Canaries and Coal Mines

Survey USA has just front-paged an astonishing poll showing Rand Paul‘s support plummeting by double digits, and Conway closing the gap to a statistical tie. The internals are especially fascinating… (and admittedly controversial.)
You can see the poll results here: http://www.surveyusa.com/
So what do you think? Is this poll a massive outlier, or a straw in the wind?  I think it’s the first indicator of a massive national shift. The momentum is turning, thanks to a long, slow  build-up of Tea party negatives that has suddenly reached critical mass.  And I’m fairly certain this poll is not an outlier… it’s a harbinger of things to come.
Dems have begun deploying their massive ad buys in critical markets. Voters are paying attention. The GOP base is grumbling and dispirited by the Pledge to America, which just doesn’t look crazy enough to suit them. And Tea Party candidates all over the country are making the fatal mistake of telling us what they really think. When we do the post-game analysis we’re going to say, “Yup, the last week in September… that was when it all started turning around.”
Something is happening. Hold onto your hats.

 


About filistro

Filistro is a Canadian writer and prairie dog who maintains burrows on both sides of the 49th parallel. Like all prairie dogs, she is keenly interested in politics and language. (Prairie dogs have been known to build organized towns the size of Maryland, and are the only furry mammal with a documented language.)
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85 Responses to Canaries and Coal Mines

  1. filistro says:

    “Yup, the last week in September… that was when it all started turning around.” Come to think of it… isn’t that pretty much what we were all saying at the end of 2008? 😉

  2. Realist says:

    I sure hope it’s a harbinger of things to come. Color me cautiously optimistic.

  3. shiloh says:

    Conway is a known candidate/proven politician:Conway won the Attorney General election on November 6, 2007, against his Republican opponent, Lexington State Representative Stan Lee, with 60.5 percent to 39.5 percent.Whereas Rand Paul is an ophthalmologist who has difficulty 😉 conveying his stance on every issue and is now totally avoiding MSM as he hopes a Ruby Red state, Rep enthusiasm is enough to get him elected.>(If) he loses, it will be much like “Macaca” Allen ~ Grasping defeat from the Jaws of Victory! :)Also much like Bush43 ~ riding on daddy’s coattails er using the family name to skate by …

  4. Bart DePalma says:

    When the canary is underwater, does it make a sound?http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4FAA9E14-DEDB-7F90-51BB28FB8E7374FA

  5. shiloh says:

    @BartlesWhen the canary is underwater, does it make a sound?~~~~~~~~~~Is that why Rand Paul has stopped talkin’ to the media …take care, blessings

  6. Bart DePalma says:

    Filistro:The NYT had an article on the parties’ relative media strategies over the weekend, noting that the Dems are concentrating on personal attacks while the GOP is hammering on the Dem incumbents’ voting records. Perhaps the lowest attack so far is against a S Fla GOP challenger, where the Dems claimed the Rep was a tax dodger because the IRS placed a lien on his home while the then Army officer was incommunicado fighting in Afghanistan. For good measure, the Dems published his SS number.However, the Times assures us these scumbag tactics are OK because it is part of a strategy to localize the elections.Aren’t you proud?

  7. filistro says:

    Bart, you really need to start reading your own links before posting, this is getting embarrassing.From your link: Forty-six percent believe Democrats in Congress will better handle the issue of turning around the economy — an almost 10-percentage-point spike since the last Battleground Poll nearly two weeks ago...and this…The president remains more popular than Sarah Palin, the most recognizable top Republican to voters. By an 8-point margin, voters would back Obama over Palin if the vote were today, and support for her is weak in the Midwest and the Northeast. So there’s the whole narrative all neatly tied up. Concentrate hard, Bart, and try to follow the bouncing ball. I’ll even do bullet points to make it easy for you:* we have a race that’s now shaping up to be a “choice” election. * the choice is between the Tea Party and the Dems.* the nominal leader of the Tea Party trails the nominal leader of the Dems by an 8 point margin* Rand Paul, the second-most recognizable Tea Party politician, has just dropped by double digits in a recent pollAre you seeing it yet, Bart? Or I should say…CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW???? 🙂

  8. shiloh says:

    Bartles, by definition, hammering incumbents’ voting records. er (political positions) both Rep and Dem are personal attacks ie negative campaigning.You may recall 😉 the 2008 election and anti-Obama ad nauseam political ads, eh.>Just wanted to explain politics 101 to you er the obvious!take care, blessings

  9. filistro says:

    @Bart scumbag tactics… Aren’t you proud?Actually, yes I sort of am :-)After watching the GOP’s shameless, hideously unpatriotic performance in Congress over the past two years… their relentless obstructionism and cynical, opportunistic whining and hypocritcal voting en bloc against policies they once SPONSORED THEMSELVES… you know, I don’t much care HOW any of them get beaten.I will just avert my eyes from the messy spectacle (and hope they’re suffering quite a lot.)

