Nate’s model continues to tighten and even show improvement for Republicans. He is forecasting a 48 seat gain in the House and even a small improvement in the Senate. However, he has a very wide margin of error for which he has caught some criticism. This begs the question: just what will things be like in a House so divided? Will it really be deadlocked for the next two years? Will Shepard Fairey have to print up lithographs that say ‘Same’ rather than ‘Change’? Instead of ‘Hope’ he could use ‘Apathetic’. I’ll always remember this election as the one where change went to die.
I’m normally a big cheerleader for 538 but this is one instance where I hope Nate has been too cautious..
In other more local news, I owe Rachel Maddow a debt of gratitude for eviscerating the nut job who is trying to unseat my representative, Pete DeFazio. It’s unlikely that anyone could unseat the well-loved DeFazio but I also had that feeling about Governor Kitzhaber. Nate is forecasting a slight probability that Kitzhaber will lose to Chris Dudley, a mediocre former basketball player. Dudley has raised twice as much campaign money as Kitzhaber primarily; and not surprisingly, through timber barons and Nike founder Phil Knight
The best thing about the interview on Thursday with Art Robinson was exposing how kooky climate deniers are and show how ridiculous this Citizens United nonsense really is. The interview is painful to watch but it pretty much showed what a fruit loop Robinson is.