21:18 Mr. Universe. He’s beaaaaack!
In addition, it appears that Measure 63 (the “anti-Obamacare” initiative) is losing
20:47 DC: David Frumm just said that if Sarah Palin is the nominee in 2012, there will be tread marks all over his face.
20:24 DC: A really bright point — Keith Ellison is winning convincingly in Minnesota. The House’s first Muslim, elected in a heavily Jewish district. We don’t need that fear crap in Minnesota.
20:17 Michael: In an incredible shock to all of us, WA7 is going to the Republican candidate.
20:16 Michael: The battle over Speaker of the House will be interesting to watch. I don’t expect Tea Party Representatives to be in favor of Boehner.
20:09 DC: Comedy Central projects the Republicans will take 692 seats in the House.
20:06 Michael: We’re now down to just vote counting, outside of Alaska.
20:03 Michael: Republicans have been slightly outperforming Nate’s model in the House, while Democrats have been slighly outperforming his model in the Senate.
20:03 Michael: Pennsylvania Senate looks like it may go to a recount.
19:55 DC: Tomorrow, we’ll be asking people what they thought of the live blog. Please start thinking about your reactions.
19:42 Michael: 6 Senate seats left in play. Republicans need to win all of them to control the Senate.
19:41 Michael: Illinois Senate is looking favorable to Giannoulias, 48/46 with 71% reporting. Nate had Kirk expected to lead by 1.
19:38 Michael: KY6 is at this point pretty likely to go to a recount. 0.2% separates the two candidates, with 99% of precincts reporting.
19:38 Monotreme: going to a party now. 3/155 precincts in and my friend is getting beat 3K to 5K.so it may be a brief one.
19:37 Monotreme: PA-SEN 86% in now dead even
19:27 Monotreme: I’m liking this PA-SEN result: 81% reporting, Sestak 51% v Toomey 49%
19:25 DC: Eric Cantor and Michele Bachmann refuse to talk about raising the debt ceiling. Will the United States default on our national debt? Or will the Republicans agree that we MUST go deeper into debt? What do you think?
19:23 Monotreme: Yes. If Maes gets less than 10% in CO-GOV, then the Republicans have to share the bottom of the ballot with the Greens and the Batshit Crazy Party.
19:31 Michael: Nate predicted Pennsylvania Senate to go 48/52 Toomey. The fact that it’s currently reversed is heartening, at least for the Senate.
Not only has Hickenlooper been called as the winner, but it looks like next time we won’t have a Republican on the ballot to kick around.
19:21 Monotreme: Illinois 58% reporting: 49% Giannoulis, 45% Kirk
Still, you’d rather be 4 ahead than 4 behind at this point. Both will be tight.
Pennsylvania Senate: Now 69% reporting, Sestak 51%, Toomey 49%
This is tightening A LOT.
19:10 Monotreme: More returns from PA-SEN and IL-SEN, each Democrat has slipped by 1%.
19:05 Monotreme: I am definitely inviting BOTH Bart DePalma and Alan Grayson to my next dinner party.
19:02 Monotreme: Senate tossups
Illinois with 51% reporting (still early): Giannoulis 50%, Kirk 44%
Colorado still to sparse to report.
18:46 Monotreme: The other thing I’m seeing is a regional skew to the early House results. For example, all the Florida tossup House races (FL-22, FL-25) and narrow R win races (2, 8, 24) are going R. On the other hand, North Carolina’s three “Narrow D” House races are going strongly D in early returns; and the tossup (NC-8) is 52D-45R in early returns.
18:41 Monotreme: I’m looking at the New York Times’ Senate Big Board (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/results/house/big-board). Of the tossup races (Colo, Ill, Nev, Pa, Wash), the three with minimal returns are all leaning toward the Democrats.
18:38 Michael: IN2 has been called for Donnelly. This was an important one for the D column to win.
18:28 Michael: The votes are now trending just as slightly to the right of Nate’s predictions. We’re talking about 0.04 of a point.
18:19 Michael: Interestingly, the votes are trending slighly left of Nate’s predictions, even though the winners are leaning slightly right of them. We’re talking about less than a half percent in both cases.
18:04 DC: MSNBC says 237R-198D in the House with a +/- of about 13 seats.
18:02 DC: It’s looking fairly good for the Republicans in the House. Maybe 55 – 60 seats. Not that far from the expected projections. MSNBC has projected the House will go the the R’s, with a majority high of about 38 seats, a low in the 20’s.
17:44 Michael: IN2 has crossed the threshold. 48/47 Donnelly. Still too close to call. The margin is pretty close to Nate’s there.
17:41 Michael: On the other hand,with 87% reporting, VA7 was an 8 point shift to the left from Nate’s model.
17:40 Michael: VA9 is a big loss for the Democrats. 80% reporting, 46/52 Griffith. That’s a 5 point shift to the right. This was a key seat for Democrats to win.
17:30 Michael: Looks like 47D, 40R, 2I in the Senate for sure at this point. That means the Republicans will have to sweep the in-play races to get the Senate.
17:24 Michael: KY6 crossed the theshold. That’s the good news. The bad news is, Nate’s model is spot on with this seat. It’s a nail-biter.
17:22 DC: So far, Nate’s projections look pretty close. That’s not a surprise. It’s also not a disaster. Kind of expected.
17:05 Michael: Our first race to cross the 80% threshold is FL10. 34/66 Young. That’s a 5-point shift to the right from Nate’s model.
16:56 Fili: Nate reads the tea leaves, sees a sign that there “might not be an apocalypse for Democrats”… two vulnerable Dems holing onto their seats in KY. Nate: “Even though Rand Paul has won the Senate race in Kentucky, I’m not sure he didn’t hurt the G.O.P. at the margins down ballot.”
16:46 Michael: Now we have the following bellwether seats that we’re watching: GA2, IN2, IN9, KY6, VA2, VA9, VA11, OH6, OH16, OH18, WV1, AL2, CT4, CT5, FL22, FL25
16:48 Fili: From FOX and the Freepers:
16:43 Fili: Harold Fineman (MSNBC) on the Rand Paul win… “The Paul campaign is over-the-moon thankful to Mitch McConnell, a former rival, who worked hard behind the scenes in recent weeks to secure this victory. McConnell hopes Rand Paul will be his “ambassador” to the Tea Party. Paul has promised his voters an immediate repeal of HCR.”
16:43 Michael: I’m not going to say anything about any of the races until we hit 80% of precincts reporting. There’s too much random noise until then. But once we start getting to that level, I’ll begin reporting on any potential wave at that point.
16:40 DC: I’m taking over the posting into onto the liveblog. Let’s see if I can handle it. There aren’t many races called yet: results are either coming in slow, or we’re all impatient.
16:33 Fili: Forget “hurricane.” Forget “tsunami.” They’re both SO yesterday. The new GOP term is “asteroid strike.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-moran/a-case-for-the-asteroid-s_b_777929.html
Boehner told a joke that went something like this: “Remember when Ronald Reagan was President? We had Bob Hope and Johnny Cash. Now Barack Obama is President and we have neither Hope nor Cash.”
Roseanne took umbrage, and posted to her Twitter account:
“John Boehner: Stop using my dad’s name as a punchline, you asshat,”
A Google search for commentary led to Free Republic, where the commentary was mostly, “Her music sucks.”
14:40 Michael Weiss As we sit here awaiting the results of a long-awaited election, many questions remain, some of which will be answered tonight. Is there an enthusiasm gap this year, and will it affect the outcome of the election? Are people who ostensibly hate the Republicans more than the Democrats still going to vote for Republicans anyway? And if so, why?
Tonight we will be watching the results of Nate Silver’s key House seats. I compiled a spreadsheet to track the trends, looking at whether results lean more right or left than he had predicted, and propogating those results across to other key races further west. The idea here is that local effects will cancel each other out across the numerous House races, while national trends will remain. From what I read, I gather Nate’s team is doing much the same.
We have a great advantage at this site, however. You can comment, live, as the night progresses, just as we will. And we will read your comments, live, as the night progresses. Depending on how quickly things progress, we may even be able to respond. Since this is the first time we’ve done a live blog, I’m not sure how rapidly the landscape will change, and how fast we will have to move in order to keep up.
Since this is the pre-game show, let’s talk about the keys to the game, as it were.
For Democrats, the biggest key is turnout. High turnout elections have historically favored Democrats, and there’s little reason to believe this time is different in that regard.
For Republicans, the biggest key is the converting the generic ballot into the real ballot. It has been about 70 years since Republicans have had a generic ballot this far in their favor. Working counter to this, however, is a much more polarized electorate which has been gerrymandered to the point where relatively few seats are in play, compared to 70 years ago. For this reason, one should not expect comparable results. Nonetheless, it should be heartening to Republicans to see such a favorable margin in the generic.
In Newton and North Attleboro, the lines were forming before the polls opened and the flow has been steady all day. People we spoke to say they’re coming out to vote on tax issues.
The questions on the ballot were important to them. Some wanted to vote against the incumbent others felt it was important to stop the tide of opposition. Many say with all the hype and advertising they’ve seen- they simply couldn’t stay home.
14:18 Mr Universe: Well, here we go. Everybody strapped in? It should be an interesting race. We may not even get the full results until later this month. Alaska, Florida, Nevada and several other races promise to be nail-biters. Your 538Refugees will be here all day watching the news, polls, cartoons and whatever to bring you the latest. We’re glad you’re with us and we will be monitoring the comment section for goodies from you. Let’s do this.