  10. Alki says:

    Its not just KY. It looks like Dems are coming home in CA:CA-Gov/CA-Sen: Dems start feeling some California lovehttp://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/9/25/905249/-CA-Gov-CA-Sen:-Dems-start-feeling-some-California-love\Hmmmm…..isn’t it the Gold State that starts the trends in this country?

  11. Realist says:

    @Bart,filistro may be proud. I’m not. But I’m also not one of those “my party, right or wrong” kind of people. From your observations last week regarding DADT, you clearly are one of those kind of people. Aren’t you proud?

  12. shiloh says:

    @Alkiisn’t it the Gold State that starts the trends in this country?~~~~~~~~~~My sister bought a pair of bell-bottoms when we visited CA in 1965.carry on

  13. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “From your link: Forty-six percent believe Democrats in Congress will better handle the issue of turning around the economy — an almost 10-percentage-point spike since the last Battleground Poll nearly two weeks ago.”And yet they want to vote the Dems out and repeal their agenda according to the same poll.F: “..and this…The president remains more popular than Sarah Palin, the most recognizable top Republican to voters.”I have to sadly concede that Barack Obama would likely win the 2010 presidential election if the GOP candidate were Sarah Palin.F: “* we have a race that’s now shaping up to be a “choice” election… the choice is between the Tea Party and the Dems.”You better hope not. The Tea Party has higher approval 42% than either party in nearly every poll including the above Battleground poll. Being tied to the Tea Party by the Dems can only help the GOP.I am picturing the scene after the Titanic sunk with you playing the heroine clinging to the piano top.

  14. shrinkers says:

    Let me also point out —The GOteaPer candidate for governor of Minnesota is trailing badly against the Democrat — former Senator Marc Dayton, one of the most liberal Senators who were in the body at the time, a protege of Paul Wellstone, and a successful local businessman.Just had to mention. Minnesota is going to be a switch from a Republican Teaper-wannabe to a way liberal Democrat. And the former occupant — Tim “Skippy the WonderGov” Pawlenty — is running for President. Just like Sarah “Former Half-Governor” Palin.Teapers have peaked. Now they’re into denial, as their numbers plummet.By the way, Bart, a serious question — those chickens you’ve been counting — have any of them hatched yet? Seriously, name me a single Teaper who has actually been elected anywhere.

  15. Bart DePalma says:

    shrinkers wrote: “By the way, Bart, a serious question — those chickens you’ve been counting — have any of them hatched yet? Seriously, name me a single Teaper who has actually been elected anywhere.”Scott Brown and Chris Christie. Brown only won because of Tea Party money, volunteers and votes which he actively solicited.

  16. shrinkers says:

    filistro –Teapers are excited. Teapers are the base of the Republican Party. Teapers dominated the news for months before the campaign ever began.Now we have a campaign. Anyone who isn’t a political wonk has begun to pay attention. They don’t like Teapers. They’re not impressed with what the Democrats have been able to accomplish (not being wonks, they’re not entirely aware of the extent to which the Republicans have been obstructing the business of government). But they dislike the Republicans a hellufalot more, remembering that a Republican Presidente and a Republican Congress (opposite of Progress) threw them out of work and tanked the world economy.Now that people are paying attention, and now that the Dems are spending the huge somes of money they acquired for the actual campaign, the number may well change. Also, President Obama — who, even Bart will admit, is a good campaigner — is now on the tour.2 to 1, Americans wanted the Health Care bill to do more than it did. Do you think they blame the Republicans or the Democrats for the fact that it is limited? Americans want more jobs. When they hear that the Republicans have been standing in the way of a jobs bill, who will they blame?Americans actually like Social Security and Medicare. When they hear the GOteaPer Party wants to repeal these, who will they favor in the fall?Just askin’.

  17. shrinkers says:

    Scott Brown and Chris Christie. Brown only won because of Tea Party money, volunteers and votes which he actively solicited.Scott Brown is not a Teaper. And people in MASS at the time confirmed the election was about local issues, not Teaper nonsense. Don’t pretend otherwise. They hate him. You’re not fooling anybody. Chris Christie? A Teaper? Because he mouths crap about budgets? My gods, you’re delusional.

