Preseason Tuesday Election Commentary, October 19

Two weeks left! Any thoughts on how things are going to shake out?

Sestak making a comeback?

Fiorina closing on Boxer?

Joe Miller admits ethics breach.

Tom Bosley (Happy Days) dies.

What are you wearing for Halloween? Salut!

About Mr. Universe

Mr. Universe is a musician/songwriter and an ex-patriot of the south. He currently lives and teaches at a University in the Pacific Northwest. He is a long distance hiker who has hiked the Appalachian Trail and the Pacific Crest Trail. He is also an author and woodworker. An outspoken political voice, he takes a decidedly liberal stance in politics.
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53 Responses to Preseason Tuesday Election Commentary, October 19

  1. Mr. Universe says:

    FIRST!(Does it count to do that if you wrote the post?)

  2. shiloh says:

    June Cleaver also passed on Saturday at (94).Indeed, what boy wouldn’t want the nickname Beaver

  3. mclever says:

    I can say from experience that “beaver” is not a fun nickname when you’re in school. 😦

  4. mclever says:

    I’m curious how the California races are shaping up, and whether the senate and gov races are showing any parallel movement.Of course, I’m also quite interested in Prop 19 and how that is messing with turnout projections in the golden state.

  5. dr_funguy says:

    Are there _any_ TeaPer candidate who are actually, you know, not crazy?How about capable of identifying where there gonna cut all that fat outta the budget?Here’s the link for TeaPer Joe’s story.http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/joe-miller-admits-he-was-disciplined-for-violating-borough-ethics-policy-video.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpmelectioncentral+(TPM+Election+Central)Sorry I don’t know how to tag it as html

  6. dr_funguy says:

    NRSC Rand Paul ad pulled for telling lies. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/kentucky-station-pulls-nrsc-spot-for-inaccuracy.php?ref=dcbltI’m shocked, shoked to find inaccuracies in a campaign ad. It actually is shocking… that the TV station would pull it.

  7. shiloh says:

    Ben Quayle Trailing Democrat Jon Hurlburd In New PollIn a shocking twist in Arizona’s Third Congressional District, a new poll released Monday shows that Republican candidate Ben Quayle has relinquished a considerable lead to Democrat Jon Hurlburd, whom he now trails by two points.According to the Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by liberal blog Daily Kos, Hulburd leads Quayle, the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle, 46 to 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters still undecided in the heavily conservative district.A few particularly surprising statistics emerge from the poll results, especially considering the seat’s Republican control by John Shadegg for the last 16 years, and now-Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl for the eight years before that.Out of those surveyed, 19 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of Independents said they planned to vote for Hurlburd over Quayle. On the other side, only seven percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Independents signaled their intent to vote for Quayle.Quayle was notoriously subject to numerous reports about his alleged involvement in scandalous rumor website TheDirty.com, as well as other potential points of contention, in the run-up to his primary battle. John Hurlburd, on the other hand, has had to deal with relatively little press, which could account for a massive gap in approval ratings.According to the poll, Quayle’s rating is running at 34 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable and 14 percent unsure, while Hurlburd has a 33 percent favorable rating, 20 percent unfavorable, and 47 percent unsure.The poll was conducted among 655 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.~~~~~>2006 was extremely happy! 🙂 when “macaca” Allen lost to Webb … 2010 it will be if Conway beats Paul, ’cause who doesn’t enjoy when Reps totally screw the pooch and grasp defeat from the jaws of victory!>Some of the greatest sports headlines of all-time have involved Southern Cal and Oregon State. 😉Trojans fail to penetrate Beavers defense.Beavers Poke Surreptitious Hole In Trojans, Snatch Victory.Beavers Squeeze Trojans, Booty Gives It Away.yada yada yadaPlease tip the waitresses …

  8. Realist says:

    @dr_funguy,I think what we’re seeing in some of the TP candidate behavior is naivete. We are used to seeing candidates for national public office who have had a chance to cut their teeth in earlier campaigns for offices such as school board or city council.By the time we see candidates for national office, they have generally been through enough campaigns that they have learned how to handle themselves with the press, and to carefully craft their messages.With the TP candidates, they’ve bypassed all of that training, and gone straight to the big leagues. It should come as no surprise that they are unable to handle the situation. I have little doubt that much the same would happen to me, were I to try to run for national office today.

