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Nate Silver Is a genius. Two years ago, Nate began to predict that Sarah Palin would run for president in 2012, or at least seek the nomination. In fact I believe he placed a bet with a colleague to that effect… something involving a steak dinner in New York City.
I’ve been on record for the same amount of time disagreeing with Nate. I thought Palin was too intellectually lazy to do the preparatory work necessary for a presidential run, too much in love with her new celebrity status to trade it for the hard slog though diners and donut shops, too enamored of big money to trade it for big headaches.
Now I concede that I was wrong. All the signs indicate she IS running. I think she’s clever and self-obsessed, and knows that she has to run if she wants to keep herself in the spotlight. Without a presidential run, the bloom fades off the Palin mystique. She becomes just another voice in the noisy conservative crowd. And because she’s already found how easy it is to quit something if it gets too hard, she also knows that she doesn’t need to WIN anything to stay relevant… she just needs to try. That will be enough to keep her fan base fired up for another couple of years… and Palin years are measured in millions of dollars.
But the best indicator she’s running is the growing panic in higher Republican circles. They are already holding tense back-room meetings, trying to figure out how to stop her without antagonizing her fanatically loyal supporters. However, by now Sarah Palin is pretty much an unstoppable force. What terrifies the establishment is that while neglecting New Hampshire she can win Iowa, which has a large fundamentalist, socially conservative Republican population, and roll on to the nomination from there. The schedule for her upcoming “book tour” hints at just that strategy.
This, of course, would be a dream come true for the Democratic party. Barack Obama would be able to compete against (and Republicans everywhere would be forced to defend) a woman who ran for the Vice Presidency on a Republican ticket without knowing what the Bush Doctrine was. There would be endless national conversations like the one recently conducted at this blog, about why Democrats are so disrespectful to conservative women. The entire campaign would be deeply, painfully embarrassing for serious Republicans, and reveal the party as fundamentally dismissive about the grave fiscal and foreign policy issues facing the country. They would revert totally to being the party of God, Guns, Gays and Gametes… and it would take them years to rebuild a more responsible national image.
But Sarah Palin doesn’t care in the least what her candidacy would do to the Republican party. She has the bit in her teeth, the wind at her back, and a burr under her saddle. She’s running wild and free.
RUN, SARAH, RUN!!!
Ed Note: A new poll out today doesn’t bode well for Princess Quitterpants.
Kathleen Parker pointed out the obvious several months ago …
If palin doesn’t run for president she increases her personal fortune and remains in the news 24/7 ie a celebrity!
If palin runs for president she increases her personal fortune and remains in the news 24/7 ie a celebrity!
So let’s recap, shall we lol
Regardless, she remains a celebrity and increases her personal fortune ~ America, what a country! ie Kato Kaelin, Amy Fisher, William Hung, Danielle Staub, Carrie Prejean etc. etc.
Outrageous/unusual behavior, even mediocrity er palin is now a pathway to stardom as the world is their oyster … oh the humanity! 😀
>
Part of the problem w/the 24/7 ad nauseam, cable news media/internet minutia drivel where, as Rachel/Jon Stewart pointed out a couple days ago, the (((balloon boy))) is now “breaking news” lol as cable news networks have to fill their time slots, eh.
You bet’cha!
When do you suppose all the skeletons in her closet will come tumbling out (if ever)?
fili said:
And because she’s already found how easy it is to quit something if it gets too hard…
I find it interesting how the left calls Palin the “quitter” but someone like, say Rahm Emanuel, quits and not a peep from the progressive left. Hmmm let’s see, Palin’s a woman and Emanuel’s a man. Interesting.
They’re already out as that’s part of the problem w/mama grizzly lol as she is basically a blank slate. Her wink and looks have taken her to the top. If she does run it should be quite a spectacle as one of the lesser Rep candidates w/no chance of getting the nomination will slam dunk her re: quitting her strenuous AK governorship half way thru because of “stress” and being picked on.
Which is why I still think she won’t run. Charlatan grifters are only in it for the $$$ and palin can attain her fortune w/out running so why bother …
She can still try to be a king maker and even that should be very amusing as many of her teabagger candidates went down in flames!
