That Old Black Magic

by Filistro

Last night was perfect for a spot of magic. The moon was on the wane, Hallowe’en is near so the spirits were abroad, and it wasn’t too cold. (Besides, I have a new bottle of Bailey’s). So near midnight I took my crystal ball, my black wax candle and Steve (my pet owl) and slipped over to the graveyard. I put Steve on a tombstone, lit the candle, took a swig of liqueur and rubbed the crystal ball until it began to glow. Then I passed my hands over it three times, peered into its iridescent depths and… SHAZAM!!… a picture emerged.


It was Wednesday morning, November 3. All the major races were decided except for two that were going to recounts (PA and AK)… both nail-biter Dem wins being challenged by Republicans. The Dems had retained the house narrowly and already held 52 Senate seats.


Oh, CRAP,” I muttered to Steve, who blinked owlishly. “That’s my worst-case scenario!”


But it is what is is. The ball never lies. (Okay, sometimes it exaggerates a little.) So I returned to its depths and saw the pundits coming forward one by one to pick through the tattered shreds of their reputations. They lined up, each prepared to offer an explanation for why they’d all gotten everything so dreadfully wrong.


Charlie Cook cleared his throat and began. “What I failed to consider was…”


At that moment a siren howled, shattering the eerie silence, and a police car swept into view. Hastily I gathered up my bird, my ball and my booze, and skedaddled. (They get so testy when they catch me scrying in the cemetery.)


So, what did I miss due to my abrupt departure? If, bizarre as it seems right now, my crystal ball turns out to have been depressingly accurate, how will the pundits explain their failure? I wonder, if they’ve all gotten this election wrong, what their excuses will be. Cell phones? Tea Party animus? Polling fatigue? Unforeseen last minute Dem surge? A wimpy public’s distaste for guys who stomp on little girls’ heads?


Help me out here, folks. I’d go back to the graveyard but it’s going to be too chilly tonight. Even witches like to put on their snugglies and curl up by the fire on frosty nights.

 


About filistro

Filistro is a Canadian writer and prairie dog who maintains burrows on both sides of the 49th parallel. Like all prairie dogs, she is keenly interested in politics and language. (Prairie dogs have been known to build organized towns the size of Maryland, and are the only furry mammal with a documented language.)
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213 Responses to That Old Black Magic

  1. Monotreme says:

    First!!!(Sometimes, I miss the old days.)fili, Charlie Cook didn’t forget anything. He and Nate and Larry Sabato have issued some remarkably consistent forecasts through the election cycle:Senate -7D, House -50Dwith a huge dose of uncertainty.The problem has been the proliferation of crappolling used to drive a narrative and send the Gullibarts into a enthusigastic frenzy. They don’t understand polling, they don’t understand math or statistics, all they understand is that they want something really, really bad and they honestly believe that will make it so.The fundamentals of this race are strong. As pointed out in the Chait article from NR I posted on another thread, the Democrats were going to lose 45 House seats plus or minus a few in any case. In my opinion, a few of the polls were good. Any polls that tried to impose a “likely voter” model went bad wrong. I think Charlie Cook will say, “What I failed to consider is that no one would listen when I called these polls dime store junk.”Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong. Either way, they’re junk because they have no predictive capacity. Like Del Ali, they reflect the opinion of the pollster, not a scientific attempt to model the electorate. And a huge percentage of commentators don’t know the difference.

  2. shiloh says:

    Fili’s pet owl, Steve, notwithstanding.One may remember, not too long ago as we go wayyy back to FL exit polls 2000.Gore wins FLdelay my last …Bush wins FLdelay my last …(((“We”))) haven’t gotta frickin’ clue who won FL.Supreme Court can you help us outta this terrible jam!solo estoy diciendo>Well, come on all of you, big strong men,Uncle Sam needs your help again.He’s got himself in a terrible jamWay down yonder in VietnamSo put down your books and pick up a gun,We’re gonna have a whole lotta fun.I digress.

  3. filistro says:

    Hmmm… look at that crowd in DC! Maybe they just underestimated the “Passion Of The Dems.”(Treme… do you know how to remove the bad line break in the first para. above? Thanks…)

  4. Monotreme says:

    I’ll fix it, but it will involve looking at Jillian Michaels’ picture.

  5. filistro says:

    I’ll fix it, but it will involve looking at Jillian Michaels’ picture.LOL… I agree, she IS daunting. Maybe if you have a wee spot of Dutch courage first? Too early…?I do appreciate the things you have to do for me 🙂

  6. dr_funguy says:

    Ah, another Phil Ochs fan!

  7. filistro says:

    I think there are a number of variables favoring Dems that might be under-considered. Nate keeps constantly hinting at many of them with a kind of dogged, low-key persistence that is meaningful if you’re tuned into Nate-speak.I can think of some others, but want to hear what you all have to say as well.I do believe one of the main factors is what I’ve said earlier… the Dem strategy of focusing on Tea Party insanity has (to an extent as yet unknowable) succeeded in turning this from a referendum to a choice election… the choice being “us, as inept and feckless as we’ve been… or those guys over there in the clown car.”I believe many many people are quietly alarmed and disgusted by the Tea Party bullies, and this will make a bigger difference than the pundits expect.I’m also astonished by the sheer numbers at Jon Stewart’s rally. I think that means something, too.

  8. shiloh says:

    @dr_funguyAh, another Phil Ochs fan!~~~~~Actually yes, but it’s a Country Joe McDonald original. :)and so it goes …

  9. Bart DePalma says:

    Fili::::smile:::I worry about you sometimes. Make sure you have a fresh bottle of Bailey’s for Tuesday night and hide your car keys.

  10. shiloh says:

    One knows when Bartles is being totally disingenuous when he uses::::chuckle::::::smile:::but it is kinda quaint 😉 for a winger troll …solo estoy diciendo

  11. filistro says:

    Bart… with Steve’s help I have just put a rather vicious hex on you. It involves significant ear-enlargement and elephant tusks beginning to sprout from your jowls.(A word of caution… be very careful tomorrow while shaving. 🙂

  12. dr_funguy says:

    Nope, Phil Ochs wrote it Country Joe covered it with the addition of the “FISH” cheershttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_Dodger_Rag

  13. shiloh says:

    Arguing politics w/me one may have a chance.Arguing the ’60s ~ no chance! :)Although as Robin Williams said quite eloquently: If you remember the ’60s, you weren’t there …carry on

  14. filistro says:

    One of the things that most fascinates me about politics is how memes get established, then spread, and finally become fixed.When the Tea Party first appeared the meme was a “citizen uprising”… ordinary Mom-and-Pop suddenly types getting involved in government.Do you notice how subtly that image has changed over time… and why?The Tea Party no longer seems so grass-roots and wholesome. It now has a whiff of darkness, an aura of suppressed violence and force about it. This new impression has been fixed by several recent widely-publicized incidents. Joe Miller’s goons handcuffing a reporter in AK… Tea Party men hitting women in WA, NV and KY… Sharron Angle talking about 2nd Amendment remedies… One distinctive, deeply innate thing about Americans (much more so than Canadians)… Americans absolutely HATE the feeling of being pushed around and bullied, even if someone assures them it’s for their own good. It just gets their backs up. I think this gradual evolution and subtle darkening of the Tea Party image is going to cost at least a couple of percentage points this cycle… and many of the polls are based on the older image, which was much less dark and threatening than the one the public now holds. JMO… but I’m seeing it everywhere. My crystal ball notwithstanding, I think the R’s will likely take the House… but much more narrowly than many pundits expect.

  15. dr_funguy says:

    Sorry I was confusing two songs…my bad flashback

  16. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “Bart… with Steve’s help I have just put a rather vicious hex on you. It involves significant ear-enlargement and elephant tusks beginning to sprout from your jowls. (A word of caution… be very careful tomorrow while shaving.”:::belly laugh of the month!:::Roll Tide!

  17. robert verdi says:

    say your scenario turns out true, the next two years are a run up to 2012 and what makes you think the Tea movement or the GOP revival somehow crested in 2010? This is just one election and to make enough inroads to leave the Dems in nominal charge of congress is a victory for a GOP that took a thumping two election cycles in a row. Additionally how did some Dems survive? Manchin called for repeal of Obamcare and put a bullet through cap and trade. Here in New York Gillebrand brags about the tax cuts she caused. As for governor, Cuomo sounds like he lifted Tea party talking points about how he is going to “stand” up to the Unions. In the house Heath Shuler, among others is calling for Pelosi’s departure. These are facts, not spin. In other words your best case scenario is major if not massive GOP gains.

  18. shiloh says:

    robert verdi I’m shocked, shocked I tell ‘ya that politicians are playing politics this election cycle, including teabaggers who couldn’t keep a consistent message if their life depended on it lol as they backtrack putting their feet in their mouths 24/7 re: the Constitution, SS, etc. etc.ie flip/floppersAgain, please tell me Reps er teabaggers and Dems aren’t acting like politicians …

  19. shrinkers says:

    Off-topic, but the crowd at the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear has been estimated at 150,000, or nearly twice that of Beck’s rally (someone yesterday opined it would be a “pale imitation” or some such). Looks like a great deal of fun!And so far, nearly an hour into it, not a whiff of politics, just great music and the Mythbusters! Talkabout restoring sanity!

  20. filistro says:

    robert… I hope the GOP DOES take the House. Having to assume power will hasten their inevitable demise, because the public will soon see there’s no “there” there.America is a huge, diverse, complex nation in a massively economically-interconnected world. Trying to run such an enormous and challenging country on the platform of “we hate the president, we’re against everything and we’re all about cutting taxes” is going to be a disaster… but at least it will be short-lived.

  21. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro: “One distinctive, deeply innate thing about Americans (much more so than Canadians)… Americans absolutely HATE the feeling of being pushed around and bullied, even if someone assures them it’s for their own good. It just gets their backs up.”Very astute observation about most Americans (if not most progressives), most especially Tea Party members. You may recall I noted that we meant the sentiment of the dozens of fluttering yellow Revolutionary War flags we fly at rallies with a coiled rattlesnake warning “Don’t Tread on Me.” Freedom and liberty have actual meaning to us.Fili: “When the Tea Party first appeared the meme was a “citizen uprising”… ordinary Mom-and-Pop suddenly types getting involved in government. Do you notice how subtly that image has changed over time… and why? The Tea Party no longer seems so grass-roots and wholesome. It now has a whiff of darkness, an aura of suppressed violence and force about it. This new impression has been fixed by several recent widely-publicized incidents. Joe Miller’s goons handcuffing a reporter in AK… Tea Party men hitting women in WA, NV and KY… Sharron Angle talking about 2nd Amendment remedies…”As opposed to SEIU thugs beating up Tea Party protesters? Things are occasionally getting heated, but very rarely devolve into pushing and shoving. There have been thousands of Tea Party rallies involving several hundred thousand participants for over a year now and nearly all of them have been peaceful demonstrations most closely resembling Independence Day picnics. If we in the Tea Party were predisposed to violence, there would be blood in the streets as we are very well armed and our ranks are filled with military veterans of the past few wars. Let’s pray our democracy works as designed and we never get close to another Revolution.

