The election picture is starting to firm up, like Jell-O™ made using the special quick-set instructions.
In CO-SEN, Scotty Rasmussen moves from “driving the narrative” mode into “telling the truth” mode , and magically, the race is getting tighter. It would be laughable if it weren’t so bloody transparent.
It’s possible that Majority Leader Harry Reid is losing his NV-SEN seat to the woman who confronted candidate John McCain with the “Obama is a Arab” allegation . This one looks like a true toss-up, perhaps 60-40 advantage Angle in my estimation. Edit: Angle claims Central Casting Hispanic males in her recent “scary Mexicans” ad are not Hispanic males . I’m not enamored of Sen. Reid as a Majority Leader, and I’m doubly not enamored of him being Majority Leader in an environment with McConnell vs DeMint fighting for the soul of the Republican Party and with perhaps a 52-48 Democratic majority in the Senate.
It appears to me that the Senate will be either 53-47, 52-48 or 51-49. There aren’t many other likely possibilities.
On the House side, everyone except Bart DePalma is settling in on a result close to 230R-205D. That’s a gain of 50 R seats in the House, which is very significant move, even in a midterm election with a bad economy. Bart is still predicting a TSUNAMI OF EPIC PROPORTIONS and a 250R-185D or even weaker D result.
My take on this is that it’s possible, in the same way it’s possible that I might get involved in a car accident between now and Nov 2. Nate has frequently pointed out the volatility in his forecasts, particularly the House forecast. I would only remind the Tsunami Tsoris-Mongers that there’s an equally good chance the result will be 225D-210R. Neither Filistro nor I would like that, however. If it’s going to be a Republican wave, my choice would be for a narrow R majority in the House (where I’m convinced Boener et al. will waste no time hanging themselves Gingrich-style) and a narrow D majority in the Senate. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg‘s health is failing rapidly. The confirmation of her replacement is the most likely significant business the new Senate will transact.
Consider this the new incarnation of our ongoing “let’s discuss the upcoming 2010 midterm election” thread.