I would hazard to guess that there are two reasons for this:
1) Rahm Emanuel isn’t a Republican, so he won’t get as much complaint from the left to begin with.
2) More importantly…I bet Rahm Emanuel was asked to leave. Not so with Sarah Palin.
Rahm Emanuel wasn’t elected as he became Obama’s Chief of Staff out of loyalty and friendship, and he quit to run for another office in his home town to have more time w/his family.
palin was elected to serve (4) years by the AK voters and she quit half way thru to make a lot of $$$. palin could have still run for president by remaining governor and then announcing she is running and stepping down, which is what Emanuel did ie step down because he is running for another office.
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grog, there is a major difference as you continue to generalize and make make absurd assertions …
GROG
Rahm Emanuel was not elected to the position of Chief of Staff. Half-Governor Palin was elected to her office.
The President’s Chief of Staff has a fairly high historical turnover rate (G. W. Bush had — was it 4 or 5 of them in eight years?). Governor of Alaska, not so much.
Rahm Emanuel apparently resigned from an appointed position to run for an elective office. Half-Governor Palin resigned from an elected office and took a job on FOX “News”.
You said, “let’s see, Palin’s a woman and Emanuel’s a man.” While this is true, do you have any evidence that this had anything to do with “how the left calls Palin the “quitter” but someone like, say Rahm Emanuel, quits and not a peep from the progressive left”? Ot are you making stuff up?
Should we point out that Palin is an Evangelical Christian and Emanuel is a Jew? Or that Palin’s position was in Alaska and Emanuel’s was in Washington? Or that Emanuel has some brains and Palin can see Russia from her house? (Don’t take that one seriously.) Or maybe we should draw a parallel from their hair color? Eye color? Country of ancestors?
GROG, your comment was one of the most prime examples of non sequitor I have seen in a very long time.
be careful what you wish for, I remember in 2004 plenty of people on the right were dreaming that Dean would win the Dem Nomination because obviously, underneath it all was a very real unease that he would win, and that win would be more then a political defeat but a defeat in a great deal of what we believe in. By the way, there is a great argument in voting for Palin, President Obama.
obviously he would lose… Pardon the typo.
DC
Rahm Emanuel was not elected to the position of Chief of Staff.
So what. He was appointed by the commander in chief and he quit.
DC
Rahm Emanuel apparently resigned from an appointed position to run for an elective office. Half-Governor Palin resigned from an elected office and took a job on FOX “News”.
The whole point of filistro’s article is that she’s going to run for president, which last time I checked is also an elective office.
DC
GROG, your comment was one of the most prime examples of non sequitor I have seen in a very long time.
I’m just pointing out hypocrisy.
Palin’s main problem running against Obama is that she would not be able to use the competence argument against Obama that will be one of his major vulnerabilities in 2012. It was pretty damn apparent beginning with the BP spill and now his latest international embarrassment at the hands of the Koreans, Germans and Chinese that Obama is completely over his head as President.
Look instead for a GOP governor comparing and contrasting his successful executive work with the ongoing Obama clusterfark.
For there to be hypocrisy, we’d have to be supporters of Rahm. Last time I checked, he isn’t too popular among Democrats.
Also, consider this, GROG: being elected to public office and accepting is tantamount to signing a contract with the populace that elected you — in Palin’s case, the people of AK. To resign from office for minor reasons (and what reasons did she give, GROG? Can you tell us that?) is equivalent to walking away from that contract.
Rahm’s contract, if any, was with the President. If they agree to break it, that’s between them. Rahm didn’t owe any of the rest of us anything at all except to do his job while there as well as he could, to uphold the Constitution, etc.
So there’s no hypocrisy in failing to criticize Rahm on those grounds while calling Sarah Palin a quitter — which is actually mild, because what she really is is a con artist, who took the people’s trust and votes, and then dumped them when it became convenient, for her own benefit. She’s not merely a quitter, she’s unfaithful.
GROG, the difference between what you think you see and what is really there is striking.
You think that SP will be able to sell her superior competence in ’12?
Right. Undercut the President at every opportunity, like Cantor did just the other day, then claim he’s incompetent. How can a president conduct foreign policy when the opposition makes it obvious that they will not approve even the most beneficial treaties?
