The Final Mission
The brinksmanship is getting heavy as the game of chicken to destroy the world continues.
Atlantis makes the final landing signaling the end of the Space Shuttle Program. Wow. Thirty years. Where do you suppose we’ll go next?
Rupert Murdoch and the News Corp empire continues to crumble as allegatios of tapping phones of 9/11 victims come into question. Meanwhile, Fox News just ignores the depth of the scandal.
Did we miss anything? Let it out.
Free Forum Fridays are an open discussion where commenters are invited to bring up topics that may not have been covered in the previous week. Got something on your mind? Throw your opinion out there.
538 Refugees 
Yesterday I responded to a post that said there was “no chance of a (Republican) victory.” While I realize this is waaaay to early, you did say whatever was on my mind….
Let’s say either Romney or Perry is the nominee. For me, those are the two most likely outcomes. Bachmann certainly has a chance (especially if Perry does not get in). Palin, Pawlenty, and Christie have outside shots at best. While I still give the edge to the incumbent, let’s see if the R has “no chance” as Mr. U. postulates.
We know President Obama won 365-173.
– Reapportionment moves the R to 179.
– Indiana. Obama in mid 30s. Historical R state. Likely an easy R win. R at 190.
– Nebraska. Obama won Omaha by 3k. I just don’t see that again. R at 191.
– North Carolina. Obama only won by 14k statewide, 0.4%. I think we can agree his status has slipped enough to see this state back in the red. R at 206.
– Florida. Obama won by 1.5%. Approval underwater at 44/52. Stick Rubio on the ticket and this one should go red. R at 235.
Coin flips:
– Ohio. If electorate is anywhere close to 2010, Obama is in trouble. How much has his rating dropped from the 4% he won by? This is a coin flip but let’s say his numbers do dip at least 4.1% from 2008. This would put the R at 253.
– Virginia. Obama won by 6%, but his approval ratings have dipped. Let’s once again say the coin goes red. R now at 266.
There were two sizable assumptions there, but if so, the R candidate just needs one of:
New Hampshire: Obama approval lower than national average. Romney would have a very good shot, the other Rs, not so much.
Pennsylvania: See NH. I still see this going blue, but if Romney wins here, you wouldn’t even need VA.
Iowa: Purple to blueish state. I could see how Perry might win. Though doubtful
New Mexico: See Iowa. Would a Hispanic Rubio make the difference?
Nevada: Obama underwater by 10 points in approval. Again, Rubio could be the edge..
Colorado: Not much different than NV.
The above assumes the R candidate is able to hold Arizona and Missouri. The former, w/o a native son on the ticket, may be tough.
Granted I needed two coin flips (Ohio and VA), a favorable VP choice, and a couple swing states (AZ and Nev/NH/Col) all to go the Republican’s way, but it is possible.
I still say Obama should be be a 3:2 betting favorite at this point. But it’s far from the “iron clad lock” that Mr U. wants us to believe.
Since we are 15 months away, most of this will look foolish in a year, so how do I go about deleting this post in a few weeks. 🙂