  18. Realist says:

    @shrinkers,2 to 1, Americans wanted the Health Care bill to do more than it did. Do you think they blame the Republicans or the Democrats for the fact that it is limited?Given that we’re talking about those who are mostly not political wonks? They’ll blame the Democrats. After all, they know the Ds control the House, Senate (with a filibuster-proof majority), and the Presidency. Anything they didn’t get was their own damn fault.The nuances of government can be a little too subtle at times.

  19. Alki says:

    @Shilohisn’t it the Gold State that starts the trends in this country?~~~~~~~~~~My sister bought a pair of bell-bottoms when we visited CA in 1965.Thanks for answering my question. 😉

  20. Alki says:

    Joe Biden to Democrats: ‘Stop whining’http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42789.html

  21. shrinkers says:

    Given that we’re talking about those who are mostly not political wonks? They’ll blame the Democrats. You may be right. But then, the GOteaPers are going to take “credit” for it. So maybe not. We’ll have to see.

  22. GROG says:

    shrinky said:”2 to 1, Americans wanted the Health Care bill to do more than it did. Do you think they blame the Republicans or the Democrats for the fact that it is limited?”Any sources to back that up?”Americans want more jobs. When they hear that the Republicans have been standing in the way of a jobs bill, who will they blame?”Americans overwhelmingly do not want another failed stimulus bill with a phoney name like “jobs bill”. You guys still haven’t figured out that Americans are sick and tired of our Government spending billions of dollars we don’t have on more failed Government policies.This is why you guys are going to lose badly in November. No matter what Rand Pauls numbers look like in some surveyusa poll.

  23. shrinkers says:

    “2 to 1, Americans wanted the Health Care bill to do more than it did. Do you think they blame the Republicans or the Democrats for the fact that it is limited?”Any sources to back that up?Yes, Grog. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gSXIViw_RWvU3uweKkhKfhAVGgqgD9IF4ET80Jean posted that over the weekend.Americans overwhelmingly do not want another failed stimulus bill with a phoney name like “jobs bill”. You’re right. They don’t want “phoney”. They want jobs.The Stimulus Bill saved millions of jobs. But “saved” is not the same as “gave back.” The people who have lost their jabs want to go back to work. Unfortunately, there is not longer time before the election to pass a new bill, and for it to take effect. So if the Republicants stand in the way, and if they gain enough seats in Congress to stop it for another two years, the ire of the public will be directed squarely at them. And that works for me.

  24. shrinkers says:

    Sorry for all the typos. I have been writing all day. Fingers tired. Need scotch.

  25. shiloh says:

    Again Bartles for the umpteenth time, Scott Brown won because Coakley didn’t show up er campaign.Kinda like Angle/Paul/O’Donnell all may lose, eh.90 percent of life is just showing up! ~ Woody AllenIf you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen! ~ Harry S. Truman

  26. shrinkers says:

    Monotreme, great minds, think alike, etc.

  27. Bart DePalma says:

    Dem Senate candidate Manchin is calling for the partial repeal of Obamacare without saying what he would keep.Wonder what his internal polling is telling him.

  28. shrinkers says:

    Bart,Manchin is running for the Senate in West Virginia. It is a red state. His polling is telling him that West Virginia is a red state. What did you expect?Duh.Really, Bart, how many straws can you grasp at one time?By the way, can you furnish a link to Manchin’s position on HCR? That would be helpful. Thanks.And while you’re asking questions, did you taste your dog food before you buy it?

  29. GROG says:

    Thanks for the link shrinkers.As far as I can tell, these are the questions from the poll: http://surveys.ap.org/data/KnowledgeNetworks/Health%20Reform%20Topline%20for%20Posting.pdfI’ll admit, I had a hard time getting through it and I have no idea how they came to the conclusion that Americans wanted the HCR bill to do more by a 2 to 1 margin.Online interviews…Did doing more mean Tort Reform and having ability to purchase across state lines…..??I’d like to know what Nate would think of this poll.Please fill me in. I’m not proud.

  30. Mr. Universe says:

    I finally figured out who shrinkers reminds me of. He’s Dr. McCoy from Star Trek

  31. GROG says:

    The poll has Obama with a 57% approval and 38% dissapproval rating.Really? Honestly? Seriously?I’m all ears if any of you polling experts can enlighten me on this poll.

  32. filistro says:

    @Bart The Tea Party has higher approval 42% than either party…Nuh-uh. Not so fast, Sparky.From Quinnipiac, two weeks ago: “Support for the Tea Party appears to have flat lined, as only 12 percent of voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, compared to 14 percent in earlier surveys. Voter favorability of the Tea Party is split 30 – 31 percent, also down slightly to the lowest score.Tea Party icon Sarah Palin gets a negative 31 – 50 percent favorability.”