  9. filistro says:

    @Realist:… With the TP candidates, they’ve bypassed all of that training, and gone straight to the big leagues. It should come as no surprise that they are unable to handle the situation. Absolutely. They remind me of the early days of Saturday Night Live, when Lorne Michaels dubbed his cast “The Not Ready For Primetime Players.”

  10. mclever says:

    I think Realist makes an insightful observation regarding the preparedness of many of the “Tea Party” candidates for the pressures of a campaign (and of public office). Similarly, I recognize that I would probably handle the relentless media pressure poorly, and I’m sure some of my ill-considered utterings and clumsy gaffes would seem crazy were I a candidate. You all can be thankful I’ve thus far declined any such pressure to run for office.:-)Recognizing how the media illuminates the flaws of the ill-prepared, I would be deeply concerned about people like this (like me?) trying to deal with the public political pressures on Capitol Hill. There, such ill-considered words and other faux pas can ruin delicate negotiations on the complicated measures that Congress must deal with regularly.I have a lot more respect for someone as well-spoken as our Jeff, who–while I disagree with him frequently–is able to cogently and patiently express his opinions in a sane-seeming manner. Were Jeff and I both on City Council, I have no doubt that we could work together despite our differences of opinion. I question the same of these “not ready for primetime players” who are currently littering my airwaves.

  11. shiloh says:

    Obama Job ApprovalGallup ~ 10/16 – 10/18 ~ 48/44 … +4Rasmussen ~ 10/16 – 10/18 ~ 49/50 … -1As always, elections come down to choices as one candidate campaigns against another and as a rule, incumbency, name recognition, $$$, and in 2010 teabaggers bat shit craziness! are major parts of the equation.We don’t care ’bout no stinkin’ ideology 😉 as Scott Brown made a great Cosmo centerfold winning “America’s Sexiest Man” contest! ~ June ’82carry on

  12. filistro says:

    So, speaking of the NRFPT Players… some time ago I floated a theory to the effect that:This election started out as a referendum on Obama and the Dems, which was the best possible scenario for the R’s who are also disliked enough not to fare so well in a “choice” election. So the R’s wanted badly to keep it a referendum. (Pay no attention to us! Don’t even think about us! Just keep thinking how much you hate those other guys!) But somewhere along the way it has morphed into a “choice” election after all… and the choice is between the Dems and the Tea Party.This makes the craziness of Angle, O’Donnell, Miller, Buck etc. so valuable to the Dems even in distant states. It reinforces the question in voter’s minds… do I really want those guys to be running the country?I think in retrospect this choice will eventually be recognized as having steeply suppressed the GOP “wave.”

  13. Realist says:

    @filistro,Perhaps you’re right, although I’m pretty sure that Bart would claim that it has only increased the size of the wave.

  14. filistro says:

    Bart would claim that it has only increased the size of the waveOh, I’m sure he’ll say that now. I’m curious what he might be saying in a few weeks.Okay, he’ll probably still be saying it then, too… ;-)But on some level even Bart must be capable of honest objectivity when he’s all alone with his thoughts.

  15. The Real Mike Is Back says:

    Someone had asked about California and parallel movement at the top of the ticket for Governor and Senator. There is a correlation between the two races. Boxer and Brown have opened up 5 point leads since both started running ads non-stop after Labor Day. But in the Governor’s race, there are roughly 7% undecided. In the Senate race, there are roughly 10% undecided. This gap is not surprising, as Senator Boxer is the only incumbent out of the four.

  16. dr_funguy says:

    GO BEAVERS!

  17. Mr. Universe says:

    Clever; beaver. Oh you poor dear. What a misfortunate circumstance that beaver has such a negative slang definition.

  18. filistro says:

    What a misfortunate circumstance that beaver has such a negative slang definitionPlease, people… a little respect here!The beaver is Canada’s national symbol: We Are The Beaver

  19. filistro says:

    so if I put the dropped tag in here… … does it fix?

  20. dr_funguy says:

    As a Proud Oregon State Alumnus, I have nothing but respect for beavers. And what is negative about the slang connotation? One of my favorite things ;-)Got to learn how to make those professional looking smiley’s some day.

  21. mclever says:

    Thanks, Mr. U. The worst part was that “cleaver” is a mispronunciation of my name which every teacher seemed to make, which thus perpetuated the “beaver” nickname amongst my snickering peers. Trying to correct it just made it worse, so I learned to laugh a lot.Speaking of nicknames, are you a fan of Firefly?”You can’t stop the signal!”