  22. filistro says:

    @Bart: Let’s pray our democracy works as designed and we never get close to another Revolution.How would you determine democracy had not “worked as designed”… and it was time to break out the ammo?Please rush your answer. I need to know right away if I should put some security at my place in Nevada.

  23. Bart DePalma says:

    shrinkers wrote: “Off-topic, but the crowd at the Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear has been estimated at 150,000, or nearly twice that of Beck’s rally (someone yesterday opined it would be a “pale imitation” or some such).”Beck packed the mall with around 300K. A WP reporter embedded with a busload of participants noted that the mall was so crowded that his folks could not hear the massive loudspeakers.The 9/12 Tea Party demonstration was close to a million.I want to see if the comedians will keep it light or it will turn into another leftist rant fest like the Ed Schulz “One Nation” union and wingnut group rally a couple weeks back.

  24. filistro says:

    Bart… wingnuts are righties.Their lefty counterparts are “moonbats.”

  25. shiloh says:

    Bartles is (((lying))) again ~ Shocking! 😉How big was the crowd at the Glenn Beck rally?The Glenn Beck rally on the National Mall Saturday drew between 300,000 and 500,000, according to Beck. CBS News hired a consultant with an expertise in aerial photography and came up with a total of 87,000. Other media outlets either wussed out and just said “thousands” or came up with their own estimates, mostly in the 80,000 to 200,000 range.~~~~~take care Bart

  26. Bart DePalma says:

    shiloh: How shocking! The Dem CBS news lowballs a conservative event. That “estimate” is about as genuine as Dan Rather’s Bush NG documents.

  27. filistro says:

    Here are some wonderful photos from the Rally For Sanity.They just make me smile. Seeing all these wholesome, nice, smart, HAPPY people out there in their thousands, gives me the feeling the world’s long dark nightmare may finally be ending.(My favorite sign.. “Hitler is Hitler” :-)LOL…

  28. Jean says:

    My favorite sign:”I spell check my political signs”

  29. Bart DePalma says:

    Fili:Not bad. Only 3/4 of the signs were pre-made and handed out to the participants.

  30. dr_funguy says:

    Sorry Bart,The mall is not packed with just 300,000 people (if Beck had that many, which I consider a pipe dream on your part- evidence please). I was there in 1970 (and saw the legendary Country Joe play his famous hit, I Feel Like I’m Fixin’ to Die Rag) for a gathering of abot 750,000; a sea of humanity from the Capitol to the Lincoln Memorial and filling the side-streets. At that point they close the 14th Street and Memorial Bridges and bus people over from the Pentagon.

  31. shiloh says:

    Bart That “estimate” is about as genuine as Dan Rather’s Bush NG documents.Expect better (((deflections))) from you. ok, that’s a lie lolsolo estoy diciendo

  32. filistro says:

    Bart… you really don’t get it, do you?The world is TIRED of your sour carping, your doom and gloom and fear-mongering and divisiveness. America is ready to be happy again.The worm has begun to turn, and the sun is climbing in the sky. It’s time to end Mourning in America.You’ll see the beginning of it at the polls on Tuesday. And in the year to come, the rising tide of optimism and happiness will roll over you and bury your grim little Tea Party in a flood of belly laughs and bonhomie. Mark my words.

  33. Bart DePalma says:

    dr_funguy wrote: “The mall is not packed with just 300,000 people”Depends on what you call the Mall. Beck’s folks were packing in between the trees but not quite out to the memorial. Beck’s rally was far short of the Country Joe gathering you describe and the Tea Party 9/12 rally.

  34. shiloh says:

    Bartles, why are you arguing minutia er crowd size.ie 60 million voted for McCain/palin2.6/2.8 watch prime time fixednoise = preaching to the choirthousands of inane, winger lemmings flock to Beck, a hyperbolic charlatan = preaching to the choir.iecrowd sizes/ratings = preaching to the choir = ad nauseam, useless minutia = not important.voters on election day = important.>As always, no charge for my keen grasp of the obvious …

  35. shiloh says:

    2.6/2.8 million

  36. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “Bart… you really don’t get it, do you? The world is TIRED of your sour carping, your doom and gloom and fear-mongering and divisiveness. America is ready to be happy again. The worm has begun to turn, and the sun is climbing in the sky. It’s time to end Mourning in America. You’ll see the beginning of it at the polls on Tuesday. And in the year to come, the rising tide of optimism and happiness will roll over you and bury your grim little Tea Party in a flood of belly laughs and bonhomie.”Backatchya. Milady, we in the Tea Party have been saying this for months about the grim left. In fact, you are actually using our phrases like “Mourning in America.”

    You really need to attend a Tea Party rally. They are celebrations of our Republic. Everyone is smiling and laughing. I was serious when I noted they are like Independence Day picnics. Go to my website and search for tea party rally for the photos from our rallies here in the Springs. The only time I saw a Tea Party really turn into a heated demonstration is when the smiling Dem House members marched through the rally outside Congress to taunt the Tea Party before ramming through Obamacare against the will of their constituents.On Tuesday, the voters will be celebrating as they run the now grim Dem Congress critters who enacted Mourning in America out of our capital and send in our representatives.

  37. Jean says:

    Another great sign: “what’s wrong with being the anti-Christ?”

  38. shrinkers says:

    My bad. There were a <thousand billion crazillion people at the Beck rally.:-) Bart, no one but the Beckishers believe Beck’s inflated numbers.But the real point is, people are having fun, and just not buying the fear.It’s a great show! I hope you’re watching!

  39. shrinkers says:

    Geez my corrected number didn’t show up in my last post. I admitted there were a million brillion crazillion people at Beck’s rally. They had to stand a thousand deep.

  40. Bart DePalma says:

    shiloh wrote: “Bartles, why are you arguing minutia er crowd size.”Because it is fun. It is a constant source of amazement to me that the Tea Party can keep getting enormous crowds of conservative middle class folks out across the country on their own dime. Conservatives do not do demonstrations.During my near 50 years, I have participated in three of these libertarian/conservative rebellions – 80, 94 and now 10. I have never seen anything like the Tea Party before. 80 and 94 were led by Reagan and Gingrich through the GOP. Despite the best efforts of the left to paint it as a tool of the GOP and/or the corporations, the Tea Party is a genuine mass grass roots movement. The last time we had a mass grassroots movement for limited government was during the Revolution. That is why it scares the hell out of the establishments of both parties.However, all fun aside, you are right. The only number that counts is the vote on Tuesday.

  41. shrinkers says:

    My favorite sign – “Sane is sexy”

  42. Housekeeping says:

    Ending the rightward slant to recent posts…

  43. shrinkers says:

    , the Tea Party is a genuine mass grass roots movement. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !Oh my gods, you say that as if you believe it!Hee Hee Hee Hee Hee !Oh my, that’s rich! I didn’t realize you could be so funny!HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !Oh, i’ll be okay in a minute ….heeheeheeeheehee….

  44. filistro says:

    From Mark Blumenthal… some further reasons that pollsters just might be getting it all wrong in the House races: * “House polling does not have much depth: Only five districts, as of this writing, have produced 10 or more polls, while more than half (89) have five or fewer and 18 have just one. * “Much of it is dated: As of this writing, the overwhelming majority of the 113 districts we are tracking have either no polls at all (27), just one (36) or just two polls (30) during the month of October. Only 26 districts have three or more October polls. * “Partisan polls are plentiful: More than half of the House polls we have entered (257 of 499) were internal polls sponsored by campaigns or campaign committees, though that does not count another 23 conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling (PPP). Of the 257 campaign polls, two-thirds (157) were sponsored by the Republicans.”

  45. shiloh says:

    @Bartlesyou are actually using our phrases like “Mourning in America.”~~~~~Bart, why did you steal my (5) stages of dying meme I used to (((bury))) you 😉 3/4 times at Nate’s old blog. Don’t teabaggers have any originality, eh. ~ Rhetorical question.However, all fun aside, you are right.Indeed! as it’s a curse …always being right!btw, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery! :)take care

  46. filistro says:

    Jon Stewart… “We live in hard times… not END times.””We can have animus without being enemies.”

  47. Bart DePalma says:

    Looks like concerts and comedy outdraws bile among lefties. The Stewart rally is being estimated at 150K, about double the Ed Shultz rant fest a couple weeks ago.Have fun.

  48. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “From Mark Blumenthal… some further reasons that pollsters just might be getting it all wrong in the House races…”Do you realize how grasping this sounds?

  49. shiloh says:

    Just got an election call asking me if I was voting for Strickland. Told her I’m voting straight Dem, except for Portage County Auditor, Janet Esposito.Jan’s a very friendly Rep, shocking 😉 who worked in the same building as me from 1991 to 1995. Coincidentally, we met each other at the Akron/Canton airport just before Thanksgiving 2000 when the presidential election was still not decided and remember chatting w/her about the why’s and wherefore’s and of course this was before I started (((correcting))) 😉 Reps on the net in 2003.One very important factor of a successful local politician is being friendly 24/7 w/your constituents ie county fairs, religious group meetings, ethnic group meetings, etc. :)carry on

  50. shrinkers says:

    Stewart gave a wonderful speech. It would be something if out politicians and the “news” channels took those sentiments to heart. But what’s really needed is for the public to.It was a great rally. Entertaining, smart, fun, funny. Brilliantly done.

  51. shortchain says:

    Bart,It’s one thing to dispute crowd counts where neither side gives their methodology. It’s quite another thing when the methodology was clearly spelled out on one side, while the other side has nothing.If you don’t like the estimate provided by CBS’ consultant, who used statistical sampling of crowd photographs, then speak to the statistics. Your argument otherwise is simply ad hominem.

  52. Mule Rider says:

    “If you don’t like the estimate provided by CBS’ consultant, who used statistical sampling of crowd photographs, then speak to the statistics.”I’ll respond about the crowd size estimate for Beck’s rally (87,000). My thoughts aren’t necessarily scientific, per se, just observational. First of all, anyone claiming there were “several” hundred thousand people at Beck’s rally is grossly exaggerating, and anyone (Bachmann) claiming 1 million plus must be on crack.However, I’m very familiar with the National Mall area…the space, its size, etc. And I’m a big-time sports nut who has been to several collegiate and professional sporting events with crowds ranging from 50,000 to 75,000. Judging by what I saw in the pictures, there was at least twice to maybe as much as three tims as many people as some of the average college football games I’ve attended. My guess would put the total between 125,000 and 175,000, so probably about 150,000. Neary double what CBS estimated, but half as much or less as what Beck and many others reported.

  53. Bart DePalma says:

    Here are photos from the Beck Rally:http://www.therightscoop.com/photos-glenn-becks-restoring-honor-rallyAnd photos and traffic video of the far larger 9/12 Rally:http://citizen-pamphleteer.blogspot.com/2009/09/spirit-of-912.htmlJudge for yourself.