  33. Jeff says:

    @filistro:Don’t get too excited yet over the polls. Bart was accused of being over-excited in the Spring (and Rasmussen was accused of being a stooge for the right). If you look at where we are today, it’s a lot closer to where Bart/Rasmussen said 6 months ago, than to the average opinion on 538. The only thing certain is that both sides will wake up on November 3rd, look at several races, and say “I sure didn’t see THAT coming!”Concerning Rand Paul and Kentucky. Paul may win. He may lose. But you may be interested in this from Jay Cost, who often writes for Real Clear Politics: The most important way to diagnose the quality of a poll is to look at party identification spreads. There is no better predictor of vote choice than party identification. That’s been true for as long as political polling has been done, and it is now a better predictor than ever. The two sides now break for their own candidates on about a 90/10 basis these days, and comparing a poll to recent exit polling can give us a good sense of whether or not it is oversampling a particular side. While we can’t know for sure exactly what the partisan spread will be this year, we can be pretty confident that the electorate will be less Democratic than it was in 2008. Instead, it will be closer to the 2004 electorate. So, that offers an easy way to evaluate the accuracy of a poll. For instance, consider the Kentucky Senate poll by SurveyUSA, which gives the Democrats a fifteen-point edge in party identification, compared to the nine-point edge they actually enjoyed in 2008 or the four-point Democratic edge in 2004. Use those 2004 partisan identification numbers against the SurveyUSA results, and you find Rand Paul with a nine-point lead, rather than the advertised two-point lead. Now, SurveyUSA is a very fine pollster, which I have praised on this page. Importantly, the laws of statistics say very clearly you do enough polls, sooner or later you’re going to produce results that are outliers, as this poll appears to be. Ultimately, it’s up to each of us to be smart consumers of polling.Looking at party ID can give a good sense of how accurate the poll is. Partisan identification on Election Day is fairly stable and predictable. In the last few cycles, good Republican years tend to result in roughly equal party strength, e.g. 2004. Good Democratic years tend to be D+5 or more nationwide. All accounts suggest that this will be a good Republican year, which means polls whose statewide party identification spreads are closer to 2008 than 2004 are probably over-sampling Democrats.

  34. shrinkers says:

    I think the thread had gone bold. Not really sure, though.

  35. shrinkers says:

    I finally figured out who shrinkers reminds me of. He’s Dr. McCoy from Star TrekI’m that crusty? really??Get me a mint julep.

  36. filistro says:

    Jeff … the population of Kentucky (2000 census) is 4,040,176.As of May 2010, registered Democrats in Kentucky outnumbered registered Republicans by 573,139.According to those numbers, the Survey USA sample was a virtually perfect representation of KY voter distribution.

  37. filistro says:

    @shrinkers I think the thread had gone bold. I’m waiting for a thread to go ROGUE.Let’s see how Dr. Shrinkers fixes that! 🙂

  38. Jeff says:

    the population of Kentucky (2000 census) is 4,040,176.@filistro: “As of May 2010, registered Democrats in Kentucky outnumbered registered Republicans by 573,139.According to those numbers, the Survey USA sample was a virtually perfect representation of KY voter distribution.”============Party registration, turnout, and voting patterns are often three very different things, especially in the South. I haven’t checked lately, but I believe much of Dixie still is Democratic by registration. They just don’t vote that way….Anyway, I’m not making predictions, but I thought the Jay Cost analysis was pertinent.We’ll know in five weeks.And although I may get another post in before I leave, I’m outta here until the weekend.

  39. filistro says:

    Hurry back, Jeff… we’ll miss you.(And your side can hardly afford to lose one of their strongest players… they’re already WAY behind in the pennant race 🙂