  22. mclever says:

    @The Real Mike is Back:Boxer and Brown have opened up 5 point leads since both started running ads non-stop after Labor Day. But in the Governor’s race, there are roughly 7% undecided. In the Senate race, there are roughly 10% undecided. Thanks for that succinct comparison. I hadn’t realized that both races were behaving so similarly. You’d think that Boxer would have a slight advantage due to her incumbency, but there are actually fewer undecided in the gubernatorial race, which is a little surprising. Of course, the numbers are close enough to be within margins of error and confidence intervals.

  23. shrinkers says:

    In the latest debate, O’Donnell revealed she was unaware that the idea of a separate of church and state is in the Constitution. She was shocked to learn it is part of the First Amendment.This is the modern Republican Party.

  24. shrinkers says:

    Speaking of nicknames, are you a fan of Firefly?Firefly is the best ever.Shiny.

  25. shiloh says:

    Brown’s new campaign ad may be the best this election cycle. Tweety showed it on his show today.It’s one of those game over ads and thanx for playin’ Meg …Both Whitman and Carly are train wrecks to be sure, but Meg has gone the extra mile in bat shit crazy! ;)>Rachel’s opening segment tonight depicted how Allen’s “macaca” moment was a game changer in 2006, but in 2010 the many likewise teabagger/Rep racist moments have barely registered on the radar screen as Reps have totally given up on the minority vote and are concentrating on heavy white voter turnout in a low turnout mid-term. Nixon’s ’60s southern strategy of winning all the white vote by railing against minorities as majority white vote will win you national elections by default. Divide and conquer racist strategy. Indeed this election cycle many Reps leaders are embracing racism/division and think it’s quite funny.As I mentioned recently Obama’s election has given all the yahoos carte blanche to come out of the closet and not be bashful re: their prejudices …ieteabaggers>Many pundits have pointed out this short term strategy as Latinos will soon be the majority ethnic group by 2040.Reps worse case scenario lol an African/American Muslim born in Kenya president and surrounded by Hispanics everywhere they look! :)be afraid, be very afraid!and so it goes …

  26. mclever says:

    @shrinkersWas that the same debate where she said she would “restore” the eighth and tenth amendments? Or was it the one where she had no clue about the contents of the 16th amendment?How can people expect someone to govern in accordance to a Constitution when they apparently don’t even know what it says?

  27. shiloh says:

    Bachmann is the fool who wants to: “Reduce the federal government to its original size and constitutional limitations and to restore the 9th and 10th amendments”apologies to fools …

  28. mclever says:

    @shrinkers re: Firefly”Love. Can know all the math in the ‘verse but take a boat in the air that you don’t love? She’ll shake you off just as sure as a turn in the worlds. Love keeps her in the air when she ought ta fall down…tell you she’s hurting ‘fore she keens…makes her a home.”:-)Shiny!

  29. mclever says:

    Ah, thanks, shiloh. I coulda sworn I saw a clip of O’Donnell saying virtually the same thing.

  30. Morty says:

    PLEASE HELP ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I am going blind trying to read this site and the knocked out type. Please I am begging you please revert to black on a white background before I need an ophalmologist.

  31. shiloh says:

    Rachel’s opening segment: GOP’s ‘southern strategy’ rises againIndeed, the more things change, the more they stay the same. ~ Hey, Reps are conservative and don’t like change. 😉

  32. Jeff says:

    filistro wrote:What a misfortunate circumstance that beaver has such a negative slang definition.Please, people… a little respect here!The beaver is Canada’s national symbol==================Most guys have nothing but admiration for beavers. In fact, we frequently go out looking for them. We buy magazines devoted to beavers. One could say that we truly love beavers. Red ones and brown ones and black ones and blonde ones….. And we have special respect for those beavers who have lost all their hair (what trauma). Guys love beavers so much that we just want to hug and kiss them.(you started it…. 🙂

  33. shiloh says:

    (you started it…Actually, I started it and so there is no confusion, a young boy being called Beaver is also not preferable! ;)>Bond: Who are you?Pussy: My name is Pussy Galore.Bond: (pauses) I must be dreaming.