  54. dr_funguy says:

    FLASH: MR Concludes Bart must be on crack -BDP: “Today, an estimated 1 to 2 million Tea Party patriots marched on Washington D.C. …”MR: “…anyone (Bachmann[Bart]) claiming 1 million plus must be on crack”fwiw I grew up in the DC area and am quite familiar with the mall area also. I think MR is about right in his estimate.

  55. shrinkers says:

    Bart, you’re welcome to your view. I’ll trust the people who are in the business of giving fair and accurate crowd size estimates with actual statistical tools. You are welcome to trust your partisans with a vested interest in inflating the numbers.And yes, we’re all aware that the right wing loves to demonize the mainstream media for being leftist. You may have the last word.

  56. shiloh says:

    Bart, the expression beating a dead horse comes to mind …take care

  57. Mule Rider says:

    “I’ll trust the people who are in the business of giving fair and accurate crowd size estimates with actual statistical tools.”We can debate what is “fair,” but an estimate of 87,000 is hardly “accurate.”Here’s Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. http://mall.ballparks.com/product_info.php?products_id=3246It has a total seating capacity of nearly 105,000. No way the crowd at the Beck rally was smaller than that stadium when it’s filled. Like I said, I don’t buy into the significantly higher estimates (250,000+), but you can easily tell it was considerably larger than 87,000.

  58. shrinkers says:

    Another wonderful quote from the rally:’If we amplify everything, we hear nothing’

  59. Bart DePalma says:

    shrinkers wrote: “Another wonderful quote from the rally: ‘If we amplify everything, we hear nothing'”Translation: “Can’t you uncouth loud people just go away.”Fili, you are our resident amateur political anthropologist. What do you make of the divide on left between the nice upper middle class folks (like you) at the Stewart rally and the haters (or what the Obama folks call “the professional left”) at the earlier Ed Schultz rally?I am seriously interested. I have added a chapter to my book about our ideological divide and am still trying to figure out the various phylums of the left.

  60. Whatevs says:

    Recently barted;As opposed to SEIU thugs beating up Tea Party protesters?WTF? Show me the video?The 9/12 Tea Party demonstration was close to a million.You are so COMPLETELY out of your fucking mind that it’s beyond belief. The level of cognitive dissonance is off the chart. It’s an 11 of volume on my guitar amplifier. It’s a level 7 hurricane; 14 on the Richter scale; class 6 rapids; an 8.8 route up an inverted vertical climb; warp 13 on the Enterprise; 186,001 miles per second. Your rose coloured glasses are so rosy, you see the world in infrared. You defy the laws of physics, logic, and common sense combined.This is not an observation. nor is it opinion. You, sir, are a complete and utter moron.That being said, at least you’re entertaining.

  61. filistro says:

    @Bart What do you make of the divide on left between the nice upper middle class folks (like you) at the Stewart rally and the haters (or what the Obama folks call “the professional left”) at the earlier Ed Schultz rally?Political attitudes fall on a Gaussian curve, Bart. People like me (and most of the other regulars in here) fall to the left of the curve, but still near/in the bulge. People like robert, Grog, parksie and muley are in a corresponding position on the right side of the chart.The Ed Schultz “haters” are way out on the skinny edge to the far left… as are the Tea Party head-stompers on the right.You, too, are pretty far out on that skinny edge, which used to puzzle me quite a lot until I figured you out. It’s not that you’re rabid, violent, or a “hater” (I suspect you are actually quite fond of us all, deep in your little black heart ;-)It’s that you are a true romantic. There’s something about the Tea Party message… an older, simpler time, a less diverse America, an easily quantified and more whoelome existence… that stirs something deep in your soul.Because I’ve come to understand this, I’m able to forgive you for many of your excesses. (This does not, however, prevent me from frequently wanting to hit you really hard with the first heavy object that comes to hand 🙂

  62. shiloh says:

    Whatevs, don’t be bashful er mince, candy-coat your words …apologies to morons

  63. filistro says:

    @Whatevs: The level of cognitive dissonance is off the chart. It’s an 11 of volume on my guitar amplifier. It’s a level 7 hurricane; 14 on the Richter scale; class 6 rapids; an 8.8 route up an inverted vertical climb; warp 13 on the Enterprise; 186,001 miles per second. Your rose coloured glasses are so rosy, you see the world in infrared. You defy the laws of physics, logic, and common sense combined.LOLOLOL… this may be my favorite passage of prose EVER. Wonderful. I am in awe. Whoever you are, whatevs, we need to see more of you!

  64. shiloh says:

    Fili, stop teasing Bart as he’s to the right of Attila the Hun. ;)just sayin’

  65. filistro says:

    186,001 miles per second!LOLOL… oh my.I needed that… 🙂 🙂

  66. shortchain says:

    Muley,I think there’s a flaw in your analysis. Consider: stadiums pack people together (by design). If people, unconstrained by the seating design, don’t pack themselves as closely, your estimates will be off. For example, if the packing is off by 1.4 in each direction, then the overall density per square meter will be off by a factor of 2.This is sufficient to account for the difference between your estimate and the one by the consultant — which, by the way, includes error allowances.

  67. filistro says:

    shiloh… I have a really sore foot. Teasing Bart is one of the few recreations I’m allowed to enjoy right now.

  68. Jean says:

    More great signs:”The Founding Fathers Fathered Anchor Babies””If Obama’s a Muslim, can we have Fridays off?”

  69. filistro says:

    shortchain… we must also remember the avoirdupois factor.Liberals are statistically leaner than conservatives (witness the obesity rates in red states) so it takes more of them to fill a given space.

  70. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “It’s that you are a true romantic.”Guilty as charged. Now that you bring it up, if you want to understand the Tea Party, get off the “head stomper” dead end and try studying the movement from the angle of romanticism.Indeed, thanks for the tip. I am actually starting work on the Tea Party chapter of my book today and I need to think myself about whether there is an element of romanticism in the Tea Party’s POV.

  71. Alki says:

    OOps! Cook is having to revise his numbers in favor of the Dems:Cook Political Report adjusts Senate outlook to reflect a net GOP gain of 6-8 seats, down from 7-9.http://twitter.com/Senatus

  72. shortchain says:

    Romanticism is so easily confused with insanity, it’s going to be a tough call to distinguish the two.But I’m sure Bart is up to the task…

  73. Mule Rider says:

    @shortchain,I’ve taken as much of that (density) into consideration as possible, and based on what I’ve seen, I don’t see how any way that there were fewer than 125,000 people at that rally. But if telling yourself it was smaller helps you sleep at night, be my guest. I’ve got no dog in the fight. I don’t really know Beck that well, and I’m certainly not that fond of Palin. I have sympathies that overlap with the theme of their rally, but I had no motivation to attend or support it in other ways. But seeing an estimate that fewer than 90,000 people where there knowing the size/scope of that area, I have to laught at it.

  74. Mule Rider says:

    It’ll be fun to see pictures from today’s events and the crowd size estimates for them. Something tells me that pictures will show fewer people in attendance than the Beck rally but we’ll hear of an “official” number north of 100,000.

  75. Alki says:

    Oops! Cook is having to revise his numbers in favor of the Dems:Cook Political Report adjusts Senate outlook to reflect a net GOP gain of 6-8 seats, down from 7-9.http://twitter.com/Senatus

  76. filistro says:

    whether there is an element of romanticism in the Tea Party’s POV.Well, Bart… OF COURSE there is.That’s what makes it so dangerous. Because while romanticism can be quite winsome and endearing in an individual, it is deadly in a political leader or the head of a business.The antonym of romanticism is realism. And this, of all times in history, is a time when we need realism from our decision makers. Romantic notions of yesteryear may be warm and fuzzy, but they won’t solve any of today’s problems.

  77. shortchain says:

    Muley,I’ve also got no position to defend other than relentless rationality and attention to mathematical purity. :)Whether it’s 87,000, or 150,000 for Beck, and 87,000 or 150,000 for sanity or fear makes little difference, other than that the number of people (to a close order of magnitude) who think we need to “restore honor” (whatever that means) is about the same as those who think politics, in this nation, is a joke, is about equal.That says something profound.

  78. Bart DePalma says:

    The density of a rally is certainly 2/3 to half of a football stadium. Then again, the area occupied by the Beck rally was several rimes as large as the seating area in Mule’s stadium.The 9/12 Rally was upwards of a million. The Park Service was telling the press they were going to measure it against the record of 1.2 mil or so (until the higher ups nuked that idea). Beck’s rally looks to be half to a third of that number.

  79. Jean says:

    Bart,re: Now that you bring it up, if you want to understand the Tea Party, get off the “head stomper” dead end and try studying the movement from the angle of romanticism.Romanticism? Hardly. It is more the far right rises from its dormancy whenever liberals gain political power. http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/taking-tea-party-seriously

  80. Mule Rider says:

    “That says something profound.”We can agree on this point. Oddly enough, and maybe this speaks to the similarity in size at both events, but I can certainly sympathize on both of the primary themes at each event.I can certainly see how this nation has gotten off track and needs to “restore honor” (I take that as being more thoughtful and introspective in guiding the decisions we make and turning more to God for those who consider themselves believers), but I can certainly sympathize with the idea that there is too much shouting and that politics is mostly one big joke.

  81. filistro says:

    @Alki… Cook Political Report adjusts Senate outlook to reflect a net GOP gain of 6-8 seats, down from 7-9.Well, isn’t that interesting?I didn’t realize it was a scientific property of tsunamis that they can wash ashore with massive, devastating, earth-shattering force… but somehow only on a PART OF THE BEACH.Hmmm… 🙂

  82. Mule Rider says:

    “get off the “head stomper” dead end and”I love how the left is using this one isolated incident to try and smear most right-leaning people as bullies who use aggression to make their point.Shall I resort to insinuating you guys are a bunch of flag-burning eco-terrorists who like harassing non-union workers? I don’t want to but there are certainly examples of leftists:1) burning flags and shouting unpatriotic remarks about America2) committing eco-terrorism, and3) being union bullies and using threats, harassment, and intimidation against non-union employees. Get the f***ing log out of your eye before you point out the splinter in mine, m’kay?

  83. Bart DePalma says:

    Cook now thinks that CA and WA will stay blue. interesting take since the WA race is now a tie in last week’s polls.

  84. shortchain says:

    Muley,That was Bart bringing the head stomper.We beat that to death in the other thread, and I, for one, am done with it.I don’t know why Bart brought it up, you’ll have to ask him what he thought it has to do with anything on this thread.

  85. filistro says:

    Muley… there are three recent cases where male Tea Party supporters have HIT WOMEN at rallies. One in NV, one in WA, and this one in KY.Like it or not, once you’re got three, you’ve got a pattern. It doesn’t matter if you complain about it here at a tiny political blog… the video of those three incidents is all over America by now.OTOH there are no documented cases of liberal guys hitting right-wing women at rallies.

  86. Whatevs says:

    Let me guess, Bart, You think Thomas Kincaide is a great artist and have several of his cheesy paintings in your house.Harkoning back to the simpler, more bucolic days THAT NEVER REALLY EXISTED.

