Showdown at the GOP Corral

It appears that the first Tea Party vs. GOP battle is about to begin. The Old Guard is promising to vote against banning earmarks, despite having campaigned on supporting the ban.

Will the Tea Party get the earmarks banned? Or will the hypocrites win the day?

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29 Responses to Showdown at the GOP Corral

  1. robert verdi says:

    How nice of you to be concerned, by the way how is that leadership battle for the Dems working out?

  2. Realist says:

    As I read it, this is less a post about “concern” than it is one about “this should be an interesting battle to watch.”YMMV, of course.

  3. shortchain says:

    10-1 odds on the hypocrites!

  4. Monotreme says:

    That liberal lamestream media rag, the Wall Street Journal, reports that earmarks are just fine and dandy, according to Sen-Elect Rand Paul:Kaminski paraphrases Paul: In a bigger shift from his campaign pledge to end earmarks, he tells me that they are a bad “symbol” of easy spending but that he will fight for Kentucky’s share of earmarks and federal pork, as long as it’s doled out transparently at the committee level and not parachuted in in the dead of night. “I will advocate for Kentucky’s interests,” he says.Also see transcript of the interview; Paul’s staff claim he was misquoted by Kaminski.

  5. shiloh says:

    @rvHow nice of you to be concernedThe same way 538 winger trolls were (((obsessed))) by Obama/Pelosi et al the last (2) years and of course Bartles continues to be obsessed by Obama 24/7!As Bartles said quite eloquently 😛 Ain’t governing a bitch!take care rv

  6. shrinkers says:

    Rand Paul is already backing off his opposition to earmarks. We’re not getting rid of them any time soon.And as far as the internal way within the GOP, Michelle Bachmann is trying to seize a powerful position to which she is not entitled (not nearly enough seniority) on the argument that the Republicans have a majority in the House simply because of her.It’s fun when egos explode.

  7. Bart DePalma says:

    Isn’t it nice to see actual reform being debated?Ron Paul has laid out what will probably be the outlines of earmark reform. All appropriations designating a use for the money must be added and debated in committee in the light of day before a vote on the floor. No more larding the bills up at the last minute in the dead of night.The question is why aren’t you Dems joining in to cheer on the reform rather than ridiculing it?Does anyone here actually oppose this reform?

  8. Realist says:

    I’d be happy to see earmarks go away, though I also believe that it’s much more of a moral victory than a fiscal one.What I personally am ridiculing is campaigning on reform, then backing off after getting elected.

  9. Bart DePalma says:

    Resurgent Republic (GOP) and Democracy Corps (Dem) had Dem pollster Stan Greenberg run a poll of 2010 voters to divine a message as if that was ever in question. Go to the link below and then scroll to the bottom to get the results and the surprisingly similar takes of RR and DC:

  10. Realist says:

    @Bart,Once again, we have an apples-to-oranges issue with the data provided. Self-identification of party affiliation is only meaningful if accompanied by, at the very least, a question about drift (i.e., in 2008 did you consider yourself a D, R, or I). Absent that crucial bit of data, we cannot discern the difference between people who were R but are now I, and those who were I then and still I now.Thus, the conclusion that independents drove the election results may be statistically equivalent to saying that former Republicans drove the election results.Incidentally, you should be looking with a skeptical eye toward any poll results, looking for the subtle ways in which the questions themselves drive a particular narrative, either intentionally or accidentally.

  11. Bart DePalma says:

    Realist:Unless pollsters ask for prior voting history, Indis are a very fluid category as members of both parties slip into this category when they are unhappy with their party and out again when they are happier with their party.I am much more interested to see whether folks who voted Dem in a prior cycle have shifted to voting GOP in the next (or vis versa). I have not looked at this poll in any depth yet, but prior exit polling showed about 13% of folks who voted Obama in 2008 went GOP this time.

  12. Realist says:

    @Bart,Yes, that would be a decent proxy as well.I could believe the 13% number. That sounds pretty close to what my gut would say. And that’s a far smaller number than the number of self-reporting independents.

  13. shrinkers says:

    Bart:I’m all in favor of earmark reform. Personally, I think there should be no such thing as earmarks. But it is such a vanishingly tiny part of the budget that I think the time it takes to institute “reform” could be better spent on other things.For instance, a compromise on the expiring Bush tax cuts. One very simple and obvious compromise is to immediately make the tax cuts permanent on all income under a quarter million. This immediately helps everybody. Democrats and Republicans already agree on this, so it’s a great place to start. If Republicans want to make an argument for also retaining the enormous tax cuts on higher incomes (and if they can find a way to pay for the $4 trillion or so it will cost America), they can do so after the new Congress is sworn in. If they enact these tax cuts, they can make the cuts retroactive to Jan 1. Seems like a simple and obvious compromise, no?

  14. Toro71 says:

    I don’t see anyone ridiculing the reform, they’re ridiculing the speed with which ‘conservative ideals’ and campaign platforms are flying out the window.