ONEOF OUR MEMBERS VOTED TODAY AND NOTICED THAT HIS REPUBLICAN VOTES SWITCHED TO DEMOCRATE BEFORE HE SUBUMITTED HIS VOTE. LUCKY HE NOTICED IT, HE TRIED AGAIN 3 TIMES AND 3 TIMES THE VOTES SWITCHED TO DEMOCRAT.
HE TOLD THE POLL WORKERS, THEY TESTED THE OTHER MACHINES. 3 OF 5 SWITCHED VOTES TO DEMOCRAT.
EVERYONE THAT HAS NOT VOTED, PLEASE BE SURE YOUR VOTES DON’T SWITCH!!!!!
I’m counting on three things to get me through this night…
1.) a stack of fresh warm edamame for nervous nibbling
2.) a bottle of Bailey’s
3.) my mantra for the day:… “Blessed are those who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed.”
FWIW… Mike McDonald at Pollster.com cautions against reading too much into the old saw that an early result on the eastern seaboard can reveal anything significant about national election trends.
He reminds us that “All politics is local.” (Unless, of course, those early results are favorable to YOUR side.. in which case they are a totally reliable bellwether… )
Ed Rendell on MSNBC just said the African-American turnoutin Philly has been “phenomenal”… “amazing”… “a lot bigger than in 2006.”
Here’s a funny one! Andrew Breitbart says he’s on ABCelection-night panel… ABC begs to differ:
It’s a wild, ugly spectacle for ABC News,” Media Matters’s Eric Boehlert wrote.“And like I said, it’s not like we didn’t try to warn them: When you lay down with Breitbart, you’re gonna get fleas.”
15:03 Filistro By this time at Free Republic there are usually dozens of reports of “voter fraud”, illegal machines, etc. Nothing so far in “Breaking” or “Front-Page News.” Either the Freepers are so confident that for once they have stifled their notorious whining… or perhaps America has finally mastered this whole “voting” thing and learned to run a smooth election ?
16:21 Filistro Ed Schultz live from Las Vegas, reporting to MSNBC…… says Sharron Angle (who has notoriously avoided the press all through the campaign, and once called a press conference at which she refused to take questions) told a radio talk host today that “candidates need to teach the press a lesson,” and “we have to see a return to professionalism in journalism.” He also reports that in the Harry Reid campaign there is “a growing air of quiet confidence.”
In 1994, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. Since the economy is so very much worse now, this seems to mean Democrats are far more popular today than they were then. What do you think?
This is a real loss for the Democrats. But, considering the circumstances, far less than it should have been.
I had indicated a few days ago that there were 5 House races in Pennsylvania that I am watching for flips. They are 3 (Erie), 7 and 8 (Philly Suburbs), 10 and 11 (Northeast PA). Turnout will be above 50% in each of these districts. That’s above average for a midterm.
Ayuh, good, bad or who knows here we go. MSM is all but saying the election ended before it started this AM, so Bart you could be giddy before the night is over. Oh and Bart we shall be on you like a duck on a June bug for the next two years for every thing your side does and doesn’t do. Hey some one has to take your place as the loyal opposition…..you are loyal right? Uh Bart you there?
Mike for the districts you mention which way does high turn out cut? Are all the districts equal. I hear Ed Rendel on in the back ground and he says that the black vote may set records on the high end. Wish I knew more about Penn Politics but Rendel does and he is grinning. Could this be good for Sestak?
Local news outlets in Pennsylvania are saying turnout is high in all the populated areas.
All districts are equal. The Erie district cuts out well for Republicans. All five of these districts have a sizable pro-life, anti-gun control Democratic faction. As it looks like we are going to have turnout levels similar to 1994 and 2006 by percentage, those voters came out to cast votes of punishment. I can only conclude the same thing today.What kind of exit polling is out there, if any?
I am also hearing from GOP officials in Virginia that they are going to sweep the four targeted House seats. This is Nye, Connolly, Perriello, and Rick Boucher, of all people.
Thanks Mike……no exit polling I can find
Exit polling is indicating that:African American and the youth vote is below 94 levels.54% disapproval of Obama.A Dem TV analyst is calling the exit pollling mass murder.A GOP analyst looking at FL exit polling is saying it indicates they take everything.
NRO:I don’t have the exits, but folks I know in the media and political worlds are getting their first glimpses.Indicator Number One: I am told that one Democratic strategist, helping a television network with Election Night analysis, just declared that the Democrats were experiencing something on par with mass murder. The GOP counterpart looked at the same numbers and concluded the Democrats are, so far, not getting the urban turnout they need; suburban and rural areas are seeing big turnouts.Indicator Number Two: One Republican who is seeing early indicators in Florida says, “If this holds, we win everything.”http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/252009/first-reactions-exits-if-not-exits-themselves
Bart chill a little. At least post some thing worth reading. How about a where or what station and I’m sorry but a GOP analyst acting the Repub cheer leader doesn’t tell me much. I would reference the exchange between Mike and I above as some thing to look at. You don’t know any thing more than the rest of us do at this point and I would inclue most of what I am hearing on TV so far tonight. When I hear the problem is that the president didn’t work with the Republicans and now he needs to makes me want to gag. Should have bought a second fifth by the looks.
ABC News Exit pollinghttp://abcnews.go.com/Politics/vote-2010-elections-results-midterm-exit-poll-analysis/t/story?id=12003775
When I ask for information, I generally make it a requirement that you back up your data. Like this:”WASHINGTON – Voters across the nation Tuesday said they were intensely worried about the future of the economy and unhappy with the way President Barack Obama and Congress are running things.Voters in overwhelming numbers were dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working and majorities disapproved of both the Republican and Democratic parties, according to an Associated Press analysis of preliminary exit poll results and pre-election polls.Voters say the economy eclipses any other issue.About a third say their household suffered a job loss in the past two years, but that didn’t give a clear direction to their voting. They divided over which party to support in Tuesday’s House races.”http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/02/exit-polls-2010_n_777869.html
41% of exit polling are self identified Tea Party. If the exit polling is still undercounting conservatives, it may be higher.See above ABC link
I jumped the gun on you, Bart, and I apologize.Links are mandatory tonight!
I will do my best to post links. I am posting from my iPad and it is a bit slower.
Ok that is better thanks Mike, Bart. Bart I would wager a guess that such early numbers reflect very rural areas and that you should indeed see a heavy Tea effect……You do not actually expect that the entie vote will reflect the nation being 41% Tea do you?
Fox is reporting some exit polling, so I do not have a link:Youth vote halved from 08 from 18% to 9%.African American vote down from 14% to 10%.Indis are breaking to the GOP by 20%.
returns are starting to come in in KYhttp://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/22208/37112/en/summary.htmlfwiw – not much yet…
Fox News broadcast:48% want Obamacare repealed.
“From an “urgent” email sent by Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Hickenlooper:But here’s something that isn’t funny. From what I’ve seen, voter turnout is lower than expected and that’s not good for our team. We urgently need you to vote, and if you’ve already voted, we need you to get your friends and family out to the polls.Democrats found themselves down by 74,000 partisan votes as of midday Tuesday, so the urgency may be real.”http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/252023/democrat-voter-turnout-question-co-michael-sandoval
Rand Paul declared the winner at Fox with less that 4% of the vote because it’s a rout.1st Tea Party win.Taking a long swig on my beer.
Here’s a drinking game word for you:Mandate!
Leaked exit polls from Drudge and HuffPost:Blumenthal (D-CT) +8Rubio (R-FL) +21Blunt (R-MO) +10Boxer (D-CA) +8Kirk (R-IL) +6 Paul (R-KY) +11NV–EVENBennet (D-CO) +2Toomey (R-PA) +4Murray (D-WA) +6Manchin (D-WV) +7Johnson (R-WI) +5Source: Political Wirehttp://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/02/senate_exit_polls.html
Fox News broadcast exit polling:WV: 49% say vote against Obama, 57% want Obamacare repealed.
Then by all means repeal it Bart. Now would that include my quite wonderful government health care that is attached to my military retirement? Oh that is right you want to privatize that too don’t you. Bart the first sign of impending doom tomorrow (for you ) is just how quick and how far the teapers decide to go.
Mike… love those exit polls! I’m seeing the same thing. Also not seeing the “asteroid strike”.Feeling better… and better 🙂
A plugged-in, diehard Republican in Ohio: “My county chairman told me that by midday 35 percent of the Republicans had voted, only 15-16 percent of Democrats; and the University of Dayton, which had turned out 80-90 percent in 2008, was only at 12 percent at midday. And in our district, our strongest period is after 5 p.m.. Gonna be a looooong night for the Dems here.”http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/252044/ohio-republicans-their-turnout-figures
Looks like the GOP is going to sweep all the IN House seats. Chris Wallace let slip that the exit polling is suggesting a GOP House pickup north of 60 seats.
Oh, that Chris Wallace. What a greenhorn. He must not have recognized that his mike was on.
Bart… Nate’s model just ticked up to 55 seats. You need more than 70 to have the same margin the Dems have now.And there will be a Dem Senate and president. Not too much cause for rejoicing…
If DE and CN are not called immediately like OH and KY, tonight is going to be interesting indeed.
