21:18 Mr. Universe. He’s beaaaaack!
In addition, it appears that Measure 63 (the “anti-Obamacare” initiative) is losing
20:47 DC: David Frumm just said that if Sarah Palin is the nominee in 2012, there will be tread marks all over his face.
20:24 DC: A really bright point — Keith Ellison is winning convincingly in Minnesota. The House’s first Muslim, elected in a heavily Jewish district. We don’t need that fear crap in Minnesota.
20:17 Michael: In an incredible shock to all of us, WA7 is going to the Republican candidate.
20:16 Michael: The battle over Speaker of the House will be interesting to watch. I don’t expect Tea Party Representatives to be in favor of Boehner.
20:09 DC: Comedy Central projects the Republicans will take 692 seats in the House.
20:06 Michael: We’re now down to just vote counting, outside of Alaska.
20:03 Michael: Republicans have been slightly outperforming Nate’s model in the House, while Democrats have been slighly outperforming his model in the Senate.
20:03 Michael: Pennsylvania Senate looks like it may go to a recount.
19:55 DC: Tomorrow, we’ll be asking people what they thought of the live blog. Please start thinking about your reactions.
19:42 Michael: 6 Senate seats left in play. Republicans need to win all of them to control the Senate.
19:41 Michael: Illinois Senate is looking favorable to Giannoulias, 48/46 with 71% reporting. Nate had Kirk expected to lead by 1.
19:38 Michael: KY6 is at this point pretty likely to go to a recount. 0.2% separates the two candidates, with 99% of precincts reporting.
19:38 Monotreme: going to a party now. 3/155 precincts in and my friend is getting beat 3K to 5K.so it may be a brief one.
19:37 Monotreme: PA-SEN 86% in now dead even
19:27 Monotreme: I’m liking this PA-SEN result: 81% reporting, Sestak 51% v Toomey 49%
19:25 DC: Eric Cantor and Michele Bachmann refuse to talk about raising the debt ceiling. Will the United States default on our national debt? Or will the Republicans agree that we MUST go deeper into debt? What do you think?
19:23 Monotreme: Yes. If Maes gets less than 10% in CO-GOV, then the Republicans have to share the bottom of the ballot with the Greens and the Batshit Crazy Party.
19:31 Michael: Nate predicted Pennsylvania Senate to go 48/52 Toomey. The fact that it’s currently reversed is heartening, at least for the Senate.
Not only has Hickenlooper been called as the winner, but it looks like next time we won’t have a Republican on the ballot to kick around.
19:21 Monotreme: Illinois 58% reporting: 49% Giannoulis, 45% Kirk
Still, you’d rather be 4 ahead than 4 behind at this point. Both will be tight.
Pennsylvania Senate: Now 69% reporting, Sestak 51%, Toomey 49%
This is tightening A LOT.
19:10 Monotreme: More returns from PA-SEN and IL-SEN, each Democrat has slipped by 1%.
19:05 Monotreme: I am definitely inviting BOTH Bart DePalma and Alan Grayson to my next dinner party.
19:02 Monotreme: Senate tossups
Illinois with 51% reporting (still early): Giannoulis 50%, Kirk 44%
Colorado still to sparse to report.
18:46 Monotreme: The other thing I’m seeing is a regional skew to the early House results. For example, all the Florida tossup House races (FL-22, FL-25) and narrow R win races (2, 8, 24) are going R. On the other hand, North Carolina’s three “Narrow D” House races are going strongly D in early returns; and the tossup (NC-8) is 52D-45R in early returns.
18:41 Monotreme: I’m looking at the New York Times’ Senate Big Board (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house/big-board). Of the tossup races (Colo, Ill, Nev, Pa, Wash), the three with minimal returns are all leaning toward the Democrats.
18:38 Michael: IN2 has been called for Donnelly. This was an important one for the D column to win.
18:28 Michael: The votes are now trending just as slightly to the right of Nate’s predictions. We’re talking about 0.04 of a point.
18:19 Michael: Interestingly, the votes are trending slighly left of Nate’s predictions, even though the winners are leaning slightly right of them. We’re talking about less than a half percent in both cases.
