Those of you who have been missing Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight columns since the New York Times went behind a (partial) paywall might want to spend one of your 20 “free” ganders at his latest column, “Budget Politics in the Doldrums.”
With a government shutdown looming, Nate makes an observation, followed by a prediction:
- Observation: the public (save political junkies, like yours truly) isn’t paying much attention to the budget battles in Washington.
- Prediction: if a government shutdown takes place, people’s attention will rapidly focus on the budget battles, and the fickle public will quickly assign blame (in a not perfectly predictable, stochastic way).
Now would be a good time, and here would be a good place, to lay down your markers. How do you think this will play out?