The first true tossup – KY06 – has almost two-thirds in and the incumbent Democrat, Ben Chandler, up by 5.75%
All the VA seats have heavy GOP leads. VA is going red.
Darn, DE and CN got called.Rubio won. 2d Tea Party win. Take another draw on thhe beer.
That scumbag Grayson is getting slaughtered in FL. Good riddens.
Ahhhhhhhh can’t get any Maine results…..Bart be careful with that beer if they are the ones I sent you they are really slippery because way down deep I really really have empathy for people with your affliction, not very damned much but some …..some where
Really Bart… you had hopes for DE? GET OUTTA HERE!!! LOL…Actually, DE has also lost its GOP congress critter. The Tea Party cost DE a senator AND a congressman!
I’m leaving the liveblogging to the big boys now, and staying down here where it’s cosy.Mainer and I are doing high fives.
Bart, your typing is already going downhill. Pace yourself, guy.
Bart where did you see any thing on Grayson? I’d be careful who I called a scumbag.
17:05 Michael: Our first race to cross the 80% threshold is FL10. 34/66 Young. That’s a 5-point shift to the right from Nate’s modelFL is not a bellwether. The turnout for the GOP there is nothing less than insane. The GOP is going to sweep away everything colored blue that is not surrounded by a 50 foot seawall.
Maimed:I’m sorry, but Grayson is a lying, slandering waste of air. Scumbag is too good for this piece of human garbage.
The Freepers, like Bart are completely bummed over O’Donnell’s loss in DE.The comments are SO FUNNY. One of them asks plaintively… “How can this not still be too close to call?”LOL…
Gee Bart and I think you are a lying waste of skin….you sure the two of you aren’t related. Bart you despise any one with the stones to stand up to this insanity. I hope the next two years you get a dose of what your side has dished out. You sure can shovel it but you have the strange idea that no one should be able to do it to your side.Oh and you can forget Florida getting a seawall……that might require spending money.
yes WV for Manchin……your boy didn’t buy that one Bart
Mainer, we have to make some allowance for Bart. He’s devastated, poor dear. He really, truly, thought they were going to take the Senate.
17:24 Michael: KY6 crossed the theshold. That’s the good news. The bad news is, Nate’s model is spot on with this seat. It’s a nail-biter.NRO:According to WLEX, a Lexington TV station: 73% of Precincts have reported. Chandler leads Barr by merely 173 votes. Polling has been tallied and closed in Lexington, and it’s a left-leaning college town. So Barr may win, as the remainder of district is more Republican-leaning.http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/252099/latest-ky-6-matthew-shaffer
The teabaggers should thank Kendrick Meek for handing Marco Rubio the senate seat in Florida. What an asshole.
Mainer:My question is why you do not agree that Grayson is scumbag.The guy claimed that the GOP healthcare plan was to kill people.The man ran a commercial slandering his opponent as a Taliban clone.Grayson was just crushed by the voters.Screw him.
And it means that a person Meeks age is done in politics. I’m guessing that maybe he should have listened to Clinton
Bart’s reaction to Grayson is hillarious. I wish there were more dems like Grayson. If we had more dems like Grayson the Teabaggers wouldn’t stand a chance.
@BartThe guy claimed that the GOP healthcare plan was to kill people.No. He pointed out the GOP had no plan to help people, and just allow them to die. There’s a difference, Bart.
Darn, the Dem who shot cap and tax will take WV. I guess you have to take literal shots at Obama policies to win as a heartland Dem.The GOP will very likely come up short in the Sen.
Bart, Grayson was telling the truth. The GOP standing up for the status quo on healthcare would mean that poor people would either die or go bankrupt if they got sick.
Folks,If you defend Grayson, then you share his views.This is the equivalent of a Republican defending a KKK member.
fili,re: From FOX and the Freepers:GOP reports that Coons camp is “panicking”http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2619837/postsI love the freeper comment, “Why is FOX not showing the numbers for many of these races?”
Bart, don’t be such a jerk. Tea Party politicians (and on occasion YOU, at thsi very blog …) have claimed that the President of the United States is a liar, a socialist, a foreign national, a Muslim, a Nazi, and a terrorist sympathizer.Where’s the outrage over THAT?
Bart I sent money to only a small handful of candidates….very small. 2 in this state. 1 in Florida……..need any more dots?Oh and 1 in PA and one in Ohio that was it.
Bart, put down the crack pipe.
re: This is the equivalent of a Republican defending a KKK member.No Bart, it’s more the equivalent of Michele Bachmann v Alan Grayson on sometimes over the top comments.I think Michele is FAR more over the top than any Dem, Grayson included.What’s your option of Michele Bachmann, Bart?
Bart, don’t be ridiculous.Teaper Leaders (and YOU, at this very blog) have called the President of the United States a liar, a foreign national, a socialist, a Nazi, a Muslim and a terrorist sympathizer.Where was all your manly outrage THEN?
Bart, don’t be ridiculous.Teaper Leaders (and YOU, at this very blog) have called the President of the United States a liar, a foreign national, a socialist, a Nazi, a Muslim and a terrorist sympathizer.Where was your manly outrage THEN?
you are 100% percent correct on grayson
Joe Trippy is conceding the tsunami in Fox. He looks as if he has food poisoning.Rove has ticked of a list of almost ten Dem House leaders whonare behind and one which is tied.
Go Prop 19!!!
Oh good.. I rebooted and it’s gone (fingers crossed.)Bart, don’t be such a jerk. Teaper leaders have called the President of the United States a liar, a foriegn national, a socialist, a Muslim, a Nazi and a terrorist sympathizer, and talked about “Obama’s death panels.”Where was your manly outrage at THAT?
Fili:Don’t worry. Grayson is the exception. I will allow his voters to make the case as to wha kind of man he is.
Bart, you’re being a jerk..
@BartlesFox is reporting some exit polling, so I do not have a link:~~~~~Bartles, fixednoise is not a news organization, so no biggie. ;)solo estoy diciendoMy night is already of to a bad start ~ NCIS is a rerun, but, but, but WSOP on ESPN at 9. :)>In the spirit of bipartisanship, let me be magnanimous …as is my way ;)knowing the Reps will do very well tonight, to congratulate all of 538’s winger trolls who picked “our” site over all the other liberal blogs that are out there.but, but, but again Bartles, w/retaking the house, comes responsibility as you said:Ain’t governing a bitch!btw, Tweety is interviewing Marsha Blackburn as I type re: balancing the budget and asked here what she would cut to offset extending cheney/bush tax cuts for the rich and she of course is clueless ie she won’t cut the military budget, SS, Medicare etc. etc.btw, Balckburn is much like palin, cute, but brain dead, I digress.>>>Again, congrats to the Reps on doing extremely well tonight! :)But as George C. Scott said at the end of Patton All fame is fleeting …Time for the WSOP, latertake care
Where was your manly outrage when Teaper leaders calld the POTUS a socialist, a foreign national, a Nazi, a terrorist sympathizer, ans talked endlessly about “Obama’s death panels?”The hypocrisy just slays me.
Shiloh:That was gracious. The GOP and Tea Party would be well advised to remember the adage about glory.
I think the comments had gotten bold.
stop bold (can’t post more than 10 words, getting moderated)
I saw that interview with rep Blsckburn as well. She pretty much says what all republicans say. Don’t touch spending, cut taxes and everything will be fine. The sad part is that the debt will keep skyrocketing and the repubs will pretend like it’s no big deal, just like they’ve done for the last thirty years.
the house is ours
Let me be so “bold” and ask the #1 question of the night:Will Delaware’s fav teabagger virgin witch, Christine I’ve never had a real job O’Donnell, do better than 2008 when she lost to Biden 65/35.re-checking HTMLciao
So will Boehner actually be the Speaker? Looks like they pulled it off but now can the nation survive 2 years of what it means? I don’t know but I have really ill feelings on things like the debt ceiling, DADT, the rich getting richer. I also feel really worried about our weak recovery. My feelings are that we have come as far as we will come for the next 2 years.
Hey Bart… re Grayson saying mean things about poor little R’sWhere was your manly outrage when Teaper leaders calld the POTUS a socialist, a foreign national, a Nazi, a terrorist sympathizer, and talked endlessly about “Obama’s death panels?”The hypocrisy just slays me.
please ignore 8,000 posts in spam filter
NRO just interviewed the CO GOP leader. The guy is all smiles. The GOP is up by 80,000 in early votes cast and the exit polling has the Indis breaking GOP. He flat out said that the GOP takes the Senate and all three contested Dem House seats. We will see if he is bragging.
@filistroI don’t know enough about the blog software to free comments in the filter anyway. When Mr. U returns, he might get swamped.
Can’t imagine it was Mule. I had trouble getting on earler but I think it was just a pretty loaded up system this night.
Damn, the GOP is leading in three NJ lean Dem districts with half the votes counted.
soo… starting to look like about 50 seats, no tsunami, no asteroid strike, no Senate.Dems keep all the toss-up Senate seats.After all the heat and passion… a fairly ordinary mid-term election 🙂
@MRjust say so.~~~~~soCry me a river!If only life was soooo easy! 😉
Hey.. I can post!
Bart… re: mean old Grayson saying nasty things about poor little R’s… where is your manly outrage when Teaper leaders call the POTUS a Nazi, a socialist, a foreign national, a terrorist sympathizer… and talk about “Obama’s death panels?”Hypocrisy much?