  40. Monotreme says:

    GROG wrote:Thanks for the link shrinkers.As far as I can tell, these are the questions from the poll:http://surveys.ap.org/data/KnowledgeNetworks/Health%20Reform%20Topline%20for%20Posting.pdfI’ll admit, I had a hard time getting through it and I have no idea how they came to the conclusion that Americans wanted the HCR bill to do more by a 2 to 1 margin.First off, you are reading the Obama favorable/unfavorable numbers wrong. The question you refer to (CUR3) was only asked if the person gave a non-committal answer to the five-point Likert scale in the first question (CUR2). They were forcing a choice in those who took a middle position, and two-thirds of those grudgingly gave him some support while one-third grudgingly said he wasn’t doing a good job. On CUR2, President Obama got 37% approval or strong approval, 22% didn’t care (and had to answer CUR3) and 41% disapproved or strongly disapproved.Regarding health care reform, they asked question HC1 on page 3. If you answered “favor strongly”, “favor somewhat”, or “don’t give a crap”, then they asked question HC1B on page 13. If you answered “don’t give a crap”, “oppose somewhat” or “oppose strongly”, they asked question HC1A on page 13.As you can see, both question HC1A and HC1B have the option to say, “I don’t think the bill went far enough”. You combine those responses. It’s complicated, but I’ll give one example. According to HC1A, of the 40% who oppose the bill, 23% oppose it because it doesn’t do enough (0.4 x 0.23 = 0.09). According to HC1B, of those that favor it or don’t care (60%), 61% said it should do more. That’s (0.6 x 0.61 = 0.37). That is, 46% of people said it should do more, one way or the other.On the other hand, of the 40% who oppose it, 28% think that gubbmint shouldn’t be involved in health care at all (we’ll call these Barts). Barts are (0.40 x 0.28 = 0.12) or 12% of the population, which fits pretty neatly with the number of Teapers according to reliable estimates from a number of sources.Any way you slice it, the people who say it should’ve done more or gone further far outnumber those who favor repeal of the law, which is the real take-home message.From the press release linked above:A new AP poll finds that Americans who think the law should have done more outnumber those who think the government should stay out of health care by 2-to-1.So it didn’t say what you think it said. It said those who wanted the HCR bill to do more outnumbered those who were opposed to government intervention by 2-to-1. That’s not what you thought it said.

  41. Jean says:

    Bart,re: Scott Brown and Chris Christie. Brown only won because of Tea Party money, volunteers and votes which he actively solicited.Scott Brown? Seriously? The same Scott Brown that the teapers and right wingers are now looking forward to working towards a 2012 primary challenge of Scott Brown because he’s not “pure” enough?BTW, you never answered my earlier question: so how goes the Tea Party thingy in the Colorado races? I recall that you were attending meetings and vetting tea party candidates with a tea party “purity” test.

  42. Monotreme says:

    I found an error in my math.There were 60% of the survey respondents asked whether gubbmint should stay out of health care. So “Barts” are 0.6 x 0.28 = 17% of the survey population.

  43. Bart DePalma says:

    BD: “Scott Brown and Chris Christie. Brown only won because of Tea Party money, volunteers and votes which he actively solicited.”Jean: “Scott Brown? Seriously?”Seriously: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/21/us/politics/21reconstruct.htmlThe fact that Brown went wobbly after the election does not change the fact of who elected him.Jean: “BTW, you never answered my earlier question: so how goes the Tea Party thingy in the Colorado races?”Apart from Maes, great. Buck will win the Senate, three House districts will likely flip and hopefully we can take the legislature back.As the new Battleground poll noted, the Tea Party approval is above 50% out here in the Rocky Mountain Free Zone.

  44. shrinkers says:

    The fact that Brown went wobbly after the election does not change the fact of who elected him.But it means an actual Teaper has never been elected anywhere to anything.How much of Brown’s support among non-Teapers would have been there if he had spouted Rand Paul nonsense? Repeal Social Security? reinstall segregated lunch counters? In MA?Brown didn’t even admit during the campaign that he’s a Republican. Not even in his victory speech.Okay, so Teapers plus GOOPers plus a Dem candidate who doesn’t show up plus scads of outofstate money = someone the Teapers hate gets elected. Teapers went gaagaa over someone they weren’t smart enough to realize isn’t a Teaper. What does that say about Teapers?You guys are pathetic. Really.

  45. Jean says:

    Bart,You linked to a January 2010 article that summarized the stealth and energy that won Scott Brown the seat. Pretty outdated information.. You may want to start payng attention to the right wing websites and information readily available to anyone online. There is a significant an d growing faction looking to primary Scott Brown in 2012 because he is not “pure” enough, i.e. he’s had the gall to occasionally vote with Dems for things that are important to citizens of Massachussetts. p.s. Bart – they also plan to primary Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

  46. Monotreme says:

    Bart, I’d sure like to see a cite to this vaunted Battleground Poll and its finding of “Tea Party approval…above 50%“.Until I see it, and read it for myself, I’ll assume you’re just blowing smoke like you usually do.

  47. Monotreme says:

    Oh, Bart, Mr. Tea Party Insider:Who is the Tea Party supporting for Colorado Governor? Hickenlooper, Maes or Tancredo?