Of course, the benefit to the polity of the USA is doubtful, but that’s not important, so long as your party wins the next election, eh?
whats going on with the KSM trial?
robert,
Let us review the events of that debacle, shall we? Holder announces they are going to try KSM in NYC. Now, recall for us, robert, who first got up on their hind legs and started screeching? Here’s a hint: it wasn’t the Democrats.
Now, I’m not going to pretend that the Democratic office-holders are brave, principled stalwarts. Obviously, they are not, to our chagrin — and to the detriment of our nation — but it’s the GOP’s (and, most especially, the teabaggers) unthinking opposition that starts the process.
See? Our wingers are already defending her, and it’s already making them look silly. Because the only possible defense is “Well, she’s not much, but she’s not as bad as (insert name here)…” And that’s going to be a really hard argument to sustain for two long years.
But… 80% approval from Republicans!
Seriously… if she decides to run, who can possibly beat her in the primaries?
Emanuel left with the President’s blessings (and the relief of many others) torun for Mayor of Chicago. Palin quit anelected office for no particular reason other than she was tired of it. Remind me again why we’re even having this conversation?
Oh, I get it now. Emanuel and Palin are both quitters, but Palin is a bigger quitter.
@fili,
I don’t see where any “wingers” have defended Palin here. Bart didn’t and I certainly don’t wish she becomes the nominee.
Nate’s has two separate bets with Tom Schaller. For Nate to win both, she must run for the nomination and win. If she fails to run at all, Nate owes Tom steak plus cash.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/why-palin-will-run-for-president-in.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/palin-will-not-run-for-president-in-12.html
@GROG: Oh, I get it now. Emanuel and Palin are both quitters, but Palin is a bigger quitter.
No, I don’t think you get it.
There is no “term” for a Chief of Staff, who serves at the pleasure of the president as long as that service is mutually beneficial. It’s hard to find many chiefs of staff who served for a president’s entire term, it has to be really good personal fit for that to happen.
OTOH the governor of a state is ELECTED for a SPECIFIC TERM by the people of the state. It is extremely rare for a state governor to quit for unspecified reasons halfway through a term. Apart from Palin, can you think of any others?
Thanks WA7th.
I have no idea how you can still get into that archive, but it’s good that somebody can 😉
Their prognostications all look kind of quaint now, don’t they? That was before the Tea Party became the ravenous, unmanageable, self-destructive, terrifying monster it has become for the GOP.
The Tea Party has utterly changed the political calculus for Republicans. And it has made a Palin presidential run a real possibility.
Bush already completed the trade treaty with South Korea before Obama took office. Obama thought he could improve upon it and the South Koreans blew him off while negotiating a treaty with the EU.
The GOP is ready now to vote for the pending Bush free trade agreements, so do not blame us. Obama’s problem is that he is caught between common sense and the protectionism of his union sponsors. When in doubt, Obama will always back the unions. See the purchase of Chrysler and GM for the UAW and his backing of the Jones Act limiting the cleanup of the BP spill to US mechant marine vessels while the oil slimed the coast.
The determining factor will be the level of “enthusiasm” (i.e. rage) of the Tea Party adherents over the next year or so.
There were already signs before the election that schisms were deepening and people on the Right were tiring. When you move beyond screaming simplistic slogans and making dire threats, the “fun” kind of dissipates. The expectations of the Republican base are high, and the patience of the independents is limited. The Right, however, looks as if it just going to demonise Obama for two more years instead of advancing any kind of conservative agenda. It will be hard to go back to the voters in the primaries and say that two years of rage, taking State legislatures and Governorships, and the House was not enough to accomplish anything.
A national primary campaign featuring Republicans beating each other up for months on end will not be helpful in maintaining the obsession with Obama, either.
If the Right “loses steam”, then Palin would have a very hard time in the primaries.
I have serious doubts about how much power the Party organisation has anymore, though. It may not be able to exercise the kind of control over the rank-and-file that they brought to bear against Ron Paul in the 2008 election primaries. And I see very little loyalty to the Party itself among independents.
We might also see Palin taking an early lead, and then being attacked viciously by the Right itself. If she follows her past habits, we could see her drop out of contention by Midsummer, railing against the ugliness and playing the victim card yet again. This would leave her delegates “up for grabs”, forcing another ugly internal Party dispute.