Christine O’Donneell got fewer votes than Alvin Greene.
O’Donnell concession speech… the Republican party will never be the same. LOL.
Just heard Rubio’s acceptance speech. It sounded eerily similar to Obama’s dreams of my father. What a douche.
Where did every thing go?
I wonder if everybody is hitting the moderation screen.
@BartThat was gracious. The GOP and Tea Party would be well advised to remember the adage about glory.~~~~~Bart, I have my moments lol. Remember the night Scott Brown won I also congratulated Reps and about (40) posts down the page MPM jumped all over me in glee w/out first reading said post.The next day I started a one mo. vacation from 538 as yes Virginia, it can be done. hmm, maybe I’ll start a (6) mo. vacation tomorrow. ;)The crowd cheers!Pretty sure my first post upon returning was re: the Canadian hockey team as the Vancouver Olympics had just ended, I digress.btw, the Swedish Women’s Curling team had some babes, eh Fili. 🙂
Bart,re: re: This is the equivalent of a Republican defending a KKK member.No Bart, it’s more the equivalent of Michele Bachmann v Alan Grayson on sometimes over the top comments.I think Michele is FAR more over the top than any Dem, Grayson included.Again I as, what’s your option of Michele Bachmann, Bart?
Philadelphia turnout has not been ideal for Democrats, with no area breaking 30 percent today. In a city with a 6-1 Democrat registration advantage, this is good news for Toomey.Allegheny County, Onorato’s home base and home to Pittsburgh, went for Sestak by a decent margin, roughly 57 to Toomey’s 42 percent, but campaign staffers say this was expected, and Toomey’s 42 percent represents about the draw they were aiming for there.http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/252172/breaking-philly-turnout-fails-break-30-percent-thomas-shakely
shrinkers,So far, so good for Mark Dayton v idiot teaper Tom Emmer for MN governor.
And Muslim Keith Ellison, D, MN has just been projected as one of the reelected Congressmen representing MN
I’m jamming 538’s radar. 😉as I control the horizontal and the verticalsit quietly as I will control all that you see and hear …btw, Matt Affleck just got bounced from the WSOP.carry on
@shiloh… btw, the Swedish Women’s Curling team had some babes, eh FiliYou’re such a hound… ;-)Man, I feel good. Almost euphoric. This is really my best case scenario. R’s hold a 30-40 seat margin in the House (unlike the Dem’s current 70+ margin) enough that they have to TRY to govern and will be accountable… but they have a limited gain in the Senate and some crazy new members (Rand Paul sounds promising 😉 who are full of themselves and will be hard to please.Claire McCaskill has a merry glint in her eye when she talks about trouble a’comin within teh GOP… :-)Ahhh… LOVE that “dodged-a-bullet” feeling!
your welcome for pushing Grayson out of your elected reps.
@JeanMinnesota is sane. We will lead the nation toward 2012.
According to Gallup, the average midterm loss of seats if the president is below 50% approval… 36.So, after the worst recession in a century, Obama loses about 15-20 seats more than average (about the same number Clinton lost in his first midterm) and hangs onto the Senate quite decisively.I can see 2012 from my House!No wonder poor Bart has disappeared 🙂
19:05 Monotreme: I am definitely inviting BOTH Bart DePalma and Alan Grayson to my next dinner party.Are you trying to start a fight?:::smile:::
The best thing about this election… EVERYBODY wins a little bit.We can all have a group hug and sing Kumbaya around the campfire… (sniffle)… I wonder how much the GOP spent for each of those House seats? 🙂
Fili:You are so cute. This has been a wholesale slaughter. While it would have been nice to have a once in a century wave as projected by Gallup, I will settle for the once in 75 year wave projected by Ras.
Not only were my five Pennsylvania targets all going to the GOP, but it looks like Mark Critz is going to the wire in Johnstown. More importantly, Jason Altmire, who really did a lot of work distancing himself from the President, is only up by 400 votes.
How the hell did my TV end up tuned to CBS News? CBS News is now projecting a Republican net gain in the House of 45 seats. At no point does Katie Couric mention that 45 is less than expected. 45 is the new “wave.” I assume Katie’s script was written last week so that she could have time to rehearse, because her writers were obviously expecting a 60+ gain. Katie’s really needs a Palinderthal co-anchor at her side to make her appear intelligent by comparison. Ben Quayle, maybe?
“Once in a century,” Bart?Mid term losses:06.. Bush.. 3094.. Clinton.. 5274.. Ford.. 4866.. LBJ.. 4758.. Ike.. 48But… “once in a century.” You betcha.
MSNBC… Tea party loses 21 seats, wins 14
A headline from HP:Bush Says Being Called A Racist By Kanye West The Worst Moment Of His Presidencyhmm, so I guess all the U.S. soldiers dying and critically injured in his Iraq War and all the Iraqi innocent civilian deaths and injuries was no biggie.cheney/bush being caught w/their pants down on 9/11 notwithstanding.He also said recently he missed being pampered 24/7.>Would somebody please pimp slap dubya into unconsciousness …solo estoy diciendo>btw, when Nixon called me unAmerican (40) years ago it made me smile! 🙂
I just finished watching a movie to turn on Fox to see their map showing all the reporting districts tinted by the vote leads. It is always fun to see a map covered in red.
red = communist, of course.:-)
Are we looking at +70 now in the House? Ike Skelton, of all people, down by 5 points. John Dingell only up 1. Sestak can’t hold this lead in the PA-Senate.
fili,re: Tea party loses 21 seats, wins 14.And what a worse-case scenario for the Republican party leadership. Talk about herding cats. It will be interesting to watch how the GOP leadership try to work with or co-opt this newly minted faction of the Republican party.Pass the popcorn.
The GOP is ahead in 63 and lost 2 before the SW and W coast even reports. The tsunami roars on.
Polls here are about to close. Where are ya’, Alki?Chet Edwards – one less Blue Dog in the House. Texans who will miss him should have had the sense to move the hell out of Texas in the 1980’s.John Dingell is behind in Michigan. For every accounting lie that publicly traded corporations are not allowed to publish on a financial statement, thank John Dingell. He is one of the most intelligent legislators ever to hold high office, and the best financial watchdog America could have ever hoped to see in Congress. I have never lived in or near Michigan, but we are all better-off for his having served.
Mike generally speaking what areas report first in PA? Rural or the big cities?
Okay, just this one more teeny little dig, and I’ll quit…10/26/2010 5:13: PMSHRINKERS ASKED: 1) What would you view as the worst likely outcome? What are both the short-term and long-term implications of that?BART’S RESPONSE: House: GOP+50; Senate: GOP+8The Dem negative ad blitz succeeds in keeping many Indis home and the tsunami turns into a medium wave.The Dems will spin this as less than 1994 and attributable to the economy. Obama would be encouraged and completely intransigent. The Tea Party would be disappointed and it would be more of a challenge to maintain the enthusiasmLOL 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
11/2/2010 7:53 PM shrinkers wrote: red = communist, of course.:::heh:::All this color coding started when the GOP happened to have the red in some network’s map. Twist of fate.
How many of the Dem seats lost were Blue Dogs – seats that in most years would never have been held by Dems anyway?IMO, I am not disappointed to lose Blue Dogs like Blanche Lincoln. I’d rather deal with a known adversary (Republican) than someone you THOUGHT was on your side, but really wasn’t.Goodbye, Blanche and good riddance.
My heavens, Michigan is turning red. Have the folks there finally tired on Dem misrule and a decade long depression?
Stop calling Washington a toss-up state. The Senate race is not a toss-up, and never was.But… but… what do I know? What does Alki know? We live in an echo chamber, after all. It just happens to be a really big echo chamber that can and does normally force its will upon the rest of the state.
Big cities always report first in Pennsylvania, then the rural areas. It has always been this way for 100 years. Toomey up 1. Critz and Altmire came back ahead.Nan Hayworth ahead in New York 19 (Hudson River Valley). Michigan might only have 4 D’s in the House total (Dingell, Levin, Conyers, and the other Detroit seat). The old Dave Obey seat is going to the Republican, Sean Duffy.
The Dem House Budget Chair Spratt was evicted after a quarter century.The GOP took the NC legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.
Fili::::chuckle:::The GOP went beyond my low end projection of 50 seats an hour ago. It looks like the GOP will have the largest gain in the House since 1932.Spin away my dear, I am celebrating.
Hmmmm well that will probably mean the end to NC being a regional leader. Oh well. Elections have consequences.
Spin away my dear, I am celebrating.Hey.. so am I! Don’t you love it when everybody wins? 🙂
Poor CA. They are self destructing like Michigan a decade ago repeating the same awful Dem policies. CO can look forward to another wave of CA refugees as CA flirts with public union driven sovereign insolvency.
UH OH… big Teaper loss in NV! Harry at 53% with 50% counted.Oh dear… 🙂 we better expect some 2nd Amendment remedies…
20:17 Michael: In an incredible shock to all of us, WA7 is going to the Republican candidate. Wait a minute! There wasn’t even a Republican on the ballot! You kids don’t make me come in there!!There was an state income tax initiative on the ballot, though. No surprise it failed bigtime.Perhaps the two most interesting items on the ballot in Washington are competing initiatives to end the state monopoly of retail hard liquor sales. I fully expect us to shoot ourselves in the foot in a big way.
