Sabato’s Crystal Ball has put out it’s first 2012 electoral speculation map. And while it’s really too early to make any legitimate forecast for 2012; particularly since there is no declared Republican candidate, it’s still fun to play around with the numbers.
Now compare this with the electoral map of the 2008 Presidential race.
The 2010 census changes the calculus a bit. Because of an exodus of population from the midwest, some states have lost electoral votes while others have gained. The new distribution results in a net loss of six votes for the Democrats.
My personal picks agree with Sabato save for a couple of exceptions. I think Obama has a chance of picking up Arizona particularly if the Republicans continue to alienate Hispanics and Older voters with the continued threat against Medi-care. Obama could lose some midwestern states such as Indiana and Ohio but it still wouldn’t hurt his math. The other wild card is, of course, the state that the Republican nominee comes from. Having Romney on the ticket doesn’t necessarily mean Massachusetts will go red. Likewise, having Pawlenty on the ticket could mean that Minnesota would turn red.
So what road to 2012 do you see?
270towin.com has a fun interactive map that you can play with to determine win/lose scenarios for President Obama.
- Sabato’s Baseline for 2012 (politicalwire.com)
- Here Is Your First Electoral College Projection Map Of 2012, So Go Nuts, Nerds! (huffingtonpost.com)