  34. Jeff says:

    mclever wrote:I think Realist makes an insightful observation regarding the preparedness of many of the “Tea Party” candidates for the pressures of a campaign (and of public office). Similarly, I recognize that I would probably handle the relentless media pressure poorly, and I’m sure some of my ill-considered utterings and clumsy gaffes would seem crazy were I a candidate. You all can be thankful I’ve thus far declined any such pressure to run for office.Recognizing how the media illuminates the flaws of the ill-prepared, I would be deeply concerned about people like this (like me?) trying to deal with the public political pressures on Capitol Hill. There, such ill-considered words and other faux pas can ruin delicate negotiations on the complicated measures that Congress must deal with regularly.I have a lot more respect for someone as well-spoken as our Jeff, who–while I disagree with him frequently–is able to cogently and patiently express his opinions in a sane-seeming manner. Were Jeff and I both on City Council, I have no doubt that we could work together despite our differences of opinion. I question the same of these “not ready for primetime players” who are currently littering my airwaves.============Thanks for the nice compliment. I was elected a few years ago to our local City Council, and the then-mayor and I worked together very well (she’s an arch Democrat). My favorite line about that is “there’s no Republican way to fix potholes” The funny thing is that in town I’m known as a “tax and spender” because I extol the virtues of local taxes to enhance the community.

  35. robert verdi says:

    Murray wins in Washington,(I have been watching Rossi try and climb that mountain for years and always fall short) Toomey wins in Pennsylvania, I believe that PPP poll is an outlier at best. Rubio breaks 50% in three person race. Angle and Reid tie so they can keep their election going a month or two longer. Paladino does better then expected because he looks like less of a freak because of the freak show debate our despicable media groups put on in New York. Barney Frank squeaks by, Alan Grayson loses by 15, the GOP picks up the house.Miller wins because the thought of an actual write in candidate winning a plurality seems so crazy.Boxer squeaks by. (Unfortunately)Pelosi’s opponent John Dennis gets between 35-40 percent of the vote.Ohio returns to the Red Fold.Divided government returns and the first great political battle will be whether the state bailouts will continue.(they won’t)2012 anyone?

  36. Bart DePalma says:

    Ah the fun of jetlag coming back from Iraly, up at 5 am unable to sleep.The latest WSJ/NBC poll offers the classic Dem media polling shift to the GOP on the eve of the election with very Ras-like LV congressional generics. The really interesting part is the crosstab finding a massive GOP+14 in the 92 (!) most competitive districts:”Among likely voters, Republicans hold a 50% to 43% edge, up from a three-percentage-point lead a month ago.In the broader category of registered voters, 46% favor a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 44% who want Republican control. But in the 92 House districts considered most competitive, the GOP’s lead among registered voters is 14 points, underscoring the Democrats’ challenge in maintaining their hold on the House.”http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303550904575562493014465942.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEADNewsCollectionNotice how the number of competitive districts keep expansing exponentially? We are witnessing history.

  37. Bart DePalma says:

    BTW, that GOP +14 number in the 92 most competitive districts is among RVs, not LVs. What the heck is the LV number?We are witnessing history.

  38. filistro says:

    @Bart…We are witnessing history.Sweetie, we’re ALWAYS “witnessing history”. I think what you mean is we’re witnessing aberration. You could be right. But even if you are… aberrations are usually followed quite rapidly by reversion to the mean.Welcome back 🙂

  39. shrinkers says:

    @Bart<i.The latest WSJ/NBC poll offers the classic Dem media polling shift to the GOP on the eve of the election with very Ras-like LV congressional generics. Can you remind me — in which districts are generic candidates running? I thought that actual candidates are running in most districts.The really interesting part is the crosstab finding a massive GOP+14 in the 92 (!) most competitive districts:So this is the average across those 92 districts, right? which means it’s higher in some and lower in others, right?In 2006, there were about 60 competitive districts with Republican incumbents. The Republicans had a slimmer majority then than the Dems do today. Those districts split almost exactly fifty-fifty, with 30 going to each party. Now, with a larger Congressional majority, there are perhaps as many as 90 competitive districts, as you point out. If they also go halfies, that would be 45 to each. A big win for the R’s, yes, but a bit short of the biblical tsunami.It doesn’t much matter, though. Anything more than about a 20-seat pickup will give the republicans (with the help of any remaining blue dogs) the ability to bollix up the House. Which will mean the absolute failure of next two years will be squarely on Republican shoulders. And the electorate will most likely whipsaw back to the Democrats in time for the 2012 election — particularly with Caribou Barbie heading the Republican ticket.