  87. Mule Rider says:

    “OTOH there are no documented cases of liberal guys hitting right-wing women at rallies.”No, but there are plenty of documented cases of all the things I mentioned. My point being that if you continue to pull out the few bad apples in the crowd as a way of trying to smear the bigger group, then I’m going to keep pointing out all the bad apples on your side. So like it or not, you’ve got multiple instances of egregious behavior, and it’s a pattern.

  88. Realist says:

    @Mule,So like it or not, you’ve got multiple instances of egregious behavior, and it’s a pattern.I follow the first part, but not the second. Could you elaborate on the pattern?

  89. filistro says:

    @Muley.. My point being that if you continue to pull out the few bad apples in the crowd as a way of trying to smear the bigger group, then I’m going to keep pointing out all the bad apples on your side.And my point is that it doesn’t make a bit of difference WHAT you do (or what we do, for that matter.) What matters is the perception that is already out there. And whether it’s fair or not, it is what it is. The public is a lot nore likely to pay attention to old guys hitting young women at political rallies than they are to people burning flags or “shouting unpatrioticc things.”It’s just human nature to be riveted by images of conflict and physical violence… especially when it’s a bit unusual, as in “man hits girl in front of everybody.” It creates an impression of poor judgment and uncontrolled rage. Once formed and fixed, that impression can’t easily be changed.

  90. Mule Rider says:

    Prediction, filistro:Those isolated incidents of “poor judgment” and “uncontrolled rage” have practically ZERO impact on how people vote. I would say nearly everyone except for maybe a very small handful (Does anyone seriously think more than 100 people nationwide will change their votes because of these events???) will vote exactly the same as before this incidents took place. They’ll be rightly condemned and the offenders excoriated in the court of public opinion (and maybe even the real court), but this false meme of it being part of a bigger pattern of bullyishness doesn’t have legs.

  91. Mule Rider says:

    Your wishful thinking aside, filistro, a couple of knuckle-draggers being forceful with women doesn’t tarnish the candidates they support, nor should it. Rand Paul reacted properly to the incident in condemning it an distancing himself from the aggressor. What more do you want from him? Again, you don’t like political opportunism by the right when they try and associate fringe left elements with the candidates they support, and they usually (and rightly) faili with those associations, so why do they think it should work here?Wishful thinking, I guess.Sorry, fili. You better go ahead and get used to the idea that Obama is going to be dealing with much more Republican influence in the next Congress. There will almost certainly be 230 House Republicans and a nearly even split among Senators, so the sooner you come to grips with that, the better.

  92. filistro says:

    @Muley… (Does anyone seriously think more than 100 people nationwide will change their votes because of these events???Yes, I agree. It’s not an election game-changer except possibly as a small motivation in the actual areas where these things happened.But long-term it does contribute to the image the public is building of the Tea Party… which will affect their ability to have an impact if a number of them win their elections.It doesn’t take much to build a public impression. Take Gerald Ford… probably the most athletic president ever, but he stumbled a couple of times getting off an airplane and fixed his image forever in the American psyche as a stumbler and bumbler.I predict these scattered incidents of “old white guy” rage against women are going to be similar.

  93. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain wrote: “…the number of people (to a close order of magnitude) who think we need to “restore honor” (whatever that means) is about the same as those who think politics, in this nation, is a joke, is about equal. That says something profound.”Indeed it does.Honor is honesty, integrity and fairness. The military officer corps summarizes honor concisely in the pledge that I will not lie, cheat or steal, nor (this is important) tolerate those who do.I tend to agree with you that those of us who believe in and try to follow a code of honor also believe the political system is FUBAR. There is a correlation there.Beck was calling for the restoration of honor to our government with heavy religious undertones.Good luck with that.I agree with Lord Acton that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Thus, government is irredeemably corrupt. You cannot restore honor to an institution which is incapable of exercising it. You can only limit the institution’s reach.

  94. Jean says:

    Bart,re: Beck was calling for the restoration of honor to our government with heavy religious undertones. Good luck with that.I agree, Bart. Good luck with that, Beck. It really comes down to the distinction between “a secular nation with a Christian majority” and “a nation based on Christian rule” — and some people are willing to use the term “Christian nation” to describe both. Beck comes down heavily on this side that this is a “Christian nation”. And that is what will hurt you teapers who are the “fiscally conservative” faction of the Tea Party.

  95. Mr. Universe says:

    Ah, I see we’re already into the attendance for the Rally to Restore Sanity. Most estimates I’ve seen on the internets say between 200,000 and 250,000. That looks about right. FOX, predictably, downplayed it by saying merely ‘thousands’.

  96. Bart DePalma says:

    The Freepers appear to have nothing better to do than compare photos of the Beck and Stewart rallies. FWIW:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2617813/replies?c=82

  97. filistro says:

    The massive attendance at today’s rally plays nicely into my speculation on how the polls might possibly be wrong. All those stories about Dems being detached and disinclined to vote this year… what if they’re WRONG?Another factor that’s not being considered enough is the Dem ground game. I don’t know why but every election, the GOP winds up being flabbergasted by the Dems’ ability to turn out their voters and get them to the polls. You’d think by now they’d realize… Dems are GOOD at this. I actually thought this was going to be a pretty boring ho-hum mid-term election… but it gets more exciting with every passing hour 🙂

  98. shortchain says:

    Bart,Honor is inextricably bound to shame — yet shame is an emotion some people seem born unable to feel (Newt Gingrich and Karl Rove come to mind here — as well as Rod Blagojevitch)It doesn’t automatically follow that government, per se, is corrupt. There is, however, the tendency toward corruption that must be fought unceasingly. The same holds true for all organizations. When the leadership of an organization, whether a government, political party, union, or even a charity, starts regarding the organization as a means by which they obtain or perpetuate their personal power, wealth, or influence, that organization’s members are not likely to be well served.As new and disorganized as the Tea Party groups are, there are already those within the leadership who are scheming to wield their influence, not for the general good of the membership, but for their own aggrandizement.But crippling an organization so that it has no power does not automatically produce a kinder, gentler organization. What happens instead is that the organization is likely to be pushed aside and replaced by another organization, one powerful enough to interfere in the lives of its members.”The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.” Note, not “the price of freedom is having a weak and ineffectual government”, but eternal vigilance. All that a weak and ineffectual government buys you is victimization by organizations and powerful people less weak and ineffectual.We need government to be powerful enough to protect the vast, powerless majority from the powerful individuals and organizations (such as other governments) who would otherwise use us about like toilet paper. But we also need to prevent government from itself running roughshod over us. (Of course, there’s also the very real danger that the wealthy and powerful will gain control of our government and use it to make us peons, but, thanks to Citizens United, there’s no danger at present of that.)It’s an eternal tightrope walk, not a magician’s vanishing act. (I had to tie it in somehow with the theme of the thread.)

  99. Alki says:

    @ Bart…..”Cook now thinks that CA and WA will stay blue. interesting take since the WA race is now a tie in last week’s polls.”****************************************Uh…….you missed a poll, Bart……the WA Poll:Finally, a state-based poll, KCTS-9/KPLU/Washington Poll, which gives Murray a 51-45 lead among likely voters:http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/kplu/news.newsmain/article/0/1/1718717/KPLU.Local.News/Washington.Poll.Murray-Rossi.Race.TightensIt seems Murray gets over the magical 50% when you take into account likely voters.And what Cook is also picking not just here but across the country is a Dem surge. Dems aren’t coming home; they are flocking home!Let’s see what that does to the polls come Tuesday.

  100. Alki says:

    @ filistro”I didn’t realize it was a scientific property of tsunamis that they can wash ashore with massive, devastating, earth-shattering force… but somehow only on a PART OF THE BEACH.”********************************************************************************Funny thing about tsunamis. They can be horrendously big…..over 30′ or they can be like the tsunami that hit HW…..it hit all the islands but was only 3′ high. Not sure but I am starting to think the GOP tsunami may not be as big as the pundits have led up us to believe.Early voting shows Dems ahead in OH, NV, IA, WA state, ILL etc. In other states, not so much. So we shall see.

  101. filistro says:

    Alki… I’m wondering how a tsunami can hit the House while somehow the Senate is spared. Especially when, historically, they tend to track quite closely.Cook’s abrupt pullback in the Senate is, I think, potentially quite significant.I still don’t know what’s making the difference, though (which was the original intent of the thread. :-)If things are suddenly starting to shift toward the Dems… WHY is this happening?

  102. Alki says:

    Here in WA state…..voters are jazzed:“Secretary of State Sam Reed predicts the best midterm election turnout in 40 years, at 66 percent.”

  103. filistro says:

    Here in WA state…..voters are jazzed: Nate just put up a new post… situation generally unchanged, but says WA is “very important” to his model. I assume a huge turnout benefits Murray, since WA is pretty blue overall?WA7th says flatly that WA will NEVER go to Rossi… (has been saying that for weeks, actually.)

  104. Scott says:

    If things are suddenly starting to shift toward the Dems… WHY is this happening?I don’t think it’s a shift; I think people are finally just waking up from a 2-year nap.

  105. shortchain says:

    Has this been discussed and I missed it? The the current models of the effect of “voter enthusiasm” are built, I presume, on the most recent election where that displayed, namely 2008.But the problem is that there is no innate reason why GOP voters and Democratic Party voters would be the same, voting behavior-wise, when it comes to whether enthusiasm matters.I hear left-ish folks say all the time, “I’ll hold my nose and vote for so-and-so.” But I can’t remember hearing one of my right-ish neighbors or acquaintances say that.As I said, I don’t know if that’s been discussed, so, if it’s been discussed and dismissed, just let me know.

  106. Eusebio Dunkle says:

    The sanity rally was great. Despite the outcome of the elections, it is a much needed boost to my spirit. I traveled from MN and spent much of my time with new friends from MN, WV(LOL) and OH. I have no intention of voting for major party candidates (except for my evil Muslim terrorist MN house rep) so I am glad there was no direct political advocacy. However there was a clear message to the rally and I defy anyone to criticize it for then we will know who to ignore.I believe 150k was the figure required to fill the space. Anyone who looked around would have noticed many beyond the gates, portipotties, streets, trees, and national museums. Bart’s (why do you put up with his flagrant dishonesty here?) freeper image of the rally amused me. not only does the circled oval misrepresent the permitted area for the rally, but the picture seems to be taken before 9:00AM at which people were turned away from the 7th st. section (AKA LAST SECTION) due to overfilling. Although MR may boast of his crowd estimation skills, I trust paid consultants. Lets use 150k (the number that could fit – ignoring the overflow) and wait and see what they come with. I overheard that there were 350k metro rides before 3PM, which is a typical number for Saturday metro rides, which mostly occur in the evening… Not including cars, buses, and the huff po buses from nyc…

  107. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain wrote: “I hear left-ish folks say all the time, “I’ll hold my nose and vote for so-and-so.” But I can’t remember hearing one of my right-ish neighbors or acquaintances say that.”2/3 of your base – minorities and the young are checking out. The only Dems with any enthusiasm are white, middle to upper middle class folks.

  108. Bart DePalma says:

    Alki:The most recent quality polls all have the WA Senate race in a dead heat.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wa/washington_senate_rossi_vs_murray-1183.htmlI have never heard of your local pollster.