  48. Jeff says:

    @monotreme:”Monotreme wrote:”Oh, Bart, Mr. Tea Party Insider: Who is the Tea Party supporting for Colorado Governor? Hickenlooper, Maes or Tancredo?”========I’m not answering for Bart, but I’m guessing Maes is probably the TP choice. I’ve followed Hickenlooper closely (he’s the brother of a friend of mine) and he was and is an extremely effective, popular, non-ideologically driven, mayor. And since Denver is half the state, he was probably going to win no matter what the tides and no matter who his opponent(s) might be. As it is, he’s a lock. I’d vote for him myself if I lived in Colorado.

  49. Monotreme says:

    That’s the thing, Jeff. Maes was the Tea Party choice before he self-destructed.http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_15979509

  50. Bart DePalma says:

    Monotreme wrote: “Oh, Bart, Mr. Tea Party Insider: Who is the Tea Party supporting for Colorado Governor? Hickenlooper, Maes or Tancredo?”The Tea Party was originally split between Maes and McGinnis in the nomination. Our precinct was split down the middle.Maes has since turned out to be a liar and has lost significant support. However, he will probably draw off enough support to give Hick a plurality win.Shame, but you can’t win them all.

  51. Bart DePalma says:

    Mono:My first post about underwater canaries linked to the Battleground poll. To make this easier for you, here is the Tea Party analysis:The tea party movement, which has emerged as the biggest threat to Democrats’ dominance of Washington, is viewed favorably by 43 percent of respondents, compared with 35 percent who view it unfavorably.Perceptions of the grass-roots activists vary widely by region: In the Northeast, nearly half — 47 percent — have a negative view of the movement, suggesting it could prove to be a drag on GOP candidates in a region where the party has bottomed out in recent years.But in the eight-state Mountain West region, more than half — 53 percent — have a favorable view of the tea party movement, which could prove helpful to prominent tea-party-backed Senate nominees in Nevada and Colorado.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42737.html#ixzz10pcec9AEIt is also interesting to note that the tea party movement, which has been portrayed by the national Democrat pundits, as a yoke around the necks of Republicans, is nothing short of wishful thinking. The much-discussed tea party movement actually has a net positive image (43 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable) with likely voters. The tea party movement has a favorable image with a majority of Republicans (73 percent), with a plurality of Independents (44 percent) and with almost one-quarter (23 percent) of conservative Democrats.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42736.htmlWelcome to the revolution.

  52. Monotreme says:

    Barted:It is also interesting to note that the tea party movement, which has been portrayed by the national Democrat [sic] pundits, as a yoke around the necks of Republicans, is nothing short of wishful thinking. The much-discussed tea party movement actually has a net positive image (43 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable) with likely voters. It is also interesting to note that [the characterization of] President Obama, who has been portrayed by the national Republic [sic] pundits, as a yoke around the necks of Democrats, is nothing short of wishful thinking. The much-discussed President actually has a net positive image (54 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable) with likely voters.

  53. filistro says:

    @Bart.. The much-discussed tea party movement actually has a net positive image (43 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable) with likely voters. I’m curious why you keep saying this when it is patently, provably false.In the past few days I’ve shown you recent polls from Quinnipiac and Gallup which show the same thing as this CBS poll.All of them agree… Tea Party support tops out at about 30% with a majority of Americans holding an unfavorable view.Let it go, Bart. You are WRONG on this… and it makes you look silly.

  54. robert verdi says:

    For a blog devoted 538 and the polling and data ideas of Nate Silver its really pretty thin to grasp a few polls and scream momentum. Hell McMahon and Rossi should douse any hopes with cold water. More to the point you have seen localized gains here and there, but certain states are clearly solidifying. Toomey, Rubio, and Blount will win. Illinois is slipping away, Indiana and Arkansas gone, Feingold in serious trouble Reid barely holding on. Lets just say there is a heck of a lot of bad data points out there for the dems.

  55. shiloh says:

    I’m curious why you keep saying this when it is patently, provably false.Lying about politics, racism, etc. is what Bart does er his way of life.His entire existence depends on it! 😉 as he’s obsessed by fear/hatred/misinformation.>He lives in his own teabagger bubble, totally unaffected by reality happening around him.>Hope he’s not totally devastated if the Reps regain congress and they totally FUBAR America even more than cheney/bush did from 2001 to 2009!Again, the best thing both Reps and Dems have going for them is their futile opposition.The ying and yang of politics …

  56. robert verdi says:

    How well has calling people teabaggers worked on the national scene?