  40. Bart DePalma says:

    Fili: History features such “aberrations.” Often they are called realignments.shrinkers: It is indeed likely that the strongest 30 Dem incumbents among the 90 some polled districts are tied or trailing by less than the 30 weakest incumbents, but an average of GOP +14 among RVs (not LVs) across those 90 districts indicates that nearly all of them are in trouble. See how GOP incumbents in 2006 below 50% support lost.http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/250399/embattled-incumbents-those-final-poll-numbers-are-often-painfully-accurateA 70 to 90 seat shift to the GOP is hardly the equivalent of a 20 seat shift. This means a fifth of the House will be rookies put in by Tea Party platform voters and the GOP will have the cushion to ignore the RINOs.Equally important, a once in a century victory will scare the hell out of the surviving Dems just like the 1932 level victory changed the GOP into FDR lite.Like I said, we may be witnessing history.

  41. mostlyilurk says:

    Bart,Actually, you previously said we “are” witnessing history, not that we “may be” witnessing history. Why the equivocation?

  42. Bart DePalma says:

    mostlylurk:I reverted to lawyertalk. We are witnessing history, no doubt about it. How historical remains to be seen, but so far so great.

  43. mostlyilurk says:

    Funny, Bart – it probably jumped out at me because I’m a lawyer.

  44. shiloh says:

    Bartles is not a very good lawyer since he spends all his time here.Just sayin’

  45. Bart DePalma says:

    Gallup just came in with their third LV congressional generic.http://www.gallup.com/poll/127439/Election-2010-Key-Indicators.aspxSame once in a century tsunami numbers, no more bouncing around like with their RV polling.If Gallup is correct, its projecting a 80-100 seat GOP gain.

  46. Bart DePalma says:

    Here is the Abromowitz predictive model based upon the Gallup LV numbers. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/converting_gallups_generic_bal.php?nr=1The chart maxes out with the GOP earning 240 seats from a 10% lead. The current Gallup GOP leads are 11% (high turnout) to 17% (low turnout) with somewhere in between being most likely.

  47. shiloh says:

    Bartles, it appears one is trying really, really, really, really, really, hard to convince oneself …take care, blessings

  48. Monotreme says:

    Barted:The chart maxes out with the GOP earning 240 seats from a 10% lead. The current Gallup GOP leads are 11% (high turnout) to 17% (low turnout) with somewhere in between being most likely.Dude, what are you smoking? Seriously? Don’t try to drive today, because you’re showing a significant degree of impairment.The Democrats currently hold 255 seats in the 111th Congress. You’re seriously suggesting that number will be reduced to 15 or fewer?I am going to bookmark this “prediction” and use it to ridicule you repeatedly in the future. You’ve already demonstrated you have no idea how a poll works. Now you’re demonstrating a perverse lack of knowledge or insight into political science.Or do you seriously want the United States to recreate North Korea’s political system?

  49. Monotreme says:

    Chris Coons: Smackdown!Christine O’Donnell cannot name a single Democratic Senator.

  50. shrinkers says:

    Bart, filistro already pointed out to you that we are *always* “witnessing history.”The election of the first Black president was pretty historic. There is no doubt his entire term will be as well.Every election is “history.” Name one that wasn’t.Anyway, since you’re now predicting an 80 – 100 seat gain for the GOP, are you ready to take that bet you proposed months ago? Or are you still wimping out?I’ll make it easy on you. I’ll predict the Republicans will gain less than 90 seats in the House. Are you willing to take the over?

  51. shrinkers says:

    Lots of tight races:New Polls Confirm Sestak’s Rebound, Leads For Boxer And Brownhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/21/polls-joe-sestak-rebound-boxer-brown-lead_n_771128.htmlPolls: Miller Barely Ahead Of Murkowski In AK-SENhttp://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/rasmussen-poll-murkowski-closes-gap-against-miller-in-ak-sen.phpElection 2010: Illinois SenateIllinois Senate: Kirk (R), Giannoulias (D) Still Running Closehttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_senateElection 2010: Nevada SenateNevada Senate: Angle (R), Reid (D) Still Fight A Close Onehttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/nevada/election_2010_nevada_senate(For the Rasmussen numbers, of course, you can probably shift about 3 points back toward the Democrat, to account for the Ras house effect.)

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