Bart, as CO is your state, please give us an update.Politico has Bennett leading 50/45 w/25% reporting.and Hickenlooper leading 53/36 w/25% reporting.Don’t be bashful lolbtw, the Rep party candidate for governor has less than 10% currently.
AP just called Tim Walz, Dem in MN as the winner. Big-time Republican money in this race went nowhere.
Boehner is such a schmuck lolcarry on
Boehner is crying again. What a lying, corporate whore. He should be ashamed of himself. Piece of shit.
Too much booze an dmaybe some one telling him that he isn’t going to be the speaker……come to think of it Cantor did look pretty damn smug earlier tonight.
CaliforniaPROP 19 – LEGALIZE AND TAX MARIJUANATotal Reporting:12% Votes Pct.NO 1,051,953 56%YES 839,457 44%That’s all right, that’s okay,I took a bong hit anyway.
Would like to thank Linda McMahon for stimulating 😉 CT’s economy w/her wasted personal campaign funds.Would like to thank Carly Fiorina for stimulating 😉 CA’s economy w/her wasted personal campaign funds.Hey, it’s better to give than to receive …
Cantor is another liar. The panel on MSNBC asked him what he was going to cut and he just Barted talking point after talking point.
shrinkers,Republican and Dem parties bickering and accomplishing nothing, so instead voted in a third-party feather-boa wearing wrestler as Governor instead. If nothing else, at least we would have the entertainment value and could always vote him out later if dissatisfied. Jesse was not bad; he FINALLY got light-rail (very needed) on track, installed and now hugely popular.
Would like to thank Meg Whitman for stimulating 😉 CA’s economy w/her wasted personal campaign funds.
Early on, Jerry Brown leads all other candidates combined. Once I went in to caucus for Tsongas and came out a Moonbeam alternate delegate. Our precinct got an extra vote against Bill Clinton that way.
So if the Republicans get less than 10% and get listed as a minor party and the tea party isn’t actually a party what does Colorado do for a Conservative party? No snark I’m just really curious.
@JeanJesse didn’t suck. We’ve had far worse. His cable TV show on paranoid conspiracy theories is a hoot.
WA-I-1100 – Liquor Sales APPROVE 658,102 48% REJECT 704,512 52%Mebbe my belorved state liquir strore will susrvive affer allsz. I lovesz y’all. alla y’all. cep’n you.
@MainerSo if the Republicans get less than 10% and get listed as a minor party and the tea party isn’t actually a party what does Colorado do for a Conservative party? No snark I’m just really curious.~~~~~Unintended Consequences of The Tea PartyColorado, a state with a healthy Republican majority, is on the verge of illustrating how the Tea Party can actually damage Republicans. If the polls stand in the Colorado Governor’s race, the republican nominee and tea party darling Don Maes may garner less than 10% of the vote. If Maes gets less than 10% the Republicans will be rendered a “minority party” under Colorado law. If that happens – Republican candidates will be listed in small font down the ballot with folks like the Communist and Hemp Parties in the next election.~~~~~Oh the humanity! 😉
Harry Reid wins!After watching Paladino’s discombobulation er concession speech lol can’t wait for Angle to make a fool of herself also.You bet’cha!So let’s recap, shall we Bartles:If not for your beloved teabaggers 😉 the Reps may have took control of the senate …woulda, coulda, shoulda
Patty Murray ((D)) 703,637 50.6%Dino Rossi ((R))687,102 49.4%51% reportingIn the past, urban areas have been slower to report, but now that we’re all mail, who knows?
I may be many thousands of miles away, but my first audible applause of the night was when Senator Reid was announced as the winner. It would’ve been a travesty if Sharron Angle took that seat away.All-in-all, my expectations for the night worked out as – well – expected. The only surprise for me is that Alex Sink is still trailing career criminal Rick Scott. Outside of that, no surprises at all.
Going to take a while to sort this all out. I am not encouraged that not one of the Republicans interviewed tonight seemed to have any thing to say but more talking points. When given a chance to shift gears from campaign to hey we are ready to govern…..they blew the shift making me think that my fears are not groundless. Bart are you still so sure these people can govern or are you more interested in tanking what is left of the country?Now with Reid winning and control of the Senate staying in Democrat hands the dynamics of this is going to be very interesting. The House loss isn’t good and is going to cause us some ancious moments but for tonight Bart drink yourself silly. A win is a win but now doing some thing with it could be a problem.
So… any bets on who is going to write up impeachment articles? And what the “charges” will be?
21:51: Mr. Universe: Ben Smith asks “Can someone please tell me how California elect Jerry Brown again?” Jerry Brown is 70’s weird, and weird passed him by years ago. No one can outpace weird for more than a few years. Not since Tiny Tim died, anyway.
Issa. With help from a few of his friends both inside and out side of government.
My heart wants Scott McAdams to win in Alaska, but my brain is loving that “Write-In Votes” is leading and could cause the entire microscope of our political punditry on Alaska.Good for Lisa Murkowski.
Damn my Indy candidate for Gov is down by .78%Still 127 precincts to count but the numbers are getting thin.
And Bennett may actually be ahead but because of a typo orsome such is mis listed….oh man
Michael: have to wonder how a state that is smart enough to write in their Senator was still dumb enough to elect Sarah Palin as governor. Lizard People might win this one.
Once again, The Onion sums up my feelings about the election quite nicely, thanks.
CO people are saying that Bennett will win…..don’t know why.Mainer…..what happened to your governor’s race…..the teaper is in the lead again?WA-07…..King County takes forever to count votes. After the last Rossi contest, they are afraid of making a mistake and causing a brouhaha.
“Hep me! Hep me! I been hyp-no-TIZED!”
Alki, yeah I did well on every thing else and our 2 Dem Reps are both winning by double digits but in the gov race it has seesawed back and forth with the Rep/Teap up right now by about 1 %. The Indy could still pull it out but it isn’t going to be easy. Amazing the Dem that was almost in a tie with the Rep as ittle as about a week ago just fell off a vote cliff.
Local news confirms that western Washington counties, with their big cities, still take much longer to count than the rest of the state. In other words, Dino Rossi is 0 for 3 in statewide races. Suck on that, eastern Washington.
I see now why Bennett will win. Most of the red counties have reported. However, votes from the Denver metro area are only about half in and that’s the major vote center for Bennett. I am surprised they haven’t called it for Bennett.
I was just looking at some of that. May have a similar thing here as I was just looking at out standing precincts. Could come down to less than one percent difference which could mean a recount but not sure if that would make that big a difference. Some question with absentee votes so who knows. I know my eyes are about fried.
Alki, how do you think the 2012 governor’s race will work out?Gregoire vs Rob McKenna? Tonight, I bet McKenna would win. Pound him for two years about joining the healthcare lawsuit, and maybe not. Gotta figure the economy will be in his favor though, as long as it takes for tax collections to catch up after any economic recovery.
I’m weirdly proud of the fact that the ONLY race in which the strong favorite did not win was UT-2, where the Democrat Jim Matheson, a Blue Dog, may well lose.Matheson deserved to lose and he didn’t vote with the Democratic caucus anyway.
There are still races out there. I don’t even know if our to Reps have been called even if the out come is pretty obvious and both Dems win handily. On the Gov side still a nail chomper and not sure I will make it through to the fat lady singing. Mr. U and all thanks for a great night, hell even good with Bart tonight. Republicans did pretty well now if they use it well. One can only hope.
President Madison would be pleased with tonight’s results. The house of public opinion bent toward it’s favor. The house of governance will continue to govern. I do love the Constitution. God bless America!
Gregoire is boring as hell but she does a good job. After McKenna joined that lawsuit, there will be many lefties including myself who will work diligently to defeat him. And in 2012, the economy will be back…..at least in WA state.
A good day, next up a budget battle and state bailout. Big Shout out to Niki Hally, one of Palin’s top allies and one of the first “mama grizzlies” .
Mr. Universe: Reality check! I checked 538 24 hours ago, and Nate claimed that Sharron Angle had a 82% chance of winning. Instead, she got stomped on like a bug. He could be similarly wrong on 2 or 3 other senate races yet. Nate not only has egg on his face, he has an omelette all over his suit. that was some republican senate wave huh? not! So we lose conservative dems Evan Bayh and Blanche Lincoln’s seat, John Hoeven is a former democrat who will likely have an independent streak, Mark Kirk is a moderate, Toomey had to play moderate and Specter was never a real democrat anyway, so you can call that a GOP hold, hardly a hard shift right in the senate. Murray, Bennet and Murkowski could all pull it out.And how about that? Sarah Palin’s personally backed Tea Party candidate in Alaska is looking to lose, giving the election to her arch rival. Nothing like getting slapped in the face by your home state.alot of the house dems that lost were conservative dems, so weren’t not talking about a gigantic shift here. feel the wave, LOL!
hey, remember the days when they were telling us that republicans were certain to pick up senate seats in Delaware, Connecticut and Nevada? how did all of those work out? LOL!