The downside would be that the “not conservative enough” narrative would continue to live on if Palin is not the Party nominee. The Palin mythology will never die until it is tested – 2008 doesn’t count because McCain wasn’t conservative enough, per wingnut orthodoxy.
Michael:
Nice post about the NYT interactive deficit cutting engine. The NYT does not go nearly far enough with the potential budget cuts, most likely to force the reader to raise taxes.
If the NYT provided an option to reduce discretionary spending and government workers to 2000 levels plus inflation, then applied the offered entitlement reforms, the budget is balanced by 2015 without raising tax rates.
Why no comments allowed?
There’s just no end to your one-sidedness and willingness to ignore things in pursuit of your partisanship, is there, Bart?
The BS about the Jones Act is a lie.
About that trade pact with S Korea that the Bush administration “negotiated”, is it really a good idea to have a “free trade” pact which doesn’t open the South Korean automobile market? Auto imports are the largest component of the trade imbalance we have with them.
Which is why the “free trade” (which weren’t “free”) pacts weren’t approved before Obama came into office.
Todd Dugdale says:
I would not count on that. The GOP candidates will be taking turns seeing who can hammer Obama the worst.
Meanwhile, if unemployment is still north of 8.5% and Obama’s approval remains underwater by fall 2011, there will be one or more serious primary challenges to Obama just like Kennedy ran against Carter in 1980.
Obama has no place to hide.
shortchain:
The Jones Act covers transporting cleanup equipment into the area. Bush had to and did waive the Jones Act immediately after Katrina. No foreign countries would ship their equipment into the Gulf until Obama finally waived the act under pressure led by Bobby Jindal.
As to trade, Obama wants to set mutual trade levels, which is not free trade at all. Obama managed to turn the G20 into the G19 vs. the United States. Great job!
@fili,
She didn’t resign for unspecified reasons. The reason she specified was mounting legal bills to defend her from numerous, bogus ethics violations.
Can you think of another sitting governor who was asked to be a presidential running mate in the middle of her term, found sudden fame and was subsequently accused of so many ethics violations that all turned out to be bogus?
Bartles hates/despises Barack Hussein Obama and proves it on a daily basis as it’s his ad nauseam everything is Obama’s fault routine.
but, but, but you don’t have to explain things to him on a second grade level like you do w/grog!
Bart is very bitter/discombobulated his beloved Rep party got beat by a young, bi-racial, African/American Muslim born in Kenya!, eh.
Shocking!
Repeating:
Bart is very bitter/discombobulated his beloved Rep party got beat by a young, bi-racial, African/American Muslim born in Kenya!, eh.
It’s that basic! w/Bartles, 538’s winger spin machine …
It’s my article. It’s my first one on the new site. I probably got one of the settings wrong. I’ll go look.
GROG… they weren’t “all bogus.” Many were solidly grounded (I have a friend who’s been investigating the Palins’ [plural] ethics violations for almost two years) … but they were suspended after her resignation.
She didn’t resign to avoid legal bills… she resigned to avoid prosecution.
It wasn’t my post. Again, your reading comprehension is lacking. Look again.
Oh, you also can leave comments to any of the posts here. I just tested it again to validate. I believe you are having trouble reading the words “Leave a comment”.
Bart, we get that you hate/despise Obama, no need for daily reinforcement, but do what you must …
Which begs the question, as Aristotle would say 😉 why does Bartles feel (((compelled))) to show his hatred for Obama ad nauseam at a smallish liberal blog. What is he trying to accomplish other than …
Can you hear me now!
take care Bartles as again he doesn’t want his party to govern, he wants teabaggers to conquer and rule.
As Bartles would say: :::yawn:::
It wasn’t my post. Again, your reading comprehension is lacking. Look again.
Oh, you also can leave comments to any of the posts here. I just tested it again to validate. I believe you are having trouble reading the words “Leave a comment”.
~~~~
Too funny!
carry on
Fili, I applaud your infinite patience 😉 w/538’s resident grade school student.
Let’s hear it for liberal empathy!
