Representin’ in the House

Here’s the raw data for the House of Representative races for 2012. We haven’t reached any conclusions but they will be forthcoming. Note that the 2010 census dictates that the lines for the districts be redrawn due to the 2010 census. Much of the forecast here is in a state of flux as a result. Feel free to toss your opinion in about a particular district in the comment section. Currently Democrats have 23 lean or toss-up seats while Republicans have 32 according to the Cook Political Report as of October 13, 2011:

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI     (PVI is the district’s Partisan Voter Index score)

AZ-8 Gabby Giffords R+4
CA-3 John Garamendi D+4
CA-16 Jim Costa D+3
FL-3 Corrine Brown D+18
IL-8 NEW SEAT D+5
IA-1 Bruce Braley D+5
IA-2 Dave Loebsack D+4
MA-10 Bill Keating D+5
NJ-6 Frank Pallone D+8
NJ-9 Steve Rothman D+9
NJ-12 Rush Holt D+5
NY-1 Tim Bishop R+0
OR-1 VACANT (Wu) D+5
OR-5 Kurt Schrader Even
PA-17 Tim Holden R+6
RI-1 David Cicilline D+13
TN-5 Jim Cooper D+3
WA-2 Rick Larsen D+3
WV-3 Nick Rahall R+6

19 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS

LEAN DEMOCRATIC

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI

CA-9 Jerry McNerney D+2
CA-24 Lois Capps D+3
CA-47 NEW SEAT D+5
CT-5 OPEN (Murphy) D+2
IL-10 Robert Dold D+8
IL-11 NEW SEAT D+6
IL-17 Bobby Schilling D+6
KY-6 Ben Chandler R+9
NJ-8 Bill Pascrell D+10
NM-1 OPEN (Heinrich) D+5
NY-23 Bill Owens R+1
NY-26 Kathy Hochul R+6
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+6

11 DEMOCRATS
2 REPUBLICANS

DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI

CA-26 NEW SEAT D+3
CA-41 NEW SEAT D+2
IL-12 OPEN (Costello) D+2
IA-3 MERGED (Boswell) R+1
NC-7 Mike McIntyre R+11
NC-11 Heath Shuler* R+13
PA-12 Mark Critz R+1
UT-2 Jim Matheson* R+15

8 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS

REPUBLICAN TOSS UP

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI

AZ-1 Paul Gosar R+6
CA-7 Dan Lungren R+4
CA-21 NEW SEAT R+3
CA-31 Jerry Lewis* D+2
CA-52 Brian Bilbray D+1
FL-22 Allen West D+1
IL-13 Tim Johnson D+1
MD-6 Roscoe Bartlett* R+13
NH-2 Charlie Bass D+3
NY-9 Bob Turner D+5
NY-25 Ann Marie Buerkle D+3
PA-11 Lou Barletta D+4

12 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

LEAN REPUBLICAN

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI

AR-4 OPEN (Ross) R+8
FL-8 Dan Webster R+2
FL-25 David Rivera R+5
GA-12 John Barrow R+10
IA-4 Steve King R+4
MN-8 Chip Cravaack D+3
MO-2 OPEN (Akin) R+5
NV-3 Joe Heck D+2
NH-1 Frank Guinta R+0
NJ-3 Jon Runyan R+1
NJ-7 Leonard Lance R+3
NC-8 Larry Kissell R+12
NC-13 NEW SEAT R +10
OH-6 Bill Johnson R+5
OH-7 Bob Gibbs R+4
OH-16 Jim Renacci R+4
OK-2 OPEN (Boren) R+14
PA-7 Pat Meehan D+3
PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick D+2
TX-23 Francisco Canseco R+4
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+3
WI-7 Sean Duffy Even

18 REPUBLICANS
4 DEMOCRATS

LIKELY REPUBLICAN

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI

AR-1 Rick Crawford R+7
AR-2 Tim Griffin R+5
AZ-5 David Schweikert R+5
CA-10 Jeff Denham R+4
CA-45 John Campbell R+7
CO-3 Scott Tipton R+5
CO-4 Cory Gardner R+6
FL-10 C. W. Bill Young R+1
FL-16 Tom Rooney R+5
FL-24 Sandy Adams R+4
IN-2 OPEN (Donnelly) R+7
IN-8 Larry Bucshon R+7
MD-1 Andy Harris R+13
MI-1 Dan Benishek R+3
MI-3 Justin Amash R+6
MI-7 Tim Walberg R+1
MI-11 Thad McCotter R+1
MN-6 Michele Bachmann* R+7
MT-AL OPEN (Rehberg) R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+6
NV-2 Mark Amodei R+5
NY-19 Nan Hayworth R+3
NY-20 Chris Gibson R+2
NY-24 Richard Hanna R+2
ND-AL OPEN (Berg) R+10
PA-3 Mike Kelly R+3
PA-6 Jim Gerlach D+4
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
TX-14 OPEN (Paul) R+18
TX-27 Blake Farenthold R+2
VA-2 Scott Rigell R+5
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler D+0
WV-1 David McKinley R+9
WI-8 Reid Ribble R+2

33 REPUBLICANS
1 DEMOCRATS

The 2010 census will require some states to redraw their district lines based on population change. Eight states will gain a district(s) and nine states will lose a district(s). Districts to be added in 2013:

  • AZ-9
  • FL-26
  • FL-27
  • GA-14
  • NV-4
  • SC-7
  • TX-33
  • TX-34
  • TX-35
  • TX-36
  • UT-4
  • WA-10

Districts to become obsolete in 2013:

  • IL-19
  • IA-5
  • LA-7
  • MA-10
  • MI-15
  • MO-9
  • NJ-13
  • NY-28
  • NY-29
  • OH-17
  • OH-18
  • PA-19

About Mr. Universe

Mr. Universe is a musician/songwriter and an ex-patriot of the south. He currently lives and teaches at a University in the Pacific Northwest. He is a long distance hiker who has hiked the Appalachian Trail and the Pacific Crest Trail. He is also an author and woodworker. An outspoken political voice, he takes a decidedly liberal stance in politics.
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