  15. shiloh says:

    BartlesHispanic Democrats saved the day in California, Nevada, and ColoradoNo matter how you look at the elections on Tuesday, Latinos/Hispanics played a huge role. While the rest of the country was going red –Republican – the states of California, Nevada, and Colorado bucked the national trend and voted Democratic. Latino votes saved Harry Reid with a 9-1 Latino voter margin in a tough Senate race in Nevada. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado defeated conservative Tom Tancredo in his bid for governor, with Hispanics accounting for 6 percent of the overall vote. In California, Democrat Jerry Brown beat Republican Meg Whitman for the gubernatorial seat by 53.8 percent to 41.2 percent. Latinos backed Brown by a margin of 86 percent to 13 percent, giving him a 13.5 point boost. On the Republican side of the ledger, Hispanic Republicans were elected across the nation in record numbers. Republican Susana Martinez was elected New Mexico’s first Latina governor and Brian Sandoval became Nevada’s first Latino governor. Latino Republicans won five new House seats and one new Senate seat, giving Latino Republicans a record total of eight seats in both houses of Congress. Of course this doesn’t mean issues such as immigration or the DREAM Act will be on the fast trak, just the opposite things will get worse for Hispanics now that the Republicans are back on top of their game and in control of the House of Representatives. The bottom line is no matter how you look at the elections, Hispanics played a key role. Finally, the sleeping giant that we have all been waiting for this past decade is waking up from its slumber and starting to make substantive inroads into the political process.~~~~~be afraid Bart, be very afraid as Dems will find a viable Hispanic to run against these newly elected Latino Republicans …Indeed, as Hispanics become the majority ethnic group by 2040 the Rep demos are gonna look like crap, eh! B)Texas will be a major focus as it turns from red to blue in the next 10/20 years. Gerrymander that! lolAlso interesting your demigod Reagan had a firm grasp on CA and NY and it appears they are now lost to the Dems for several generations as your tsunami had no effect on those states.btw, have you recovered from your major disappointment !!! er (((Colorado))) … of course you haven’t. :-P>As I have mentioned previously ~ Latinos are the new Irish as the Irish came to prominence at the turn of the 20th century by organizing and unionizing to become a major political force in America!Again Bart, run for the hills …Oh yea, (29) million Obama voters stayed home in 2010 as Obama is already hiring the buses 😉 to take them to the polls in 2012!solo estoy diciendotake care

  16. Bart DePalma says:

    Shiloh:Nationally, the GOP returned to its Dubya level percentage of the hispanic vote, a substantial increase over 08.You might want to focus more on the Dem’s nearly complete loss of the white working class vote for the first time in a congressional election since before FDR. This is why the Midwest turned red.

  17. shortchain says:

    Bart,What makes you think the GOP can hold the “white working class” vote? After all, it was the failure of the Democrats to turn the economy around that drove the election results, not any imagined ideological swing on the part of the people. And there’s almost no chance that the GOP can engineer a recovery — not with their economic theories, even the relatively sane ones.Given the way the GOP is running away from the tea party agenda, I’d say the tea party is going to be nothing but a rump organization within a year, as all the “indys” who weren’t, in fact, merely Republicans who didn’t want to admit it after 8 years of incompetence, desert the “movement”.

  18. shiloh says:

    Bartles as you kept mentioning ad nauseam, the enthusiasm gap ie low turnout.This will not be a problem in 2012 for the Dems as again polls 😉 still show congressional Reps below the Dems, if that’s possible lol.Polls also show voters expect the newly elected Rep House to disappoint ~ shocking! :-PThe Dems got punished ’cause they were in power and now boehner/cantor/bachmann are the face of the in control of the House, Rep party.Good luck w/that.Again, the yin and yang as Boehner better start shitting some jobs!take care

  19. Bart DePalma says:

    shortchain wrote: “What makes you think the GOP can hold the “white working class” vote?”I do not know if the GOP can. If they do, 2010 was a realignment election and the Dems will remain an urban left minority (percentage of electorate, not race) party. If not, then we are back to “After all, it was the failure of the Democrats to turn the economy around that drove the election results, not any imagined ideological swing on the part of the people.”Even Dem pollsters laugh at that Dem spin. In reality, folks who self identified moderate in 08 shifted and self identified conservative in this election before voting for the GOP. The GOP and the President campaigned on Obama policies. The after election polling (Edison, Ras, Greenberg and Kaiser Family) all indicate that voters were pissed off at Obama policies and these folks overwhelmingly voted GOP. The last major recession midterm in 1982 had a little over a third of the Dem losses in “And there’s almost no chance that the GOP can engineer a recovery — not with their economic theories, even the relatively sane ones.”Dude, this will remain the Obama economy and the current government projection for unemployment in 2012 will be 8.5%. If the unemployment rate is still above 7.5% for four years, Obama will lose very badly.

