If we want to be an actual, legitimate “shadow blog,” I guess (sigh) we need to formally address the issue of the Tea Party, since Nate is now tackling that naughty problem (sorry, I meant knotty problem, I must have been thinking about Christine O’Donnell) over on his front page.
There’s really no telling what the coming election will bring, Tea-Party-wise, though theories abound. What will potential Teaper successes mean for the American political landscape? I foresee only two possibilities in that event… either they will become a legitimate third party, or they will drag the existing Republican party significantly to the right. Either result will, I think, mark the beginning of quite a long period in the desert for the .
More interesting is what consequences we might see from electoral failures caused by off-putting Teaper activism…to say nothing of really, really weird candidates. Again, theories abound. Right here at “538Refugees,” shrinkers thinks the Teapers will be simply emboldened by any tiny success and use the victimhood aspect of defeat to their advantage, and they will just keep…on…coming… at… you. I disagree. I think if they are seen as sabotaging this huge opportunity for Republicans, the furious weight of the right-wing establishment will come down on them with crushing force and we’ll barely hear a muffled squeak out of them afterward.
Nate, that sly diplomat, is straddling the fence: “ If Republican candidates do well on –- and particularly if Tea Party-backed candidates like Rand Paul of Kentucky and of Nevada win their races -– the Tea Party will be credited with having revived a moribund Republican Party. But if the Republicans fail to live up to expectations — and expectations are exceedingly high –- the Tea Party will be blamed for curbing the Republicans’ ability to capitalize on historic levels of voter dissatisfaction.”
Still, I believe Nate is coming down somewhat more on my side than shrinkers. He IS… isn’t he?
I’m interested in what all of you think on two fronts: how will the Teapers impact the coming election.. will their contribution ultimately turn out to be a net positive or negative? And looking ahead, what impact (if any) do you think they will have on the national scene going into 2012 and beyond?
All opinions welcome. References to witchcraft, dinosaurs, birth certificates and 2nd Amendment Remedies warmly encouraged.