  109. Monotreme says:

    Barted at 2:09 pm:I am seriously interested. I have added a chapter to my book about our ideological divide and am still trying to figure out the various phylums of the left.Barted at 7:52 pm:2/3 of your base – minorities and the young are checking out. The only Dems with any enthusiasm are white, middle to upper middle class folks.It didn’t take long for you to figure out the left, did it? In five hours, you went from puzzlement to absolute, rock-solid certainty.Or, you’re full of crap.

  110. shortchain says:

    Bart,Could there be a bit of projection in your conceptualization of how minorities and the young are “checking out”? And as I said, is there any firm reason to believe that voter enthusiasm is as necessary on the left as on the right?This is, after all, one of the failings of the chattering pundits — they tend to see both left and right as the same. So they may not be able to detect an asymmetry of the type I hypothesized.Note: I’m not saying this is an actual phenomenon. I’m giving a possible answer to the question, “If things turn out far less Republican than the pollsters expect, what will be the explanation?”

  111. filistro says:

    But I can’t remember hearing one of my right-ish neighbors or acquaintances say thatNo… I don’t think we’ve considered this motivational difference in voting patterns.In fact, the whole mantra of the right this year (at least among the Freepers) is NOT SETTLING. They refuse to vote for the lesser of the two evils. They insist they will NOT hold their nose and vote for a RINO in order to defeat a Dem. They LOVE having O’Donnell floundering around in DE, even though they know Castle could have won it handily. They are sending a message, afire with a white hot passion, on a Holy Crusade.Dems, meanwhile, are just trudging dutifully to the polls to cast their vote because that’s what good citizens are supposed to do.The fact remains… in spite of all the sound and fury, all the polls and prognostications… if even a slightly larger-than-expected fraction of the youth vote and the black vote turn out on Tuesday, the difference could be enormous.

  112. Jean says:

    Eustibio Dunkle,Re: I have no intention of voting for major party candidates (except for my evil Muslim terrorist MN house rep.)Why would you vote for Ellison, but not vote for Mark Dayton, instead of Tom Emmer?If you are voting for Tom Horner (Republican running as Independent)and Keith Ellison (the Muslim you refer to), I’d be interested in the logic of your choices. You’d prefer Governor Tom Emmer and House Rep Keith Ellison?

  113. Jean says:

    Monotreme,re: 2/3 of your base – minorities and the young are checking out. The only Dems with any enthusiasm are white, middle to upper middle class folks.See http://www.salon.com/wires/politics/10/30/D9J5TP9G0_us_young_voters_tea_party/index.html

  114. shrinkers says:

    @Bart2/3 of your base – minorities and the young are checking out.LOL! You’re always amusing! Truly, you need to take that show on the road!

  115. Bart DePalma says:

    shrinkers/mono:Take a look at the VA, NJ and MA elections and all the recent polling.The minorities and young usually check out during midterms and this one is worse than usual.Apart from the fact that about 85% of Tea Party folks are saying they are certain to vote, why do you think that the GOP has an historically enormous enthusiasm chasm in any half reliable Dem or GOP poll???No amount of LOLs and irrelevant nonsense about the TP “alienating” young voters is going to change the facts on the ground.

  116. dr_funguy says:

    Bart, Why such a transparent lie?In case you can’t read the below, the four most recent poles show Murray +6, +1, -1, tie. From RCP.Rasmussen Reports 10/27 – 10/27 750 LV 47 48 Rossi +1 McClatchy/Marist 10/26 – 10/28 638 LV 49 48 Murray +1 SurveyUSA 10/24 – 10/27 678 LV 47 47 Tie The Washington Poll 10/18 – 10/28 348 LV 51 45 Murray +6

  117. Jean says:

    Oops, my mistake, Monotreme. My comment was directed to Bart. Bart barted: 2/3 of your base – minorities and the young are checking out. The only Dems with any enthusiasm are white, middle to upper middle class folks.The young checking out? Hardly. http://www.salon.com/wires/politics/10/30/D9J5TP9G0_us_young_voters_tea_party/index.html

  118. Monotreme says:

    @Jean:De nada. I figured it out already.

  119. shiloh says:

    Barted: No amount of LOLssays the disingenuous schmuck who uses :::smile::: ~ :::chuckle:::as Bartles continues to make shit up lolapologies to disingenuous schmucks …

  120. shrinkers says:

    Bart, let’s talk again a decade from now about minorities and young people, k?

  121. Alki says:

    @ filistro”Alki… I’m wondering how a tsunami can hit the House while somehow the Senate is spared. Especially when, historically, they tend to track quite closely.”************************************Well part of the reason is that not every senator is up for re election this cycle. Then again, its very common to have both houses flip parties during the midterms.If both houses do not flip to the GOP, my explanation is that Dems and left leaning indies are more awake than they have been in a long time and they are not paying as much attention to the narrative the MSM has been pushing.You assume that the American MSM and pollsters have been telling the truth. I am not so sure. American MSM = large corps. There is reason for them to promote the enthusiasm gap meme. Its good for their business…….it constrains Obama from acting.************************************************************”Cook’s abrupt pullback in the Senate is, I think, potentially quite significant.”*****************Maybe, maybe not. I think Cook is finally getting honest. I don’t trust any of these people who try to shape American elections. They all have their agendas. America’s power structure and elite are very center right. They have played the American public for decades. I think Americans are finally waking up to that fact and making up their own minds. ********************************************************************************”I still don’t know what’s making the difference, though (which was the original intent of the thread.” *************I don’t think much has changed. I think its always been like this. I think the enthusiasm gap was a media created drama with some validity, assisted by the teapers who really are a very small part of the American landscape but have gotten an inordinate amount of attention. Why? Why has the media given them and Palin…..who is a total idiot…so much attention?I think a few pollsters like Cook got the entusiasm gap narrative started and everyone has fallen into line. I think I am pretty typical of many Americans. I used to be very apolitical……never paid much attention to what was going on. I just noticed I never got good choices for president and rarely voted for someone who got elected. And then Bush and 2000 happened and I woke up. I realized how the Rs and their minions like Bart were steering the conversation and how frequently they were lying. To me the Rs are like the Wizard of Oz, empty suits behind the curtain. And I think these days that image is true for a lot of Americans. ****************************************************************”If things are suddenly starting to shift toward the Dems… WHY is this happening?”***************Again I think its been this way from the getgo. We just weren’t getting the truth. We’ll know better after Tuesday. BTW I still think we will lose the House. Gerrymandering pretty much guarantees it.

  122. Alki says:

    @ Bart…….First of all, who are you to determine the “quality” pollsters? The House of Ras is owned by the GOP. That definitely does not smack of quality.As for the WA poll, its a well respect poll in WA state. Here is come background:http://www.washingtonpoll.org/

  123. Bart DePalma says:

    AlkiA poll of only 348 spread over ten days is hardly accurate.

  124. shortchain says:

    Bart,We can’t know if it’s “accurate”, as the election hasn’t been held. We can, however, criticize it on the basis of having too few samples to give a decently small confidence interval…

  125. Bart DePalma says:

    The Dems are not even waiting for Wednesday to begin the scapegoating. Obama groupie Maureen Dowd has turned on her rock star idol today in a nearly incoherent rant hitting on most of the traditional Dem excuses for losing elections and blaming The Dude (The One is now The Dude in Dowd World) for not overcoming them.http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/opinion/31dowd.html?ref=opinion

  126. Bart DePalma says:

    Apparently, Dowd’s disillusionment shared by almost half of Dem voters, who in a recent poll want a 2012 primary challenge to Obama.http://www.wtop.com/?nid=213&sid=2099680How many of you Dems agree?

  127. filistro says:

    Sorry Bart, did you say something?We’re all busy in the backroom, building our Surefire Acme Election Bomb.Heading your way in two days. Be Very Afraid 🙂

  128. dr_funguy says:

    BartHave you stopped beating your wife lately?Dowd Writes an Incoherant Rant is on a par with Dog Bites Man or Limbaugh Lies.Let us know when you have some actual, you know, news.

  129. filistro says:

    Wow… watching MTP. It’s like they’re talking directly to Bart. Chuck Todd points out if the GOP wins 70 seats (what he sees as their ceiling) they will still have a smaller majority than the Dems have right now. And Charlie Cook says (paraphrase.. can’t type fast enough) Republicans are going to be beneficiaries in this election, not victors. They’ll be in big trouble if they mistake this for a mandate. The country is definitely not in love with Republicans.The whole panel sees gridlock and internecine warfare over the next two years. (So do I.)As robert verdi said (bless you, robert :-)… the election eve is going to feel a lot different two years from now.That’s why politics is so much fun. (Somebody please remind me this is FUN… 😦

  130. Bart DePalma says:

    Fili:The coming tsunami is not a blank check for the GOP to do whatever it damn well pleases just as the 2006 and 2008 elections did not grant such a license to the Dems.The coming tsunami is a massive mandate in general to reduce the size and power of the federal government and the federal borrowing to finance it. Specifically, poll after poll after poll suggest that majorities of voters want the TARP, Porkulus and Obamacare repealed.This is the voters’ mandate for both the GOP and Dems sent to the next Congress.Let’s see if they listen this time.

  131. Bart DePalma says:

    Once you get beyond the current voter rebellion, the most important outcome of this election may be at the state level. The Dems had the misfortune of having their hiccup of power between redistricting sessions. It appears that the voters are prepared to give a heavy majority of governors and state legislatures back to the GOP in 2010 in time for the 2011 redistricting. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/251608/gop-takeover-state-legislatures-jack-fowlerThis gives the GOP the opportunity to provide more favorable districts for all the new Congress critters coming to town next January and squeeze out surviving Dem incumbents in Blue States losing districts to the Red States.

  132. shrinkers says:

    @filistroThey’ll be in big trouble if they mistake this for a mandate. The Republicans always claim a mandate, even when, as in 2000, their candidate gets less actual votes than the other guy.

  133. shrinkers says:

    @filistroChuck Todd points out if the GOP wins 70 seats (what he sees as their ceiling) they will still have a smaller majority than the Dems have right now. You have a gift for underlining important points. The Republicans would need to flip 78 seats to have a majority the same size as what the Dems have now. They aren’t going to come close to that. The result of this “wave” will look more like a ripple.

  134. Realist says:

    @Bart,I note the excitement with which you look forward to redistricting. You wouldn’t be looking forward to it in the hopes of having Republicans be in a position to ignore the will of the popular vote, would you? Because, after all, you know full well that’s what gerrymandering is all about.

  135. shortchain says:

    Yup, the GOP is poised to gerrymander the hell out of a lot of states. And, strangely enough, they are totally uncaring about whether this really is in the public’s interest or whether, if the tables were turned, they would scream like pigs with their tails in a wringer.And I’m willing to bet quite a fair amount that there will be no outcry or even coverage from the press on this blatant — and antidemocratic (not merely anti-Democratic) — abuse of power.