18:04 DC: MSNBC says 237R-198D in the House with a +/- of about 13 seats.
18:02 DC: It’s looking fairly good for the Republicans in the House. Maybe 55 – 60 seats. Not that far from the expected projections. MSNBC has projected the House will go the the R’s, with a majority high of about 38 seats, a low in the 20’s.
17:44 Michael: IN2 has crossed the threshold. 48/47 Donnelly. Still too close to call. The margin is pretty close to Nate’s there.
17:41 Michael: On the other hand,with 87% reporting, VA7 was an 8 point shift to the left from Nate’s model.
17:40 Michael: VA9 is a big loss for the Democrats. 80% reporting, 46/52 Griffith. That’s a 5 point shift to the right. This was a key seat for Democrats to win.
17:30 Michael: Looks like 47D, 40R, 2I in the Senate for sure at this point. That means the Republicans will have to sweep the in-play races to get the Senate.
17:24 Michael: KY6 crossed the theshold. That’s the good news. The bad news is, Nate’s model is spot on with this seat. It’s a nail-biter.
17:22 DC: So far, Nate’s projections look pretty close. That’s not a surprise. It’s also not a disaster. Kind of expected.
17:05 Michael: Our first race to cross the 80% threshold is FL10. 34/66 Young. That’s a 5-point shift to the right from Nate’s model.
16:56 Fili: Nate reads the tea leaves, sees a sign that there “might not be an apocalypse for Democrats”… two vulnerable Dems holing onto their seats in KY. Nate: “Even though Rand Paul has won the Senate race in Kentucky, I’m not sure he didn’t hurt the G.O.P. at the margins down ballot.”
16:46 Michael: Now we have the following bellwether seats that we’re watching: GA2, IN2, IN9, KY6, VA2, VA9, VA11, OH6, OH16, OH18, WV1, AL2, CT4, CT5, FL22, FL25
16:48 Fili: From FOX and the Freepers:
16:43 Fili: Harold Fineman (MSNBC) on the Rand Paul win… “The Paul campaign is over-the-moon thankful to Mitch McConnell, a former rival, who worked hard behind the scenes in recent weeks to secure this victory. McConnell hopes Rand Paul will be his “ambassador” to the Tea Party. Paul has promised his voters an immediate repeal of HCR.”
16:43 Michael: I’m not going to say anything about any of the races until we hit 80% of precincts reporting. There’s too much random noise until then. But once we start getting to that level, I’ll begin reporting on any potential wave at that point.
16:40 DC: I’m taking over the posting into onto the liveblog. Let’s see if I can handle it. There aren’t many races called yet: results are either coming in slow, or we’re all impatient.
16:33 Fili: Forget “hurricane.” Forget “tsunami.” They’re both SO yesterday. The new GOP term is “asteroid strike.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-moran/a-case-for-the-asteroid-s_b_777929.html
Boehner told a joke that went something like this: “Remember when Ronald Reagan was President? We had Bob Hope and Johnny Cash. Now Barack Obama is President and we have neither Hope nor Cash.”
Roseanne took umbrage, and posted to her Twitter account:
“John Boehner: Stop using my dad’s name as a punchline, you asshat,”
A Google search for commentary led to Free Republic, where the commentary was mostly, “Her music sucks.”
14:40 Michael Weiss As we sit here awaiting the results of a long-awaited election, many questions remain, some of which will be answered tonight. Is there an enthusiasm gap this year, and will it affect the outcome of the election? Are people who ostensibly hate the Republicans more than the Democrats still going to vote for Republicans anyway? And if so, why?
Tonight we will be watching the results of Nate Silver’s key House seats. I compiled a spreadsheet to track the trends, looking at whether results lean more right or left than he had predicted, and propogating those results across to other key races further west. The idea here is that local effects will cancel each other out across the numerous House races, while national trends will remain. From what I read, I gather Nate’s team is doing much the same.