Also for GROG… some of the investigations of Palin ethics vioaltions are still quietly going forward, and she is even paying for her crimes.
They just don’t get as much attention anymore because… well… open-toed high-heeled red sandals trump the good ol’ boy lamestream media’s obsession with boring old ethics right there, you betcha.
@fili,
Get back to me they find something on her that’ not bogus.
Can you name another sitting governor who’s children were so viciously attacked as SP? I suspect that’s the real reason she resigned and why she won’t run for Pres.
When GROG sets out to doggedly defend some indefensible rightie position, he almost reminds me of old buddy Charles (whom I greatly miss 😦
However when it comes to overall enlightenment, GROG is to Charles as a 100-bulb chandelier is to a tea light.
Charles did not glow brightly.
But he was dogged.
FANATICALLY dogged…. (shudder)
@GROG.. Get back to me they find something on her that’ not bogus.
I just did. See above.
@GROG… Can you name another sitting governor who’s children were so viciously attacked as SP? I suspect that’s the real reason she resigned and why she won’t run for Pres.
LOL… let the record show that GROG is still playing the victim card!!
Jeez GROG… don’t you righties ever get tired of all that “poor widdle me” crap? 😛 😛 😉
So let’s test the limits of the “Reply” function by starting a “thread within a thread”
I propose a thread of PALIN HAIKU.
(The only rules for haiku are :
1.) three lines of poetry
2.) 1st line… 5 syllables
2nd line.. 7 syllables
3rd line.. 5 syllables)
Damned w/faint praise even though we disagree on your premise:
Charles was light years ahead of grog re: intelligence as he was your playful/harmless disagreeable winger troll who occasionally said something rational.
538’s #1 masterbaiter lol
Again grog is a wannabe one-trick-pony at best.
I just did. See above.
No you didn’t. That was the same exact type of fund John Kerry and Bill Clinton setup for legal defense. The only difference…..Palin’s used the word “official”. That’s it. That’s all they could find.
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/06/24/sarah-palins-legal-defense-fund-was-illegal-ethics-panel-finds/
pregnant teenager
sexy winks, teabag frenzy
hillbilly White House
@GROG… .Palin’s used the word “official”.
Words matter, dear.
You all impeached a president for wrongly defining the word “relations.”
Look at me! I am
Incurious proud bimbo
Media whore babe
Half ex-governor
A Service Interruptus
Mote in your eye, dear
spiny echidnas
small furtive prickly mammals
give great haiku
polar bears are gone
glaciers are slowly melting
Palin is still here
😦
I think we’re up (down?) to four levels now. I will keep going.
Putin rears his head
Read all of ’em, any of ’em
Obama Death Panel
Palin quotes make great haiku.
Again like Roe v. Wade
where I believe are best held
on a state level
A living language.
Shakespeare liked to coin new words too.
Got to celebrate it!
It seems to me that
‘Good’ Palin haiku is made by
Prairie dogs too.
@fili,
So you do understand the only so called “ethics violation” Palin commited was using the word “official”? Right?
Get back to me when they find something that’s not bogus.
charge of the U. S.
Senate…really get in there
with the senators
So if a doctor incorrectly uses the term “board certified” to describe himself when he’s not … you’re just fine with that? You don’t consider it unethical?
not a patriot
pals around with terrorists
foreign… you betcha
Supreme Court rulings?
help me out here, Katy, I’m
drawing a big blank
Too many damn levels
Now our comments are smashed up
Formatting is lost.
the replies seem to be
all getting very narrow
like Sarah’s world view
LOL… this was fun
I think I’m onto something here. After slicing out 17-syllable pieces of Palin quotes, I’ve become convinced that they were written in haiku and delivered in prose.
That would explain a lot.
Best of all, anyone can do it.
If Mr U tried to do haiku it would be very difficult for him. His Alabama drawl puts three syllables in every word… including “cheese.”
Did you notice, fil?
The “reply” button is gone
We’re out of levels
Let’s see. Legal defense fund using the word “official”. Doctor lying about being certified. Yeah, same thing.
Yup, same thing. Falsely claiming an official endorsement that does not exist.
EXACTLY the same thing.