I’m wondering why Bart is so happy, as his worst-case prediction (remember that thread?) was: “House: GOP+50; Senate: GOP+8″If he meant a 50-seat majority in the house and 8-seat majority in the Senate, then he should be crying in his tea.If those were relative to the current makeup of those two bodies (being Bart, he’s never really definitive), then the new makeup of the bodies, with swings of 60 and 2, about match, on average, his worst-case, so he should be unhappy.But then, math — or even simple arithmetic is not one of the strong suits of the folks who are tea partyers. Neither is consistency.Up here, thanks to the extreme care with which the DFL chose the weakest gubernatorial candidate they could find, we’ve got another recount to look forward to. I can barely contain my joy at the prospect.And, speaking of mathematical ability, thanks to folks like Eusebio Dunkle, who don’t seem to be able to understand what “first past the post” means, 6000 people voted for the Green candidate, while another 6000 voted for the “Ecological Democracy Party” candidate, who apparently feel that the Green party, having existed for several election cycles, is now hidebound and beholden to their big donors.The Green party folks consider the EDP folks as splitters, of course.That 12,000 votes would almost certainly have gone to the DFL and rendered a recount unnecessary. Thanks again, guys.And the GOP now has control of the state legislature, so things are just going to get worse, except for the executives at 3M and their like. Thanks, voters! Enjoy the trickle-down economy!
Ooops. The swing on the House and Senate is approximately R+60 and R+6 (not 2). My bad. Doesn’t change the point, though. Why the celebration?
shortchain… Don’t let Bart fool you. He is devastated by this, on several levels. It is his worst case scenario… a “medium” wave, an even worse outcome in the Senate than expected, a total smackdown in his own state… and a BRUTAL repudiation of the Tea Party.The Republicans are well aware that without the Tea Party they would hold the Senate now and control all the levers of power.(I wonder what this massive refudiation does to Sarah Palin’s future? Nothing good, I expect.)Poor Bart… a terrible, terrible result for him.
Blue Dogs have been cut from 54 to 26.So, if you figure 28 Blue Dog seats that should never have been Dem in the first place, the loss is about 30… wholly in line with normal midterm losses for the president’s party.Man, it’s all such a RELIEF 🙂
Chuck Todd just asked Haley Barbour if the public will be angry when the new GOP House starts trying to cut favors for big business and Wall Street. Barbour says “The Republicans are not about big business and big money. We’re all about small business.“LOL… this is going to be so much fun..
@shortchain.I’m sorry that you obligate yourself to support a weak candidate, evidently many weak-willed Horner supporters felt the same way and changed their mind in the voting booth. I feel good about my vote for the Ecological Democracy Party.You also make a mistake presuming these Wright/Young/Pentel votes would otherwise support the DFL. Without 3rd party candidates, I often contemplate just heading straight for the ditch =)Also, please don’t insult me out of frustration. I am not your boogyman.
filistro,This result isn’t just a terrible result for Bart — it’s a bad result for the country as a whole. I’m not sure it’s such a bad result for the world, as it’ll give the rest of the world a leg up, if they’re capable of taking it.But the result means nothing but endless and unproductive wrangling in Congress — while nothing really happens except that the deck chairs get rearranged a few times. The mountebanks and charlatans like Michele Bachmann, and DeMint, who prey on the credulous fools in the tea party while protecting the privileges and profits of the plutocrats, will be in fine form, and we’ll have to see their lying faces on the news a lot.As for Sarah Palin, in the end stupidity is often a fatal disease. And she’s already skirted disaster too many times. Luck runs out, eventually, and her time is about gone.
Just got a big kick in the pants here in the Florida Senate race…Charlie Crist + Kendrick Meek votes combine for 50% of the electorate (and likely to increase more as Palm Beach County continues to trickle in). There’s reason to believe that Charlie Crist by himself without Kendrick Meek on the ballot would have stood a good chance to beat Marco Rubio. Sure, there’s no way to know what turnout is like without a Democrat running for Senate, but it is a bit disappointing. THAT was probably MY worst-case scenario.Unfortunately, we’ll never know.
From a Tea Party POV, the exit polling and election results provides some more guidance about the movement:Self identified Tea Party voters were about 41% of the election day vote. Exit polling obviously does not include early voting and tends to miss conservatives, so this is an approximation at best. We will have to wait for Ras’ post election “exit polling” to include the early voters.The Tea Party is a heavy majority GOP voting block, but not monolithic. About 15% of self identified Tea Party folks cast ballots for Dems. This is what kept the biggest turnaround since 1948 from becoming the biggest turnaround since 1932 and sent folks like Manchin to the Senate.So far as I know, every single Dem in a swing district or state who stood by the President went down. This suggests that the 15% of Tea Party folks voting Dem probably went to heartland Blue Dogs who were either condemning the President’s policies or taking literal shots at them. I need to check to see how many of the Blue Dogs who voted against the Porkulus and Obamacare survived.I wonder if the near death experience will cause any Blue Dogs to switch parties or simply govern as the conservatives they campaigned as. If so, the GOP majority in the House will effectively become a super majority and the Senate will become very interesting indeed as there are about seven Red State Dem Senators who go before the voters in 2012.
shortchain… sure it will be painful for now, but in the long-term nothing is more productive for Democrats than having these clowns front and center.Josh Marshall has a smart theory about why the Teapers did well in House races but performed so dismally at the Senate level. It’s because Senate candidates get so much more scrutiny. Now the whole country is going to be scrutinizing these newcomers… and the image that emerges will not be pretty. Not only will they be saying ugly, stupid things all over the place… they will be actively (and visibly) fighting against their own party leadership. The most obvious evidence this was a disappointing election for the right… none of them are in here gloating this morning, are they? 😉
I’m pleased with the outcome of this election in several ways.It was a complete and total validation of Nate Silver’s approach to the data.It is always a happy day in a representative democracy when there is an orderly shift of power from one party to another. In other respects, I am less happy. I can’t shake the feeling (mixed metaphor alert) that we just elected Smoot and Hawley to Captain of the Titanic.At the local level, things are much, much worse. I’m going to need to man the lifeboats at work as well, because we’re in for a really bad patch. The inevitable worsening of the economic crisis his country faces will mean hard choices will have to be made. My organization’s leadership has already rejected the “one for all and all for one” approach I strongly favor and is taking a fast train to Galt’s Gulch. It’s not my favorite way to work, but I can hold my own in that environment, I just don’t think it’s a great idea.
@filistroYou’re obviously right about Bart being depressed. His last comment was the most subdued I’ve seen him in a long, long time.I’m unhappy about last nights results, but I have no need to spin them. The Republicans picked up a lot of seats, though most of them were seats the Democrats shouldn’t have had in the first place, and only had due to the Republican disaster of the Bush years.Two years from now, voters will hold Republicans responsible for the state of the economy in the same way the voters held Democrats responsible yesterday. The first indication of how things are going to go will come pretty soon. Congress must vote on whether to raise the debt ceiling. If the Republicans do raise it, that will really anger the insane base who voted for them. And if they don’t, that will tank the economy so far and so fast and so deeply it’ll make the Great Depression seem like boom times.I’m reading in the paper that Republicans are claiming the rift between newly-elected Teaper candidates and the traditional Republican power base has been overplayed. They will all, the claim goes, actually work together nicely. It will be interesting to see if the Tea Party voters who railed against The Establishment will see people their Congressional freshmen darlings as sellouts if they cooperate with Boehner.
There’s no reason at all that Rick Scott should be the next Governor of Florida, but there’s Alex Sink, conceding the Governor’s race on my screen.NOW I’m really depressed…
shrinkers,re: Jesse didn’t suck. We’ve had far worse. I agree. In fact, I voted for Jesse and was glad he won. BTW, Jesse was one of the best men at the wedding of one of my sisters. And Jesse’s lake cabin is on the same lake that my parent’s cabin is on, so I have known Jesse for years. He always captains the lead pontoon on the 4th of July pontoon parade.
shrinkers… if you doubt the schism between the Tea Party and the GOP power base, just read these love letters to Boehner from the Tea Party.And don’t buy into Bart’s spin that Freepers are just a “fringe” and not real Tea Party members. Free Republic organizes, funds and manages the Tea Party Express. These kids are not the sort who “go along to get along.” They are a nest of vipers.
First ‘Hello’ to everyone. Second, regardless of how Bart is taking this, I have a different take on the outcome than many of you. Last night was TERRIBLE for Dems and the President. And I’m not alone in thinking that… here’s Ezra Klein and First Read on the outcome-Ezra Klein: “From the perspective of actually getting anything done in the next two years, there was perhaps no worse outcome. Republicans don’t fully control Congress, so they don’t have enough power to be blamed for legislative outcomes. But Democrats don’t control the House and they don’t have a near-filibuster proof majority in the Senate, so they can’t pass legislation. Republicans, in other words, are not left with the burden of governance, and Democrats are not left with the power to govern. Republicans don’t have to be responsible, and Democrats can’t do it for them.”First Read: “The likely next House speaker, John Boehner, couldn’t have asked for a better result from last night. With Democrats in charge of the White House and the Senate, Boehner’s GOP-controlled House now has the potential to pass legislation at will, but blame the Obama administration and the Senate for the inability to get things done — or to pass THEIR versions of legislation (like, say, repealing health care). Which ever party wins the spin war over the expected gridlock in Washington will have the upper hand heading into 2012.”
