Nate recently addressed the topic of polling and cell phone proliferation last week. I’ve been poking around to see if I could find anything substantive to add to the discussion. So far I haven’t found much. Nate correctly points out that fully 25% of the adult population no longer has a landline. He posits that this translates into a disadvantage to Democrats in polling.
My take on this has to do with the young adult vote. If people in the 18-25 demographic turn out in great numbers then I think the bias will turn against Republicans. I think the use of landlines is even less in this group. My guess is well over half of this cohort are cell phone only. And my other guess is this age group probably thinks the Republicans are as bat-shit crazy as I do.
I haven’t found any examples of people looking into this very seriously but one thing for certain: this ain’t your father’s polling. If my suspicions are correct, then the only people being consistently polled are landline users age 40 and higher. It seems reasonable to conclude that this demo might skew conservatively.
I have yet to see any satisfactory explanation that addresses this topic aside from Nate’s. I would welcome any input or references from anyone out there that adequately covers the steadily increased use of cell phones and their effect on political polling or any credible pollster that is taking real steps towards including cell phone usage in their numbers.