We have a great advantage at this site, however. You can comment, live, as the night progresses, just as we will. And we will read your comments, live, as the night progresses. Depending on how quickly things progress, we may even be able to respond. Since this is the first time we’ve done a live blog, I’m not sure how rapidly the landscape will change, and how fast we will have to move in order to keep up.
Since this is the pre-game show, let’s talk about the keys to the game, as it were.
For Democrats, the biggest key is turnout. High turnout elections have historically favored Democrats, and there’s little reason to believe this time is different in that regard.
For Republicans, the biggest key is the converting the generic ballot into the real ballot. It has been about 70 years since Republicans have had a generic ballot this far in their favor. Working counter to this, however, is a much more polarized electorate which has been gerrymandered to the point where relatively few seats are in play, compared to 70 years ago. For this reason, one should not expect comparable results. Nonetheless, it should be heartening to Republicans to see such a favorable margin in the generic.
In Newton and North Attleboro, the lines were forming before the polls opened and the flow has been steady all day. People we spoke to say they’re coming out to vote on tax issues.
The questions on the ballot were important to them. Some wanted to vote against the incumbent others felt it was important to stop the tide of opposition. Many say with all the hype and advertising they’ve seen- they simply couldn’t stay home.
14:18 Mr Universe: Well, here we go. Everybody strapped in? It should be an interesting race. We may not even get the full results until later this month. Alaska, Florida, Nevada and several other races promise to be nail-biters. Your 538Refugees will be here all day watching the news, polls, cartoons and whatever to bring you the latest. We’re glad you’re with us and we will be monitoring the comment section for goodies from you. Let’s do this.
ONEOF OUR MEMBERS VOTED TODAY AND NOTICED THAT HIS REPUBLICAN VOTES SWITCHED TO DEMOCRATE BEFORE HE SUBUMITTED HIS VOTE. LUCKY HE NOTICED IT, HE TRIED AGAIN 3 TIMES AND 3 TIMES THE VOTES SWITCHED TO DEMOCRAT.
HE TOLD THE POLL WORKERS, THEY TESTED THE OTHER MACHINES. 3 OF 5 SWITCHED VOTES TO DEMOCRAT.
EVERYONE THAT HAS NOT VOTED, PLEASE BE SURE YOUR VOTES DON’T SWITCH!!!!!
I’m counting on three things to get me through this night…
1.) a stack of fresh warm edamame for nervous nibbling
2.) a bottle of Bailey’s
3.) my mantra for the day:… “Blessed are those who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed.”
FWIW… Mike McDonald at Pollster.com cautions against reading too much into the old saw that an early result on the eastern seaboard can reveal anything significant about national election trends.
He reminds us that “All politics is local.” (Unless, of course, those early results are favorable to YOUR side.. in which case they are a totally reliable bellwether… )
Ed Rendell on MSNBC just said the African-American turnoutin Philly has been “phenomenal”… “amazing”… “a lot bigger than in 2006.”
Here’s a funny one! Andrew Breitbart says he’s on ABCelection-night panel… ABC begs to differ:
It’s a wild, ugly spectacle for ABC News,” Media Matters’s Eric Boehlert wrote.“And like I said, it’s not like we didn’t try to warn them: When you lay down with Breitbart, you’re gonna get fleas.”
15:03 Filistro By this time at Free Republic there are usually dozens of reports of “voter fraud”, illegal machines, etc. Nothing so far in “Breaking” or “Front-Page News.” Either the Freepers are so confident that for once they have stifled their notorious whining… or perhaps America has finally mastered this whole “voting” thing and learned to run a smooth election ?
16:21 Filistro live from Las Vegas, reporting to MSNBC…… says (who has notoriously avoided the press all through the campaign, and once called a press conference at which she refused to take questions) told a radio talk host today that “candidates need to teach the press a lesson,” and “we have to see a return to professionalism in journalism.” He also reports that in the campaign there is “a growing air of quiet confidence.”
In 1994, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. Since the economy is so very much worse now, this seems to mean Democrats are far more popular today than they were then. What do you think?
This is a real loss for the Democrats. But, considering the circumstances, far less than it should have been.