(Damn, I’m good 😛
You’re better than good, you’re excellent and well on your way to outstanding …
solo estoy diciendo
Give it a rest Fili, Grog and Bart will never change their world view. Can you imagine Palin trying to fix the trade imbalances with Korea or China. The winks wouldn’t work with the big guys, and she’s smart enough to know that, there would have to be a puppet master with her. Who would it be, certainly not Todd he’s as big an idiot as she is. Cheney is too sick and he’s done, Karl Rove is up to the job, but I don’t think she likes him. I think that’s the question you should be asking, who will be Sarah’s puppet master?
Yeah,I just wish you could read our comments. Such a shame. As if we never existed as 538 suppoters at all
Ummmm. No. OTOH I can’t recall any Governors who just up and quit either when the going got tough. Politics ain’t beanbag (whatever that means).
Just Sayin’… that’s a very stylin’ snowflake you have. I think it’s nicer than anybody’s. (Just sayin’ 😉
I think Sarah’s puppet masters will be the neo-cons, who will hope to use her incurious ignorance to launch endless wars. (It’s no accident she was “discovered” and brought to national attention by none other than William Kristol.)
“Sarah, we want you to declare war on Iran.”
“Okay, you betcha. Todd, what should I wear for a declaration of war? Red is kinda aggressive, and black isn’t good in photos, and blue makes my skin look sallow… damn, being president is HARD. You have to make all these HARD DECISIONS… okay, cream is nice, and it matches my shoes. C’mon boys, lets go start a war!”
Nonsense. Haiku easy.
In a southern accent
Cheese dip. See?
I’m going with Fili on this. Palin has nothingb to lose by running. In fact, she bcan buy herself a couple more years of free FOX publicity she wouldn’t get by not running. Ah the world is ice cream to the beautiul people.
You can access the comments using backtype. It’s a pain in the ass, but an option nonetheless.
Bartles ad nauseam drivel
althouse is Bartles other blog fetish ~ where it appear teabagger attorneys et al conservatives get together and agree w/each other 24/7 in a continual winger circle jerk …
Bart’s version of heaven lol
Thanks ma’am! The neocons controlling her is an incredibly scary thought. Bill Kristol has never met a war he didn’t liked. Laughing her off as a contender is just dumb. She’s gotten this far hasn’t she? Make no mistake she will be controlled. George Bush can blab all he wants, “that he was in charge” but everyone knows it was Cheney who called the shots. And the worst part is George is so much smarter than palin.
Bart,
Don’t tell me, tell factcheck.org.
Oh, and Bart? Free trade isn’t free if one side gets to protect a segment of its industry from foreign competition.
No. Nor can I recall another Governor who used their children as human sheilds like Palin. BOOM!
Betcha didn’t see that one coming.
Actually, your snowflake looks like one of my table saw blades.
Mr. U is right.
For example, GROG, is this the Official Tweet of someone who is worried about her kids being protected from public scrutiny?
@SarahPalinUSA Family gearing up 4 Thanksgiving break book tour; anxious 4 kids 2 have “what I did on my vacation” experiences in great US towns along way
Lest you think I’m cherry-picking (or in this case, pandering-picking), then check out her complete twit-feed and see if your statement holds up to even the most cursory scrutiny. I’d guess her kids figure in every 10th twit or so. Compare this to President Obama, who is actually, you know, protecting his children from public scrutiny.
Mr U has a TABLE SAW?
(Pause to readjust mental image…)
Oooo. I like it.
Kinda quaint, my post from yesterday that never appeared is now awaiting moderation above lol. Hopefully someone will moderate it real soon, eh.
Re: Althouse: it’s the other blog Bart frequents on a regular basis. Mostly conservatives who use ad hominems 24/7 against Obama and disingenuous winger sarcasm against Obama/Dems ad nauseam. It’s run by another lawyer, who like Bart has wayyy too much free time on her hands as she’s gone 6/7 years makin’ at least (1) post daily, which is he personal fetish. 😀 Keeping her streak alive lol.
Bart’s yin and yang, so to speak as he gets pummeled at 538 daily and has his conservative ego stroked on a regular basis at Althouse.
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And since this blog is no longer threaded, one must reference every damn post!
But no, I’m not bitter 😉 a certain someone complains and she always gets her wish …