  57. shiloh says:

    How well has calling people teabaggers worked on the national scene?~~~~~~~~~~Irrelevant, except in certain cases, Angle, Paul, O’Donnell, teabagger primary wins have taken 100% certain Rep wins and made them competitive races.Again, it’s about jobs and if a Rep controlled congress doesn’t improve the employment situation in (2) years, they will be the endangered species in (swing) districts.Nothing new under the sun, except if the economy does improve, so does Obama’s re-election chances. The Rep’s catch-22, eh. Much like 1996.take care

  58. robert verdi says:

    Wrong, Wrong, Wrong. You all but add fuel to the fire and increase motivation. As for “sure” wins, there was only a bare cupboard after 2008, now we are at the brink of taking Congress. To look at the Tea Movement and detach the massive gains from enthusiasm from the primary choices they have is another mistake. As for jobs, its only part of the story. As opposition to Dem policies is the clear motivation for the Tea party and always has been. By the way if Obama is President and there still aren’t jobs, its Dems not Repubs who will suffer. Seriously, what happened to Dems’s in swing districts in 2008, were they punished while Bush was President, or did they coast to easy victories as the electorate coalesced around Bush to blame.

  59. Monotreme says:

    @Robert Verdi:Do you have a point, or do you just pop in here every hour or so to tell people they’re wrong?”Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person makes.” — Eric Idle

  60. shiloh says:

    Robert Verdi would be Bart’s illegitimate son, if Bartles :::shudder::: was to ever have children.Indeed, RV is much like MPM w/out the statistical background ;)To RV’s credit lol he doesn’t use all caps to shout above the crowd …

  61. filistro says:

    I like Robert. He’s kind of “Teaper Cliff Notes,” or “GOP For Dummies.” After I read a few of Robert’s posts I’m up to date on all the rightie talking points.. without having to spend my valuable time reading one of those long, tedious posts that takes half an hour to expound the same talking point.Hey… it just occurred to me: “TP” stands for both “Tea Party” and “Talking Point!”Coincidence? I think not…🙂

  62. robert verdi says:

    Shiloh,Odd points to make considering you simply called my point irrelevant and then went off on a tangent. I ask again, how has calling people tea baggers played out on the national scene?Monotreme,I believe the gist of this post about “something happening” is incorrect and that looking at a couple modestly positive data points when the bulk of info is negative is wrong.(And something the original 538blog wasn’t known for.)

  63. Monotreme says:

    Filistro said:So what do you think? Is this poll a massive outlier, or a straw in the wind? I think it’s the first indicator of a massive national shift. The momentum is turning, thanks to a long, slow build-up of Tea party negatives that has suddenly reached critical mass. And I’m fairly certain this poll is not an outlier… it’s a harbinger of things to come.Robert Verdi said:I believe the gist of this post about “something happening” is incorrect and that looking at a couple modestly positive data points when the bulk of info is negative is wrong.(And something the original 538blog wasn’t known for.)Thereby automatically gainsaying any statement Filistro made. That’s not an argument. That’s contradiction.Thanks for playing. Here’s a copy of our home game.

  64. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiIt’s called sarcasm ~ as usually, the only appropriate answer to lame hyperbole is lampooning satire or no reply at all …take care, blessings

  65. robert verdi says:

    shiloh,by “sarcasm” you mean using a petty small minded attack, my point is that using the teabagger phrase is a mistake, whether used in earnest or sarcastically. (In other words stop using it if you value the passage of policies you advocate.)Mono, I Don’t believe this a sign of a “Massive National Shift”, does that make you feel better? What do you think, is it?

  66. Jean says:

    Bart,re: I have to sadly concede that Barack Obama would likely win the 2010 presidential election if the GOP candidate were Sarah Palin.Run, Sarah, run! So Bart, who do you think will be the Republican nominee to run against President Obama in 2012?

  67. filistro says:

    @Robert Mono, I Don’t believe this a sign of a “Massive National Shift”, does that make you feel better? Not to put words in Treme’s mouth (he’s quite able to come up with his own words 🙂 But I think what he’s syaing is… if somebody asserts “I think this is true”… it is not an “argument” to simply yell, “No it isn’t!”It is an argument to say, “I disagree because…” and then back up one’s disagreement up with some kind of facts that refute the original statement.Otherwise we descend to a level of, “Is so!” “Is not!” “Is so, is so, is SO!!!”… and then we whack each other with our Barbie dolls. (Or in your case, your GI Joe.)

  68. Monotreme says:

    Filistro is correct.For example:BAD: I think the root article here is wrong.BETTER: The root article here is wrong. I think this because…BEST: The root article here is wrong. I think this because… and here is a piece of data which supports my alternative hypothesis…

  69. Jean says:

    Robert Verdi,re: I ask again, how has calling people tea baggers played out on the national scene?What is YOUR opinion how it’s played out on the national scene? And whether positive, negative or neutral, why do you think so?Your comments so far seem to indicate that you are nothing more than a concern troll. Feel free to prove me wrong.Robert Verdi,re: I ask again, how has calling people tea baggers played out on the national scene?What is YOUR opinion how it’s played out on the national scene? And whether positive, negative or neutral, why do you think so?Your comments so far seem to indicate that you are nothing more than a concern troll. Prove me wrong.