  20. shiloh says:

    Bart, did you get all your winger talkin’ pts. in?Just wonderin’

  21. Bart DePalma says:

    shiloh:When Edison exit polling, Greenberg polling or Kaiser polling become GOP talking points, Dems should know they are neck deep in sh!t,

  22. shiloh says:

    Bart er Dude, (1) year ago you predicted CO would be ruby red. Oops!btw Dude, found some of your 538 CO minutia using backtype :)For your er everyone’s amusement: 😛BD: CO is a strong Tea Party state. The local GOP and Tea Party groups in the Colorado Springs area are now coordinating their campaigns to clean house in 2010. I am unsure whether this is occurring statewide.NY-23 went temporarily Dem because the GOP and the Tea Party were not working together. That is not happening in CO.> filistro; I see you have been hitting the egg nog very heavily. Have a great New Years and stay off the roads.>Colorado is politically divided between the Denver / 1/70 corridor and the rest of the state with Pueblo being a swing area. I realize that the El Paso/Teller area is pretty libertarian and conservative, which is one of the reasons I live here.>I am sorry, but your position completely undermines the sovereignty of the People over their government in our Republic. The government is supposed to do what we tell it to do, not what it thinks is “right.”Let’s turn the policy tables. Assume that President Bush and the GOP Congress after 9/11 proposed legislation to detain all Americans and aliens of Middle Eastern origin in camps for the duration of the War on Terror. The people of your good state strenuously opposed the bill by a 55% to 45% margin as CO does the Dem health care bill. However, your Senator thought instead that it was “right” to vote for the bill? Should he do so in opposition to his own constituents?>We are a representative Democracy. The job of a representative is to represent the will of his or her constituents in the government. A representative who tells his constituents to go to hell and then votes to advance his own ideological or partisan agenda is an outlaw who should be run out of office during the next election.Be assured, the voters of CO will grant Mr. Bennett his wish in 2010 and run him out on a rail. It won’t even be close.>Be assured, the voters of CO will grant Mr. Bennett his wish in 2010 and run him out on a rail. It won’t even be close.>Be assured, the voters of CO will grant Mr. Bennett his wish in 2010 and run him out on a rail. It won’t even be close.(((((emphasis mine lol)))))~~~~~Bennett is almost certainly toast in CO.Bennett is a liberal who was appointed by a Dem governor whose own 2010 reelection is in serious doubt.The Dem Speaker of the House plans to run against Bennett, splitting the Dem party.Bennett has openly challenged his constituents by saying he was voting for the Senate Dem health insurance bill even if he lost his job.It is doubtful that Bennett is any more popular than Obama in CO and Obama is currently in the low 40s here.Bennett is almost certainly toast in CO.Bennett is almost certainly toast in CO.Bennett is almost certainly toast in CO.(((((Again, emphasis mine))))) :D~~~~~take care Bartles

  23. shiloh says:

    FYI ~ added your egg nog minutia to show the time frame: Dec. 2009 er 44/45 weeks ago.Again Bartles, a wk is an eternity in politics!solo estoy diciendobtw, Obama is still president and the Dems control the senate :)take care, blessings

  24. shiloh says:

    Bart, as you know, I don’t usually make predictions ’cause, as a rule, it just makes said predictor look like a complete idiot!, eh. :DBut seeing how MA is now totally (beautiful blue) after the mid-terms, one prediction:Scott Brown, your fav RINO 😛 is toast in 2012, unless he switches to the Dems. ;)btw, it is amusing seeing your beloved wingers trying to (((bribe))) Joe Manchin into switching parties.Just one theoretical problem lol as once a Dem gets elected senator in WV ie Byrd/Rockefeller, (((they are senator for life)))! B)Much like a Rep senator in MS/AL.carry on

  25. Mainer says:

    Wow then Issa is going to have to investigate some thing like that. Hey some thing unconstitutional may have gone on or illegal……or really really dumb. Hmmmmmm is being really really dumb a crime? An awful lot of politicians had better hope not. So is this attempt to bribe a politicians on Issa’s list of 300 hearings? Yeah right when pigs sprout wings.

  26. Bart DePalma says:

    Shiloh:I guess the difference between us is that you are too chicken cah cah to actually take a position out of fear that someone will make fun of you if you are wrong while I relish the challenge and don’t give damn whether those who are too afraid to enter the contest lthemselves laugh when I am occasionally wrong.

  27. shiloh says:

    Too funny Bartles!I guessSo let’s recap, shall we:Not only is Bart wrong/foolish/laughable about his inane guesses, but most of his political predictions that involve close races.btw, sayin’ Bennett is almost certainly toast in CO. one year out was pure lunacy w/out knowing who his opponent is gonna be and the political climate of said locality.Indeed, being called chicken, correction lol as Bartles said (((I guess))) so he’s not too sure 😛 about his personal (((name calling))) or his political predictions, even though a year ago he chose to make a complete fool of himself, as per usual. In other words, you were hopin’/prayin’ (1) year ago, not predicting! ;)>hmm, I guess 😀 Bart doesn’t have a clue what he’s trying to say or something.But please continue to guess and predict, eh and feel free to call me anything you like, chicken or otherwise … as always, I’ll take it under advisement. 🙂

  28. Monotreme says:

    Larry Sabato and Alan Abramowitz offer a reading comprehension test: ensues.

  29. shiloh says:

    Monotreme, you’ve just given Bartles et al 538 lemming trolls their new winger meme er talkin’ pts. er spin …OTBsolo estoy diciendobtw, off-track betting is not allowed at 538!

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