(Red Right Returning, a nautical mnemonic for the side of the buoy or marker on which to pilot a ship in order to stay in the channel, is a look back at the activity of the past week of the Republican candidates in the 2012 primary. Feel free to voice your opinions on the candidates in the comment section.)
Boo! For the Republican candidates things could be considered scary. Mitt Romney maintains his steady 23% in the polls. Which is not particularly something to brag about. The good news for Romney is that he is polling three times higher than anyone else in New Hampshire. If he sweeps three out of the first five states in January then it’s possible that he will have the nomination.
Bachmann has all her eggs in the Iowa basket to the detriment of her New Hampshire campaign. Her New Hampshire team quit amidst some harsh words (and lack of pay). But what once seemed like a lock for her home state is slowly fading. The other candidates; smelling opportunity, have begun to step up their previously tepid involvement in Iowa.
Not Jon Huntsman, though. His eggs are all still in the New Hampshire basket but despite getting the ‘Colbert bump’ from Stephen Colbert, his numbers are solidly single digit.
Newt Gingrich is actually seeing his numbers improve. He’s getting close to having double digit approval.
Herman Cain, inexplicably is still holding his high numbers despite running an unconventional campaign and a spate of rather quirky campaign ads. They seem to be focused on southern states where much of the action takes place in March. Cain still leads in national polls.
Ron Paul is still showing consistent support and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could capture an early state.
Both the Rick’s are down in single digit territory but Rick Parry has a fairly large campaign budget so expect to see him spend it in Iowa and other states. Parry stated recently that he might actually turn into a good debater before this was all over. Parry also made the blunder of digging up the birther nonsense after a meeting with former fake candidate Donald Trump. That may play well with the Tea Party extreme (themselves suffering from declining poll numbers) but not likely with the solid base of voters.
At this point, it’s all up for grabs but come the first week of February we could see Bachmann, Santorum, Huntsman, and possibly Gingrich exit the race. Romney, Perry, Cain, and Paul seem to be poised for the long haul at least until April.
Related articles
- Jon Huntsman’s Long, Painful Goodbye (swampland.time.com)
- Iowa up for grabs 2 months before GOP caucuses (sfgate.com)
- Iowa Caucuses Are Up For Grabs (huffingtonpost.com)
- Mitt Romney’s Rough Week Doesn’t Do Much To 2012 GOP Primary Prospects (huffingtonpost.com)
- Cain Still Leads Republican Field Nationally (politicalwire.com)
538 Refugees 