I honestly have no idea what I’m doing here, but someone had to try and get the new blog started. Mr. U is somewhere in Oregon without internet access, and Nate moves the original 538.com to the New York Times tomorrow, so I decided to grab the platypus by the flat, furry tail and just get started.
I’m pressed for time. We just started our new semester today and I have been on my feet since 8 am.
Tonight’s discussion topic, just to get us started: what are we to make of Rasmussen’s refusal or inability to poll in Arizona for the last four weeks? Nate mentioned this in his liveblog tonight and I’m interested in the 538ers impressions of this. Benign non-event or significant clue to the Rasmussen Method?
538 Refugees 
It’s good to see the start of the new blogsite. I hope to be a frequent contributor.If one wanted to be generous, we could theorize that Ras is simply still refining their model. Perhaps they don’t have a good primary likely voter model. Or perhaps they’re aware that this election is unlike any other, and so are afraid of committing to any particular prediction. McCain’s win does not follow either of the current media narratives, that the Teapers are taking over the country, or that America is in an anti-incumbent fever. Ras could show themselves to be smarter than anyone else, but bravely going against the common media wisdom. But then, Ras helped to create that narrative, so they may be reluctant to step away from it.
Hey, it works. Sorry I’m so preoccupied at the moment (and website learning deficient). Will get there in a few.
“I have no idea what I’m doing here.”~~~~~~~~~~Coincidentally the exact same words Bush43 uttered after the Supreme Court appointed cheney/bush president and Bush first appeared in the Oval Office!>Re: Rasmussen ~ Can tell you what their philosophy definitely is not! ~ Less is more …take care, blessings
Hang in there guys. All is going well…well at least it is going. I think this site should be fine as a fan site. I still check out what Nate has to say and even pop on and off the NYT blog when it lets me. If we are going to actually moderate this I offer myself up to help and will even self moderate as needed. Really want to see this work and take off as a progressive place where all ideas are listened too if not always agreed with. I have seen Bart and Mule on the NYT site and they seem to be doing fine. Nice to see that the lads clean up so well when it is needed. Let me know if I can be of help. This moving into retirement thing is seriously cool and I would like to have some thing positive to do when the brides honeydo list is less than eyelid height.