  136. DC Petterson says:

    CBS News hired the same statistical form that produced the best estimate of attendance at the Beck rally (87,000) and had them estimate Stewart’s rally. Their estimate was 215,000, dwarfing Beck.What I think matters more than the actual count, however, is the message. America is very tired of over-the-top rhetoric and fearmongering. We need to have a civil political conversation. The Citizens United ruling may have been the last straw; the volume and number of negative ads has been growing over the years, and the flood of money — much if it foreign — has been mostly going into senseless attacks.This may be the turning point, wherein the candidate with the most vicious attack ads discovers that going negative becomes a liability. Wouldn’t that be something?

  137. dr_funguy says:

    Shrubs new book:I Screwed You All: but thanks for blaming it on the black guy

  138. filistro says:

    This gives the GOP the opportunity to provide more favorable districts for all the new Congress critters coming to town next January and squeeze out surviving Dem incumbents in Blue States losing districts to the Red States.And once again, Bart points out that the only way Republicans can win elections anymore is by fiddling, trickery and gerrymandering.Seriously… I think it’s the Native American part of my DNA that allows me to take a much longer view of things. I see this election as a bump in the road… but the road is still veering steadily left. America is moving from rugged individualism toward a world that recognizes the value of sharing, compassion and collective effort… because that is the default trajectory of all mankind.As chidlren grow, they progress from relentless self-absorption to a world view. Their universe expands from ME to “me and mine” amd eventually, to “me, us and you”… and if growth is complete, ultimately to “me, us, you, and everybody else.”A country cannot survive if it is not united and committed to the welfare of all. The United States will either move toward united action, or it will fail and be absorbed by more collectivist countries. Those are the only options… and I don’t expect America to fail. I expect it to evolve, and from the perspective of a person who is a citizen of one country and a resident of two (and whose family has lived in both for… oh, about 30,000 years :-)… I already see it happening.

  139. Bart DePalma says:

    CNN released its final congressional generic poll today, finding that the GOP enjoys a 10% lead, the largest in that poll’s history and 3 points higher than when the GOP won 52 seats in 1994. There are two items of special note: (1) The Indis are breaking a bit over 3:2 for the GOP as they did in the earlier GOP special election wins in VA, NJ and MA in 2009/2010 and (2) the GOP enjoys about 60% support and at least a 20% lead in the suburbs where the swing districts are located:”According to the poll, 52 percent of likely voters say they will vote for the generic Republican in their congressional district, with 42 percent saying they will vote for the generic Democrat, four percent saying neither and two percent undecided. The GOP’s 10-point lead is up from a seven-point advantage in a CNN poll conducted in early October.The overwhelming majority of Democrats questioned in the survey say they’ll vote for the Democrat in their district, with the overwhelming majority of Republicans saying they’ll cast a ballot for the GOP candidate. Fifty-five percent of independents say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate, with 32 percent saying they’ll cast a ballot for the Democrat. The support of independent voters was a crucial factor in the strong showing by Democrats in the 2006 and 2008 elections.”Six in ten suburban voters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate for the U.S. House on Tuesday,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “That’s not good news for the Democrats since most of the seats in play are in suburban districts.””

  140. dr_funguy says:

    Finally a quantitative standard (we know that Bart will accept any outcome as confirming his “wave election” meme) for “tsunami election”, from Nate this A.M.:”the tsunami possibility: … Republicans would … gain … 60 seats or more [in the house]”

  141. shrinkers says:

    @BartCNN released its final congressional generic poll today, finding that the GOP enjoys a 10% lead,I forget — in which districts are generic candidates running?

  142. shortchain says:

    For the record:Bart @ 10:28, at 6:47 AM: “The only before election polling that matters is the ones that ask specific questions on defined policies.”Apparently that’s only true for polls that don’t show Bart something he likes.

  143. Scott says:

    Re; Gerrymandering of districts, etc. (Sorry on my blackberry, too much work to copy/paste)As they say – and I know “they” say a lot – all politics is local. And isn’t that the biggest loss of the past decade or so? We’ve become so obsessed with our national memes, our uber-celebrity politicians (and, yes, my elected President falls into this category as well), that we’ve lost sight of the politics of day-to-day LIFE. Grassroots democracy doesn’t mean lots of people voting for President or Senator like we’ve been led to believe. It means taking control of your local government and making sure it works for YOU. Where did we lose that?

  144. Bart DePalma says:

    The Washington Post released its final congressional generic poll today, finding that the GOP enjoys a 4% lead (49% to 45%). The Washington Post heavily overweights the number of Dem respondents in their polling, but it does provide a useful comparison back to 1994 that many polls do not. In 1994, the WP actually had the Dems leading by 2% (46% to 44%). Thus, the GOP is doing 6% better in 2010 than it did in 1994 when it won 52 seats.Items of special note:”[1]Fully 21 percent of all likely voters in the poll say they have already voted. While polls showed early voters breaking for Democratic House candidates in 2006 and for Obama by a big margin in 2008, now early voters split 47 percent for their Republican congressional candidate to 43 percent for their Democratic candidate…[2]While 70 percent of liberal Democrats say a Republican Congress would be a negative, just 43 percent of moderate or conservative Democrats agree. In fact, a majority of moderate and conservative Democrats say GOP control would either be a good thing (13 percent) or wouldn’t make any difference (42 percent).On the other side, more than three quarters of all Republicans, 76 percent, say it would be a “good thing” if their party took back control of Congress.Among voters who are likely to sit out Tuesday’s election, 52 percent say a GOP takeover would make no difference…[3][S]o far, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they have been contacted in person, by telephone or by e-mail by someone asking for their vote (38 to 31 percent)…[4] Independent and other voters not affiliated with major parties went for Democratic House candidates by a historic 18-point margin in 2006, but those now likely to vote break for the GOP by nine points. Women, who have sided with Democrats by an average of nine points in congressional elections back to the 1970s, now divide straight down the middle. White Catholic likely voters, another important swing group, go for Republican congressional candidates by a 55 to 38 percent margin, which would be the GOP’s best showing among these voters since 1994…”http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/31/AR2010103100407.html?hpid=topnews

  145. Bart DePalma says:

    BD: “The only before election polling that matters is the ones that ask specific questions on defined policies.”shortchain: “Apparently that’s only true for polls that don’t show Bart something he likes.”My comment above had to do with mandates for policies. The polls I am posting today are the final congressional generics I am noting for horserace purposes.They are looking substantially better than 1994 no matter how they try to slant the poll like the WP so far. I can hardly wait to see Gallup and Ras.

  146. Bart DePalma says:

    Fox News released its final congressional generic poll a couple days ago, finding that the GOP enjoys a 13% lead (50% to 37%). The Fox News poll does not have any 1994 comparisons, but appears to be in line with the last Gallup likely voter polling showing a 14% GOP lead.Items of special note:”[1]Independents favor the Republican candidate in their district by 41 percent to 27 percent…[2]Men back the Republican candidate by a wide 30 percentage point margin. Among women, the vote splits more evenly: 45 percent back the Democrat and 42 percent the Republican…[3]While 76 percent of those who backed Obama in 2008 are voting for the Democratic House candidate, some 13 percent are defecting to the Republican. More of Republican Presidential nominee John McCain’s voters — 88 percent — are sticking with the Republican this year.”http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/29/fox-news-poll-dissatisfied-washington-1566102765/

  147. shiloh says:

    Again, isn’t it nice “we” let whining, winger troll Bartles dominate this thread as he is like a little kid hoping for his G.I. Joe just before Christmas! :)Bartles, do you have a permanent hard-on? ~ Rhetorical question.Maureen Dowd lol>Again, as Nicolle Wallace, former communication chief for Bush, pointed out on Real Time w/Bill Maher, Obama’s approval ratings will go up 15 pts. in the first (6) months if Reps take over the House …It’s a catch-22 for Bart’s teabagger’s, eh.The yin and yang of politics.>Obviously Bart doesn’t have a clue how presidential politics works!btw, who’s gonna run against Obama, Dennis Kucinich? ;)take care, blessings Bartles as he hyperventilates to the nth degree before Tuesday’s election, as per usual.And one never answered my question re: how long you were in the fetal position after Obama’s election in 2008.solo estoy diciendoAlso, did your mom get you that G.I. Joe lolToo funny!

  148. Alki says:

    Atmospherics are terrible for Reid, but he will hold onBy Jon Ralston Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010 Harry Reid or Sharron Angle is dead, last in an occasional series:It just feels as if Reid is going to lose.Forget the enthusiasm gap — that word is too mild. There is a passion gap in this race that is palpable. You don’t find many people shivering with excitement to vote for Reid. But the feverish animation of voters hot to oust Reid is unlike anything I have experienced in nearly 25 years of covering politics. And it seems to have been building since January, evidenced by Reid’s inability to move his highly elevated disapproval rating.It just feels as if he is going to lose.But I don’t think he will. Why?First, let me be clear on this tradition of predictions. It is not a wish list but a walking out on a limb, so I can either crow afterward or eat same. I base them on data I am privy to and my gut. I have had much success in the past — look it up. But if ever there were a year for my lifetime batting average to take a hit, this is the one.So take this for what it’s worth:Harry Reid is the most resilient figure in Nevada political history. He should not even be here. He lost a U.S. Senate race in 1974, embarrassed himself in a mayoral race in 1975 and should have lost his re-election bid in 1998. But he found a way to win 12 years ago, and he will again Tuesday.How? Let me count the ways:Considering they were dealing with a moribund politician, and one who was sure to make their job more difficult during the year with his spontaneous effusions, Reid’s handlers have run one of the most spectacular campaigns in history at all levels: The turnout machine is formidable. The TV has been pitch perfect. The strategy — to peel moderate Republicans and independents who might not like their guy away from Angle — has worked.And, perhaps equally important, Republicans managed to nominate the one person this year who could lose to Reid.Angle is a natural retail campaigner in small political subdivisions. But that’s not what a Senate race is about. And her campaign never could find a comfortable way to reconcile her past, controversial statements — they tried massage, change and deny — and she made plenty more during the campaign (Sharia law here, Canada’s terrorist conduit, Latinos-in-ads amnesia).In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win — she had a double-digit lead in June polls — were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election — under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on.http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/oct/31/atmospherics-are-terrible

  149. shiloh says:

    Again, isn’t it nice “we” let whining, winger troll Bartles dominate this thread as he is like a little kid hoping for his G.I. Joe just before Christmas! :)Bartles, do you have a permanent hard-on? ~ Rhetorical question.Maureen Dowd lol>Again, as Nicolle Wallace, former communication chief for Bush, pointed out on Real Time w/Bill Maher, Obama’s approval ratings will go up 15 pts. in the first (6) months if Reps take over the House …It’s a catch-22 for Bart’s teabagger’s, eh.The yin and yang of politics.>Obviously Bart doesn’t have a clue how presidential politics works!btw, who’s gonna run against Obama, Dennis Kucinich? ;)And one never answered my question re: how long you were in the fetal position after Obama’s election in 2008.solo estoy diciendoAlso, did your mom get you that G.I. Joe lolToo funny!take care, blessings Bartles as he hyperventilates to the nth degree before Tuesday’s election, as per usual.

