going to look really, REALLy silly, aren’t they? All the “patriots” howling about the death of America and bloodbath of epic proportions and 2nd Amendment remedies… aren’t they just going to look incredibly, pathetically lame?I’ll grant it’s a gamble. If they do win really big, they’re going to look pretty powerful and threatening. But if they lose big, they’re just going to look LUDICROUS.
@filistro –You’re right about how silly they’ll look. But we will undoubtedly hear how good the news is for John McCain (or Sarah Palin). See, they’ll claim they’ve made a point, and that the reason they did not run the table is that they weren’t crazy enough. I still hold to my prediction — that, regardless of how many seats the R’s do or don’t win, it will be billed as an epic landslide for their guys. And the MSM will play it that way.
@shrinkers… ***regardless of how many seats the R’s do or don’t win, it will be billed as an epic landslide for their guys. And the MSM will play it that way***I’m not so sure. That’s the way the media is trending now because pre-election, the media loves to push either a “horse-race” or a “landslide” meme, because both are kind of sexy.Post-election they tend to anoint the winner and diss the loser in endless pundit post-mortems. (What contributed to X’s “unexpected” success? And why did Y fall short?)Which raises the question… at what level would the GOP be generally deemed to have “failed?” A gain of 10 seats? Twenty? Enough to give a bare but fragile majority?
“Which raises the question… at what level would the GOP be generally deemed to have “failed?” “Kind of a trick question. Republican governance has, for the last 30 years or so, nearly always failed.