@JeanThat is very cool re: Jesse. How can anyone not like the guy?@filistroWe do have the civil war within the Republican Party to look forward to, don’t we? 😉 If the newly-minted Teaper froshes carry the Revolution into the halls of power, it’ll be an entertainment spectacle of magnificent (dare I say ‘biblical’?) proportion. And if they don’t, then their voters will go completely off the deep end. Well, farther off. It’ll be fun watching them cut off the head of their own Party.
Hi Gator. Are you Gatordad? If so, warm welcome! (Well, welcome anyhow, you know what I mean.. 😉 But I really LIKE Gatordad, and it’s always such a rare treat to run across a likeable rightie…To your post.. much as I normally like Ezra Klein, I just don’t buy this spin.The GOP simply can’t have it both ways all the time. They can’t win a thumping, 60 year, 60-seat victory in the House and then keep saying “no, not us, we have no responsibility for anything, we’re just here keeping teh seats warm and making sure Obama doesn’t do stuff…”The public sees that GOP as having more or less taken over. They gave the R’s a big vote and THEY EXPECT THEM TO DO SOMETHING. If nothing gets done… especially if the gridlock is due to internecine squabbling over ideology… then the GOP is going to pay dearly, dearly for not helping to pull the economy out of the ditch.
Eusebio,I’m sorry if you think I insulted you. Pointing out that those who voted for candidates who have no chance to win is the same as not voting at all, which is the same, in a close election, as voting for a recount, is not much of an insult.It also happens to be true. Savor your moral superiority. It comes at a cost to everyone.filistro,I’m not seeing much of anything positive about the results of this election. No indication that a large portion of the populace learned anything from the last time they elected a simpleton — who, it must be pointed out, was at least well-meaning, unlike Rand Paul and his ilk. No indication that, however well-meaning, the GOP-led House will be able to do anything but hand more wealth and power to the wealthy and powerful, thanks to the successful divide and conquer strategies of the plutocrats and those in our country who yearn to be serfs or, in their delusional state, imagine that they will someday be lords of the manor.
Muley wrote me personally;
So this is how you guys shut down opposing thought? Just block someone entirely from posting on your blog?
I see a comment from filistro saying, “They’re not on here gloating this morning, are they?” as “proof” last night was disappointing for conservatives.
I wanna respond so badly with, “Like hell!” But it seems I can’t do that because you guys prefer an echo chamber. No sign of GROG either, and I wouldn’t be a damn bit surprised if you blocked him too.
Have fun wallowing your own pathetic smelly, Mentos commercial! (Last three words mine)
Yes. As much as it pained me to do so, I banned Mule from the site. It became more about him than it did politics. I really don’t have time to deal with personal issues. At some point I have to make decisions that are in the best interests of everyone who visits here over personal BS. Mule’s over the top, obscenity filled commentary forced me to take drastic measures. And rather than try to reason with him, I took the easy road. I chose not to deal with him at all.
I have a blog for political fans. I have to manage the content of it on a daily basis. I have a visitor who, despite his occasional relevant contributions, is prone to obscenity and threatening behaviour. I had a box marked ‘block IP’, and I clicked it.
At what point is it about politics and not about you, Muley? Yes, I kicked you out of the sandbox. You can’t really be surprised about that, can you? In some perverse manner, I think you enjoy it.
I can unclick that box if you will agree to find a way to express yourself in a manner that isn’t laden with obscenities, and blustery bravado. When you resort to that methodology to make your point, it alienates everybody. And I’m trying my best to be inclusive here. BUT I WILL NOT SACRIFICE THE QUALTY OF THE VENUE OVER DEALING WITH PERSONAL ISSUES.
Mostly because I don’t have to. Get it? You know how to find me. Mr. U.
Recent history says the Republicans got just what they need to finish tanking the American and possibly world economic system and duck any responsibility for doing it.We are in for some even rougher years and the entertainment factor will wear thin for most of us later this week. I picked a shit time to retire but might as well because there will not be any business to conduct for those of us not rich. I have this sickening feeling that my some of my family came to this land as indentured servants (a phrase engineered because having white slaves was considered in bad taste) and I would not be surprised if we didn’t now end up that way. Fine mess I have left my sons and grand kids.There will be sparks in the Republican ranks but keep one thing in mind. Like Bart the cnservative, right, social conserv, neocon, evangelical elements in this cuntry may not make the best of bed fellows but the one thing they dislike even more is people like most of us on here. This crowd would eat dog shit if they thought it would spite a Democrat or any thing progressive. We are I fear in for some rough times. I wonder if any of them have thought through the far, far out possibility of just how vulnerable this once great land is and how certain acts that may now be considered could cause damage that might not be fixable. Bart buddy enjoy those cold beers for a big win but remember that there are many of us out here watching and waiting and we need to see some thing that indicates your side has any capacity to lead. So how are folks going to react to the economy going over the cliff a second time with a Republican hand on the wheel? This we shall know in short order as early plans and acts play out…one of my fav comments has been the desire to cancel all “Porkulus” money un spent……one wonders if those back home are going to be content with local projects being canceled. How about Haley Barbour…now he i more than a little expansive about the big win. Can his govenors take a complete shut off of federal funds…..I expect we are about to find out. Can simplistic solutions to complex issues now carry the day? oooh oooh I have a sound bite that will fix every thing, where is my magic fix it all tax cutting wand? Governing is such a bitch.
@Mr. UniverseI’ve always felt that them what deos the work gets to make the rules.We used to throw some big parties. We’d tell our guests, You don’t have to be polite. Be as offensive as you want to be! But you can’t do that here.If someone really objects to a lack of obscenity, such a person is free to start their own blog, make their own rules, and run it however they please. True freedom, of the most libertarian kind 🙂
Scott said;NOW I’m really depressed…Now you know how it feels to have a George Wallace as your representative. Wonders never cease.
FWIW, Mr. U., I think you made the right decision.
I support Mr. U’s decision.In fact, he has been the strongest voice for free speech amongst the group of us who regularly post here. If it had been my decision alone, I would’ve executed the ban earlier.I LOVE commentary from another perspective. I have no desire to make this a right-wing (or left-wing) echo chamber. I truly appreciate a lively back-and-forth.Mule Rider, on a good day, is perhaps the best and most insightful conservative (dare I say, “center-right”) commentator we have. On a bad day, and there are many bad days, he’s a pain in the flowerpot. A massive rainbow. An insufferable confetti.Over the last couple of days, his invective reached a level no one could tolerate, even the ever-tolerant Mr. U.I would welcome a return of the insightful Mule Rider. I will not tolerate a profanity-spouting, content-free Mule Rider.
Muley… I’ve always defended you, and now you’ve made me look foolish for doing so. You have this weird idea you get to be grossly offensive and obscene whenever some little thing upsets you, and everybody just has to accept it.This is OUR house now, and we don’t have to accept it. If we ran a small restaurant and somebody came in on a regular basis, dropped their pants and crapped on the floor, do you think we would welcome their patronage… or call the police and get a restraining order?Because worst of all.. we know you can control yourself if you want to. We’ve all seen you do it. So you obviously ENJOY going off on disgusting obscene rants. It’s your thing. I hope you find an online site that will allow you to do so… though it would have to be a pretty nasty place. Yuck.Still, in spite of everything I will miss you, Muley. 😦 You’re like the little girl in the nursery rhyme:There was a little girl who had a little curlRight in the middle of her foreheadWhen she was good she was very very goodAnd when she was bad she was horrid.
Mule e-mailed;Guess I shouldn’t be surprised you guys would react like such little puppies after last night’s outcome. Better-than-expected (60+) gains for Rs in the House, expected to slightly-above-expected gains for Rs in governorships (30-32), and only a slight disappointment for Rs in the Senate. Heck, even if CO and WA stay blue, there’s still the issue that whoever is coming out of AK is going to caucus with the Rs. What??? You didn’t think Murkowski was a closet liberal, did you? Anyway, the worst case for Rs is they’re down 47-53 in that case. And again, that assumes CO and WA are blue, which is no guarantee. But back to the reason I’m writing this. I guess you guys are so pissed at getting your hat handed to you last night that you’re “taking your ball and going home.” In other words, you don’t want a Mule Rider around thumping his chest. Can’t say I blame you. Then again, it just reinforces the idea that you guys are sore thumb losers that are as bad as worse as the conservatives you try and lambast on a daily basis. Eat pie, honey bees. Enjoy your inclusive website without me.
Thanks for the update, Mr. U :-)Mule, please have a day full of kittens and gumdrops and pink, fluffy bunnies! I truly mean that. I echo filistro’s comments. You are capable of insight and challenging commentary. But the level of invective is not merely unnecessary; it also distracts from the effectiveness of your points. We need coherent and cohesive conservative commentary here. Obscenity defeats that purpose.
(per my usual, I replaced all the obscenities)
Quick question. Is this the most expensive elction in our history or just the most expensive non presidential election? A friend asked that question and I think it might be the first selection.Looks as though the newely anointed will indeed go for repealing HCR. Considering every thing one can expect the House to do just that, how it plays out after that is any ones guess but it will be moot because every thing will be defunded and our one chance to get a handle on the health care mess will have come and gone and no politician will ever again dare to bring it up. So even before we could see how it would work it will be gone never to be replaced……damn I’m so glad our present system works so well.