  70. filistro says:

    On the other hand, I haven’t seen a GI Joe lately… (the small people in my life are mostly Barbie fans)… but I’m pretty sure GI Joe doesn’t have hard pointy little boobs (though who knows WHAT those godless liberals and their evil homosexual agenda are doing to our sacred childhood icons?)… so if Robert wants a fight at the playground level, I am armed with the more potent weapon.So, in the immortal words of a truly immortal president… “Bring it on!”

  71. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment had to do w/my 3:37 reply. Re: “teabaggers” it was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!and my 2:10 reply still applies ie teabagger er TP’er er whatever is irrelevant er labels are not important in that if the only way Reps can excited by a mid-term election where they are in the minority is to create a faux astro-turf fringe group which is totally funded/sponsored by Rep billionaires and Rep media then it reflects badly on the Rep party as a whole ie faux enthusiasm.Something the Dems would never have to do if the situation was reversed ie 2006/2008.Maybe because this protest concept lol has never been a foreign idea to liberals as we have been doing it all our lives, whereas conservatives hardly ever er never protest, much too degrading, eh. ;)Again, labels are not important. But paid media is and w/all of the well-funded special interest conservative political groups created in 2009/2010 the Reps have a distinct money advantage this election cycleAgain money, money, money always trumps political ideology ie the average American voter has the attention span of a peanut …>It should be noted during the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American, was called unAmerican, Communist, Marxist, Socialist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Devil Incarnate, The Anti-Christ, a Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans, yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yethe received (69.5 million) votes ~ 7.5 more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2008 …Why? Because (8) years of incompetence/corruption by cheney/bush trumped everything!Nothing new under the sun ~ Politics 101.take care

  72. filistro says:

    Oh, and Robert… this is the basis for my belief that we’re seeing a “fairly massive shift.” I don’t know what else you’d call a shift on the composite generic ballot from 10 points to 3 points in the space of a month.Especially when it appears to be not so much a gradual convergence as a sudden SURGE.

  73. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  74. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  75. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  76. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest, secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  77. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest, secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  78. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest, secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  79. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest, secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc. is a manufactured entity.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as money and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  80. shiloh says:

    @robert verdiMy sarcasm comment only had to do w/my 3:37 reply.My 2:10 teabagger response still applies as labels are not important. btw, teabagger was a phrase first coined by fixednoise and rightwing media.Oops!Again, teabagger, TP’er er whatever label is not important as this faux astro-turf fringe group funded/sponsored totally by conservative billionaires, the same folk giving Reps a huge money advantage for the 2010 cycle w/their special interest, secret, non disclosure money changers political groups ie turdblossom’s (2) fund raiser groups, The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc. was a manufactured entity.Also it should be noted liberals did not need a faux teabagger equivalent in 2006/2008 as progressives have a long history of political protest and organizations, whereas conservatives never had protested lol too undignified for the hoity-toity Reps.>Bottom line:During the 2008 presidential campaign Barack Hussein Obama, a bi-racial African/American was called unAmerican, Communist, Socialist, Marxist, Islamo-Fascist, wealth distributor, Satan, The Anti-Christ, The Devil Incarnate, Muslim born in Kenya, who wakes up every morning hating America and Americans yada yada yada by fixednoise and rightwing media …and yetand yetand yetObama received (69.5 million) votes in 2008, (7.5) million more than the previous record of cheney/bush in 2004.Why? ~ Because of incompetence/corruption of said cheney/bush from 2001 to 2009. Politics 101 as did I mention labels are not important …Political ideology is irrelevant as (((money))) and performance and incumbency, as a rule, rules American politics.take care

  81. Monotreme says:

    Barted:But in the eight-state Mountain West region, more than half — 53 percent — have a favorable view of the tea party movement, which could prove helpful to prominent tea-party-backed Senate nominees And Pauley Perrette has a Q score of 50, but that doesn’t mean she can get elected to the Senate.

  82. robert verdi says:

    I agree that incumbency plays an inordinate amount influence and personally have been skeptical of the great GOP wave considering the inherent strengths of elected officials. But the results from 2009, the extra primary participation by GOP voters, and the polling data point towards significant perhaps major gains. Enjoy Wednesday workday.

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