  150. Jeff says:

    @filistro,What the dem’s have done by focusing on the tea party is give them instant credibility. look for the house to pass a balanced budget ib March, defunding a lot o obama=nonsense.sorry to have been absent the lastweek , but i’m writing thids from a rehab hospuital — stroke last Tb uesday, but I should be fine The drs said bi danger of my becoming a emocrat (ion other words no mental damage)

  151. Alki says:

    @ Bart……..”Apparently, Dowd’s disillusionment shared by almost half of Dem voters, who in a recent poll want a 2012 primary challenge to Obama.”**********************************************************************************Oh please…….look at the AP poll that’s making the claim. They make no sense and don’t compute. The AP went rogue a long time ago with Fournier at the helm of the DC office. With ABC hiring Breitbart, the media is showing its true conservative colors. Trust. Obama will be at the top of the ticket come 2012. He is the people’s president. He will wipe the floor with Palin or whomever else you bozos put up. And that’s because Rs can’t drive nor can they govern.Obama, Obama, Obama……….

  152. filistro says:

    Jeff, welcome back and warmest hugs and best wishes. Your post puts it all in proportion, doesn’t it?We care for you a lot and have missed you greatly. Who knows… a little jolt to the brain might just be enough to realign those synapses properly… and slant them leftward. Just kidding… :-)Funny… you’ve been on my mind quite a lot lately, and I’ve felt some considerable worry about you. So glad to hear you’re on the mend.

  153. Alki says:

    How big is Dowd’s audience? Ten people. Please Bart………you are getting desperate in your efforts to bring down the president. You need to pay attention to what Cook is saying. Its the economy, stupid!….not some great mandate for the GOP. In fact, the GOP brand is more damaged now than it was in 2008, and continues to go downhill. How do I know? In 2008, Palin was the exception. Now she is becoming the rule. Enough said.

  154. shortchain says:

    Bart,I tend to agree on the proposition that generic polling on issues is relatively worthless compared with polling on individual issues. What I don’t understand is how that is any different than generic polling on party preferences compared with polling on individual candidates. Perhaps you can explain why we should believe one but not the other.

  155. shortchain says:

    Jeff,Get well fast. Things are going to get hairy no matter what happens on Tuesday, I suspect, and we’re going to have a lot of material to chew up.

  156. shiloh says:

    hmm, let’s try to be clever by half as my post got sucked up in the time/warp continuum.>Again, isn’t it nice “we” let whining, winger troll Bartles dominate this thread as he is like a little kid hoping for his G.I. Joe just before Christmas! :)Bartles, do you have a permanent hard-on? ~ Rhetorical question.Maureen Dowd lol>Again, as Nicolle Wallace, former communication chief for Bush, pointed out on Real Time w/Bill Maher, Obama’s approval ratings will go up 15 pts. in the first (6) months if Reps take over the House …It’s a catch-22 for Bart’s teabagger’s, eh.The yin and yang of politics.

  157. shiloh says:

    Part 2:Obviously Bart doesn’t have a clue how presidential politics works!btw, who’s gonna run against Obama, Dennis Kucinich? ;)And one never answered my question re: how long you were in the fetal position after Obama’s election in 2008.solo estoy diciendoAlso, did your mom get you that G.I. Joe lolToo funny!take care, blessings Bartles as he hyperventilates to the nth degree before Tuesday’s election, as per usual.

  158. Alki says:

    And we have this from Alaska:“The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that McAdams comes in second on Election Day, trailing “write-in candidate.” Those write-in votes won’t be counted unless there are more write-in votes than there are votes for any candidate on the ballot. Once the write-in votes are counted, however, some of them will inevitably be disqualified (illegible writing, wrong name, etc.). And a small number will be for candidates other than Murkowski. If enough are tossed out, second place McAdams would be the winner.”http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/10/republicans-counting-on-write-in-lisa-murkowski-over-joe-miller-in-alaska.html

  159. Alki says:

    Bart, I can’t believe you wasted all this bandwidth posting generic polls. Clearly, those polls are off……early voting has gone very well for the Dems. There maybe an enthusiasm gap but if early voting is an indication, its not as big asa these generic polls suggest.

  160. shiloh says:

    shortchainJeff,Get well fast.~~~~~hmm, is this the same shortchain who said to Jeffrey:Read your comments over. Not a single thing in them except assertions that we are expected, in your mind, to accept as self-evident. Repeatedly, we have pointed out that you have no evidence or are factually wrong. At which points you simply move on to another assertion.Which makes it pointless to even read your comments, let alone respond to them.Damn, liberals really do have empathy! 😉

  161. shortchain says:

    Shiloh,What can I say? Jeff has grown on me. And yes, empathy has always been a problem for me. It’s why I couldn’t join a high-paying profession such as doctor, lawyer, or plumber.

  162. shiloh says:

    Hey, I still reply to Bartles lol as liberals empathy is overflowing! :)It always works out best if one doesn’t hold a grudge and after replying to Bartles ad nauseam I know he doesn’t hold a grudge lol as he keeps going and going and going …god love him!

  163. shrinkers says:

    @AlkiIn fact, the GOP brand is more damaged now than it was in 2008,Yes. And however much the public may not like the Democrats, they like the Republicans less.Bart’s just a professional straw-grasper.

  164. shrinkers says:

    he keeps going and going and going …The Energizer Bunny of right-wing trollery!

  165. Alki says:

    I think Palin’s 15 minutes are just about up.VIDEO: Palin Calls Alaska’s Local Media ‘Corrupt Bastards’ http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/10/31/video-palin-calls-alaskas-local-media-corrupt-bastards-0

  166. Alki says:

    @ shrinkers…….What I love is that the Rs are taking this election as a mandate. That means they will be overstepping left and right. By the 2012 election, they should be ready to move down to the next level on the way to their bottom.

  167. GROG says:

    @Alki and shrinkers,In fact, the GOP brand is more damaged now than it was in 2008Nope. “Obama Coalition Is Fraying, Poll Finds”http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/us/politics/28poll.html “the Republicans’ favorability rating in the New York Times/CBS poll is at its highest level since September 2006.”Do you guys ever tire of being wrong?

  168. Scott says:

    You all are CLEARLY missing the biggest question of all tonight. Who is going out trick-or-treating? :)I’ll be taking my little Minnie Mouse around the neighborhood!

  169. Alki says:

    “Already, there are shades of Clinton’s rhetoric in Obama’s phrases on the campaign trail. Two days after his defeat in 1994, Clinton said he would work with Republicans but block them from doing anything that would “take us back to the policies that failed us before.” Sixteen years later, the line seems still in vogue. “We don’t want to relive the past,” Obama said Saturday in Chicago, on a campaign swing aimed at shoring up his party’s prospects. “We’re not going back.”” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/30/AR2010103004388.html

  170. Alki says:

    @ Grog……The Obama coalition may be fraying but it ain’t broken.And yes, the GOP brand is so damaged its pathetic. You lucked out this year. It won’t happen again in 2012. Guaranteed!

  171. shortchain says:

    GROG,Yes, the GOP has 41 percent favorable, versus 52 percent unfavorable, which is the best since 2006. Remind us again how that favorable rating in 2006 worked out for the GOP.Geez, I know that some Democrats have rose-colored glasses and interpret things in too sanguine a manner for the Democrats, but any party with that size a negative impression is not sitting pretty.And it’s got nowhere to go but down, because, in case anybody hasn’t figured it out yet, the GOP isn’t going to be able to do anything with the results of this election, and that inability isn’t exactly going to make the voters happy.The Democrats, meanwhile, have a 46 positive to 48 negative rating in the same poll.Oh, and BTW, these generic polls are pretty much worthless.

  172. filistro says:

    GROG… hey, you’d better not piss me off. I’m a liberal with THREE guns! :-)Scott… I have a witch and a princess arriving here in half an hour. It’s so cute… they stand on the doorstep wearing their costumes and wigs (and the little sneakers I bought for them last month) and yell, “Hey Grandma! GUESS WHO!!!” LOL…

  173. Jean says:

    Not only overstepping, Alki, I suspect that immediately following the election, the knife-fight-in-a-phone booth attempt to drag the Republican party and leadership further to the right will commence. The teaper redstate crowd plans to keep the heat turned up on their tea party senators and congressmen and women:”We should remind any of the establishment types that go off the reservation, that it was mainly conservative and Tea Party candidates that brought them the majority. If they want to do business as usual, then they should be told in no uncertain terms that many moderates (read RINO’s) were primaried out in achieving this majority, and the same can be done to them in the next election, whether they have leadership positions or not. If they don’t get the message, then follow through on the threat.”

  174. filistro says:

    Mark Blumenthal (at pollster.com) sees the GOP generic lead narrowing to 4 in the final hours.And… “a four-point Republican margin would suggest the Republicans winning control of the House but by narrower margins than the 50+ seat gains widely predicted in recent days. The statistical model of Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, presented at a recent conference of political scientists, shows that the difference between a tie on the generic congressional ballot and a ten-point Republican lead translates into a potential spread of Republican gains of between 40 and 57 seats (ignoring the margin of error for the model). If Republicans lead by 5 point in the generic ballot, the Abramowitz model predicts a 49-seat Republican gain.”

  175. filistro says:

    Okay, I want everybody’s predictions for Toomey/Sestak and Manchin/Raese.Man, what a couple of nail-biters!

  176. Scott says:

    Okay, I want everybody’s predictions for Toomey/Sestak and Manchin/Raese.Man, what a couple of nail-biters!Toomey by just outside the recount threshold… Philadelphia will make the difference, and they won’t quite deliver enough to hold the seat.Manchin will win by ~4 points – a 52-48 margin or so.I’m actually most interested in the Wisconsin race – I feel like Russ Feingold has a 2 minute offense left in him that’s going to make that one go until the last few ballots are counted.

  177. filistro says:

    I think Sestak will go to recount, and Manchin will win decisively… 5 to 7 points.

  178. filistro says:

    I’m actually most interested in the Wisconsin race – I feel like Russ Feingold has a 2 minute offense left in him that’s going to make that one go until the last few ballots are counted.Really? I’d actually given up on Feingold. That’s interesting…

  179. Scott says:

    Really? I’d actually given up on Feingold. That’s interesting…Keep in mind that there is absolutely no fact or anecdotal evidence to back this up. It’s really just a gut feeling. I have just as much reason to believe this as I do to believe that Charlie Crist is going to make a late surge (which I don’t); it’s just a gut feeling.

  180. Jack says:

    I’ll go with Manchin (+5), Toomey (+4), and (not that you asked) Rossi (+.5 before a recount) and Murray (+.5 after the recount)

  181. Mr. Universe says:

    New articles

  182. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain wrote: “I tend to agree on the proposition that generic polling on issues is relatively worthless compared with polling on individual issues. What I don’t understand is how that is any different than generic polling on party preferences compared with polling on individual candidates. Perhaps you can explain why we should believe one but not the other.”If you are looking for a mandate on a particular issue, you cannot look for support from generic polling on which party do you trust more on the category of issues.Similarly, if you are looking for a clue on who is going to win CO-7, the national congressional generic is next to useless.However, a reliable congressional generic (say the last Gallup traditional LV poll) will give you a good range (say Abromiwitz’ +/- 5 seats) of the overall House result.More generally, a comparison of past and present congressional generics of the same poll can give you a basic idea of whether the current election will more or less favorable for your party than the prior election.The generics I posted above serve the last purpose.When Gallup comes out with their final, I am going to plug it in the Abramowitz model for a finer tuned idea of what the election will look like.