Hey Fili. Yep it’s me. The Gator daughter graduated and headed of to GWU law on a merit scholarship (she tore up the LSAT and had a 3.875 gpa at UF/ sorry had to brag a little), so now it’s just Gator. Could be ‘Noledad (except I’d throw up in my own mouth every time I said it) cuz the younger daughter is at FSU, but I grew up a Gator so…Plus my son will be at UCF in a year and then what? GatorNoleKnightdad? Too cumbersome (to my world). I would give the Klein point some consideration if I were the Dems. I’ve been hearing a pretty steady drumbeat from the Dems the last year decrying the Senate while praising the House. That same dynamic will be in place with the change being that the Reps can use it and their control of the House as a whipping point for the Dems and the Pres and point to their (Dems) control of the Senate. Nothing will get done and it will be really friggin’ ugly. I may be wrong, but I bet I’m not.
Yay! Pink, fluffy bunnies!Hey, enjoyed Skyping with DC, Michael, Monotreme, and (via e-mail) Filistro yesterday. That was fun.
Muley seems to truly believe that people are opposed to him because he’s right wing… or southern… or was raised poor… or whatever.What an odd mentality.Muley, sweetheart… people don’t like having you around because you GO ON THESE REALLY GROSS RANTS.What you really need to do is learn to use your inside voice. 😉
@MainerYeah, I could think of a lot better ays to blow $150 million. Heck, I’d take $1 million of that and start a business. Money is wasted on the rich.
Gator… so glad to see my favorite bartender! I’d give you a big hug except there’s… you know… all those TEETH.. I agree that nothing will get done. I just think the blame will be placed on the R’s, mainly because they’re going to be the ones thrashing around and making all the noise.Especially since the 2012 campaign started today, along with all the nomination hijinks. A mighty war is already brewing at FR between the Romneybots and the Palinites. It’s better than WWE!(Oops… sorry. Too soon? 😉
Just posted this @ 538-NYT. Don’t know if it will make it through the screen and/or if people will ‘get’ it.”For those here interested in politics and love – 538 -you don’t need to feel like – refugees – there are so many – .com – places to vent on the net. Happy or sad about last night? Talk it out. You’ll feel better.”
I would like to call out a small victory in Florida last night among a tsunami of bad news:Two amendments to the state constitution that limit the ability of ANY political party to gerrymander the state for its benefit passed with over 60% of the vote. It should make it more difficult for Tallahassee to slice up the state even worse, especially if Florida adds representatives after the results of the census.
Gator… LOL! Brilliant.I never, ever thought of doing it in code.The best thing… anybody who’s not bright enough to figure it out isn’t going to add much to the conversation anyhow, right? 🙂
@shortchain”Savor your moral superiority. It comes at a cost to everyone.”There are a few exceptions to your claim. The exceptions include a majority of the population voting in Republicans last night and, so far, every race in which I cast a ballot.
ok, enough of this gobblygook back and forth nonsencial crap, time for more of my professional insights and analsyis!the democrats just suffered alot of bad breaks here. Who would have ever thought that Evan Bayh would have retired. Charlie Crist messed everything up in Flordia, I heard that Alex Sink would have ran for senate had Crist not ran, she would have fared equally or better than Crist and Meek combined I think, and could have won that one, although it would have been close probably. Alexi was a flawed candidate, just about any other dem would have won, we had too many tough primaries (Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado) that hurt are chances, although Colorado news is now calling it for Bennet
Nate Silver gets another one wrong, Bennet declared winner in colorado, remember Nate said a 65% chance of Buck winning in CO, combined with 82% chance of Sharron Angle winning. Any of the Nate Silver bootlickers care to defend that?
Any of the Nate Silver bootlickers care to defend that?This really doesn’t deserve a response but I’d just like to point out that out of 339 contests, Nate got 332 right. What the fuck did you do today?
I still think the next Nate pollster review could be quite interesting.Still and all he did seem to get the patern down. I really thought the data was much worse than it was and while I am more confused than ever about the American electorate I guess I will have tome to keep working on it while the bus heads towards the nexy cliff…..I sure as hell hope we are as resiliant as a people and a society as we have been in the past.
@mike: Nate Silver gets another one wrong, Bennet declared winner in colorado, remember Nate said a 65% chance of Buck winning in CO, combined with 82% chance of Sharron Angle winning.All that shows is “garbage in, garbage out.” Were any pollsters or pundits significantly (and believably) closer than Nate’s predictions? If the polling information that Nate feeds into his model is flawed, then there is only so much he can do to compensate. Polling in Nevada was also sloppy in 2008, if I recall, so my take-away is that the big, national pollsters have trouble polling “oddball” states like Nevada. Likewise, Colorado’s partisan dynamics are in flux and similarly difficult to poll. Pollsters tend to base their models on prior elections, so they don’t always adapt well to a changing situation.So, while polling aggregations are useful in getting a “sane” picture of what the universe of polling is saying about a given race, it still comes down to the quality and reliability of the polls themselves. If there are any quirks that don’t fit the usual pattern, then it’s a fair bet the pollsters will guess wrong in how to model and adjust their raw polling data.
Cutting to the chase:The most obvious evidence this was a disappointing election for the right… none of them are in here gloating this morning, are they?Sorry fili, this signifies nothing. The Dems got their butts kicked and winger trolls are now/will be gloating until the cows come home.Re: MuleWas getting ready to say Mr. U is no longer a hypocrite and then he continues to post Mule’s crybaby nonsense. Mr. U, you’ve been wayyy too nice to MR as again, he would have lasted maybe (2) hours at Joker’s er a site w/rules and regulations, what a concept. Too funny, after saying he was leaving umpteen times he still can’t cut 538’s umbilical cord, eh.Cry me a River …Mule, give us a !@#$%^&* kiss! :)>It is interesting public polling has already indicated “we” expect the Reps new control of the House to disappoint from now until Nov. 2012, shocking! ;)As Bartles said: Ain’t governing a bitch!btw Bart, still no comment re: CO, which looks like more of a blue state today, as the Dems still control CO’s state senate.Hey, since Kasich is now governor of Ohio, maybe we should both move to the Seychelles Islands B) … or not.Also interesting the teabaggers are already going after Scott Brown, Susan Collins et al in 2012 as Reps continue to eat their young er cleanse their party making it pure. hmm, this happened in a European country not too long ago.And the band played on …Make no mistake ~ the Dems got slaughtered yesterday, even taking into account the Reps $$$ advantage and oh the irony as winger corporate special interest groups have taken over and will continue to screw “we the people” who gave them more power yesterday.We have met the enemy and he is us …>>>Mule Rider, wider than a mile,I’m crossing you in style some day.Oh, dream maker, you heart breaker,wherever you’re going I’m going your way.Two drifters off to see the world.There’s such a lot of world to see.We’re after the same rainbow’s end–waiting ’round the bend,my huckleberry friend,Mule Rider and me.apologies to Henry Mancini
Re: Nate SilverThe obvious: He’s only as good as the public polling, no more, no less, er if the public polling is wrong, he’s wrong.ieno genius!but, but, but again he does look better now that he has lost the glasses, but his hair is still a work in progress ;)Like most pundits, he has a firm grasp of the obvious …carry on
Eusebio,You may like the fact that there will be a recount, and the Republicans may also — but the fact is that everybody pays for it. And the direct cost is only a part. There is also all the litigation, plus there will inevitably be the questions about legitimacy of the result, etc, etc.So if you like the result, good on you. But don’t pretend it comes without cost. That’s a consequence of the first-past-the-post elections.
the problem with Nate Silver was that he even bothered with Rasmussen reports and similar surveys, they were obviously biased. to the above poster, Susan Collins is not up for re-election in 2012, the state’s other senator, OLympia Snowe is. The Tea Party already cost the GOP senate pick ups last night in Nevada and Delaware, they could do something similar in Maine and Massachussets next time. I expect Maine congresswoman Chellie Pingree to run and win should Snowe lose a primary.
It is interesting re: Scott Brown that in the midst of last night’s Red out across the country, MA was a blue out as every Dem was elected in congress. And not only will Brown have a tough time getting re-elected regardless, but if he’s primaried and a teabagger wins, Dems will save $$$ on the 2012 MA senatorial election.Reps won last night by default, unemployment still being a big problem and the Dems are in charge, plus low turnout in a midterm and the Reps $$$ advantage.No surprise.And redistricting is finally gonna catch up w/Reps who are being too clever by half w/America’s changing demographics staring them in the face.And just like 1994, the extreme wing of the Rep party will overreach and discombobulate er implode.
There’s a gator in the bushesHe’s calling my name.Molly Hatchett, somewhere in the eighties.
@Michael – I don’t think Bart will respond to your economic points. I think it’s telling to see what response he did have — deferring to a piece of alleged “humor” and citing election statistics. As we’ve stated, many people on the right are concerned more about elections than they are about policy. That his soundbites make good election-time advertising jingles, but very bad policy, is not a bug, but a feature. The bad policy means, if followed, the problems continue, and thus the advertising gimmick can be used for yet another election cycle. None of which requires any actual comprehension of economic theory.I am also beginning to suspect that many people on the right take serious and legitimate questions as being snarky comebacks that don’t actually require a response. I don’t think they like having their talking points examined, since these are accepted as truths beyond rational thought.So when you ask something like, “What is your definition of wealth?” or “Can you dispute the points I made?” or “explain the mechanism by which supply drives an economic recovery,” all Bart hears is “Neener, neener. neener!” because he really isn’t capable of examining the dogma lying beneath his talking points.