  183. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain:I do not have a problem with House individual race polls where you can get them. That is why I posted the NPR polling of 60 then 90 Dem House seats polled by name. It would be nice if we could get a last one this weekend.

  184. Monotreme says:

    Jeff,Please get well soon. I had noticed your absence and was worried about you.Let me know if you need anything. You have my email.

  185. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “Okay, I want everybody’s predictions for Toomey/Sestak and Manchin/Raese. Man, what a couple of nail-biters!”Nailbiters?Toomey is leading every poll and at or above 50% in half of them.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_sestak_vs_toomey-1059.htmlThe early voting is heavily going GOP.http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/15084Toomey will win by around 4-5 points.WV is a different critter. Manchin is a very popular governor who is literally shooting at Obama’s agenda. Manchin would appear to have the edge here. We’ll see if WV voters in true Charlie Brown form actually buy the myth of a conservative Dem one more time.

  186. shortchain says:

    Bart,You say “However, a reliable congressional generic (say the last Gallup traditional LV poll) will give you a good range (say Abromiwitz’ +/- 5 seats) of the overall House result.”This will not be demonstrable until after the election. Until then, it represents wishful thinking.

  187. mclever says:

    Jeff,You were definitely missed! I’d begun to worry, and I’m sorry to learn that there was reason for my concern.Wishing you a speedy recovery!:-)

  188. shrinkers says:

    Jeff,I missed your post this morning. I’m sorry to hear of your medical problems. Here’s hoping for a complete and speedy recovery. Welcome back to the fray 🙂

  189. Alki says:

    Sestak by 1…may require recount if PA allows it;Manchin by 6

  190. Alki says:

    @ Scott……….I share your feeling. My gut tells me Feingold will pull it out in the end too.

  191. Alki says:

    And Murray will win without a recount.

  192. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain wrote: “Bart, You say “However, a reliable congressional generic (say the last Gallup traditional LV poll) will give you a good range (say Abromiwitz’ +/- 5 seats) of the overall House result. This will not be demonstrable until after the election. Until then, it represents wishful thinking.”Gallup and Abromowitz have a very nice track record, which is why I am using them. However, we are literally in new territory this year in the Gallup and other LV polling setting new records for GOP leads. When the GOP gets this far out in front do they hit diminishing returns because they run out of competitive seats or can they reach unexpected districts because the incumbent Dems do not even realize they are in trouble?Tuesday will tell.

  193. shiloh says:

    Bartles, Bartles, BartlesWe’ll see if WV voters in true Charlie Brown form actually buy the myth of a conservative Dem one more time.hmm, after (8) years of cheney/bush we’ll see if voters in true Charlie Brown form actually buy the myth of a conservative Rep one more time, eh 😉 er was it compassionate conservative or some such nonsense.Bart, a Charlie Brown (((hyperbolic))), winger reference as surely you can do better.Or not …btw, did your mom get you that G.I. Joe.just wonderin’take care

  194. Eusebio Dunkle says:

    @Jean,I will vote for Ellison because he’s publicly stood against BHO and that means a lot to me. And quite frankly I am comforted by my numerous conversations with his staff.The logic of my choice is that I refuse to vote for people I do not support. Shocking, but I’m not voting for Dayton as the lesser of two evils, especially when there are several other candidates. Emmer is crazy. If MN votes in Tom Emmer then we deserve him and I will simply vote with my feet when the time comes in 13 mo. I will vote for Ken Pentel, the same guy I’ve voted for since forever because I like his platform. That’s my logic.

  195. Mainer says:

    Get well Jeff. Each day will be better than the last. Look forward to your comments being here.

  196. Jean says:

    Eusebio Dunkle,I understand your logic, I myself think Tom Horner would make a good governor, even though I am not in favor of taxing groceries and clothing in MN. A lot of Canadians and foreigners come to the MOA and spend money because clothing is not currently taxed and is low-priced, especially compared to Canada.But the reality is that Tom Horner is no Jesse Ventura, and in dire times like these, we cannot afford to potentially waste a vote on a third-party candidate who is unlikely to win, but in other years would be worth voting for if no other reason than being sick and tired of the partisan fighting, so vote for the entertainment value (see Jesse Ventura).

  197. Bart DePalma says:

    shiloh wrote: “hmm, after (8) years of cheney/bush we’ll see if voters in true Charlie Brown form actually buy the myth of a conservative Rep one more time, eh er was it compassionate conservative or some such nonsense.”Or another Bush? (which is too bad for Jeb as he was a superb governor). Point taken.This is why the GOP’s approval ratings are still in the dog house, the Tea Party is voting out candidates that had anything to do with TARP and every newly elected Elephant will be on probation.While I will spend the week celebrating the election, after that its time for the Tea Party to get to work on the GOP to ensure it keeps its promises. If not, the August 2009 Dem town hall meetings may seem tame to the reception GOP Reps will get when they come home August 2011.

  198. filistro says:

    @Bart.. While I will spend the week celebrating the election, after that its time for the Tea Party to get to work on the GOP to ensure it keeps its promisesWhat (in descending order of priority) are the four or five things you most want your Tea Party reps to accomplish in the next legislative session?

  199. Bart DePalma says:

    filistro wrote: “What (in descending order of priority) are the four or five things you most want your Tea Party reps to accomplish in the next legislative session?”1) Enact the Pledge legislation requiring congressional enactment of all regulations costing the economy more than $100 million. Do whatever you need to do to get it passed because Obama will attempt to do another end around the voters and their elected representatives in secret through regulations.2) Repeal what they can of Obamacare, defund the rest without exception.3) Use the subpoena to make public NASA and EPA’s documents, models and correspondence on climate change and to haul EPA and NASA officials in front of committees under oath to justify their positions on both climate science and any proposed regulations. Defund all attempts by EPA to regulate CO2.4) Set a series of benchmarks to balance the budget over four years. Refuse to increase the debt limit beyond those benchmarks. Then compromise about what is to be cut in a very open and bipartisan manner in stark contrast to the past four years.5) Offer to work with the President on entitlement reform with one requirement – no new taxes.

  200. Bart DePalma says:

    I saved the best poll for last…Gallup released its final congressional generic poll this evening, finding that the GOP enjoys an historic 15% lead among likely voters (55% to 40%). By multiples, this is the highest GOP lead in a final Gallup congressional generic in the 70 year history of the polling organization.This is important because Gallup’s final congressional generic has been the gold standard for predicting the outcome of congressional elections.Items of special note from the Gallup commentary:”Republicans’ 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP’s margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup’s final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters — an 11-point gain…[Note: As a point of comparison, the voters granted the GOP a majority of 229 seats in 2002 when the GOP lead was 6% instead of today’s 15]Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.”That about says it all.http://www.gallup.com/poll/144125/Republicans-Appear-Poised-Win-Big-Tuesday.aspx

  201. Jeff says:

    filistro wrote:From Mark Blumenthal… some further reasons that pollsters just might be getting it all wrong in the House races:HOPing not to see the demacolypse?Glood waening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  202. shiloh says:

    @BartPoint taken.~~~~~Let the record show I received a Point Taken from Bart as my life is now complete 😉 and will be retiring from political discussion altogether!>>>99.9% of 538’s viewers cheer! :)>>>Before I go let me do my best Bart imitation by posting a poll lol.PPP: Kasich ~ 49/Strickland ~ 48.Again, in OH as nationwide Dems are getting (((relentlessly bombarded!!!))) w/24/7 negative ads funded by $$$ from special interest billionaires and yet schmuck Kasich can’t close the deal.So if Kasich wins, where should I relocate 😉 Seychelles Islands, Scandinavia, Australia ? B)>Bill Walton tells the story in a tv biography of himself re: John Wooden not being happy about his liberal protesting against Nixon and the Vietnam War at UCLA and Coach Wooden suggested Walton should instead write Nixon a letter if he felt so strongly ~ Sooo Walton wrote Nixon a letter saying Nixon should resign for the good of the country yada, yada, yada 😉 and …a couple mos. later Nixon resigned in disgrace! 🙂 And Walton mentioned, once again, Coach Wooden was correct er a frickin’ genius lol.carry on

  203. shiloh says:

    btw Bart, Reagan is still dead!#200

  204. DC Petterson says:

    @Bartthe August 2009 Dem town hall meetings may seem tame to the reception GOP Reps will get when they come home August 2011.And therein are revealed the roots of my fantasy best-case.

  205. filistro says:

    LOL… once again, DC… we had EXACTLY THE SAME THOUGHT!!Good times await. It will be entertaining to watch the death throes of this ugly beast, won’t it?

  206. Bart DePalma says:

    BD: “…the August 2009 Dem town hall meetings may seem tame to the reception GOP Reps will get when they come home August 2011.”DC Petterson wrote: “And therein are revealed the roots of my fantasy best-case.”Be careful what you wish for. A GOP disciplined by the people to follow the people’s will is the last thing the minority left wants. You would be far better served by another corrupt RINO party that you could successfully run against as in 2006 and 2008.

  207. DC Petterson says:

    @BartBe careful what you wish for. A GOP disciplined by the people to follow the people’s will is the last thing the minority left wants. It truly is obscene to listen to a right-winger talking about “the will of the people” as if1) “the people” was a monolithic entity with one will, and 2) the right wing did not go out of its way to thwart, pervert, misconstrue, and obstruct the will of the majority, as evidence by the elections of November 2008.Your rhetoric is meaningless, Bart.I hope to write up my science-fiction fantasy for tomorrow’s election, and get it posted this evening. Do remember, I’m a novelist. I happen to like anti-utopian stories.

  208. Mainer says:

    Bart, I am part of the people too. My family has been here forever and fought in every armed engament we have had other than a couple of Western Indian dust ups and your will is not my will. So we only count the will of the people if it aligns with your will??????Stand by and watch Bart. This country you once swore to protect is about to be torn asunder by you and yours…..so did you have your fingers crossed way back when?

  209. Monotreme says:

    fili, I tried to post a link to our liveblog up at the genuine 538.We’ll see how far it gets.

  210. filistro says:

    Treme, I did too… it was junked. Seems odd, really, as their comment management has gotten even worse in recent days. It’s like they’re doing their best to discourage comments.I wish we could somehow get a shout-out to Sacto Joe, Dan 10 Things and a few of the others. I KNOW they haven’t found us… Dan occasionally asks plaintively if anybody knows the URL to the chat site… but of course it’s impossible to get a post up that will tell him. Anyhow, thanks for trying. Maybe you’ll do better. I think they’re onto me 😉

  211. Monotreme says:

    Nope. My comment with the link to the blog went “poof”.Maybe Muley is the NYT moderator.

  212. Realist says:

    I made one oblique shot at it. We’ll see if it makes in through in the morning or not. *fingers crossed*

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